The Mark of Debt: Hysteresis in Municipal Bonds in the Saga of Bubbles
We have written briefly before (July 2010 commentary) on the dangers of the municipal bond market. In this commentary we make the claim that the housing sector leaves a mark of hysteresis in the municipal bond market, which has already started to exhibit signs of...
A WATERSHED MOMENT FOR INVESTORS
Yesterday we ran performance reports for our portfolios1. Our composite return across all portfolios was 18.11%. For comparison, our aggressive portfolio's aggregate return was 35.95%. Annualized, these figures would exceed 35% and 50%, respectively. We started...
ΤΟ ΣΥΝΔΡΟΜΟ ΤΟΥ ΙΚΑΡΟY: ΑΝΑΖΗΤΩΝΤΑΣ ΤΗΝ ΣΥΣΑΧΘΕΙΑ ΚΑΙ ΤΗΝ ΑΙΣΥΜΝΗΤΕΙΑ ΣΤΗΝ ΑΥΓΗ ΤΟΥ 2011
Tα σημεία των καιρών υποδεικνύουν ότι οδηγούμεθα σε μία ιστορική περίοδο αλλαγών. Οι διαγραφόμενες αλλαγές αγγίζουν τον οικονομικό, πολιτικό, κοινωνικό, αλλά και διανοητικό χώρο. Ζει άραγε ο άνθρωπος μόνο με ψωμί και μη τάχει και «έχουμε πάρει τη ζωή μας λάθος» όπως...
On Logos, Retooling Growth, and Contagion Fears: Conventional and Non-Conventional Thoughts on the Occasion of the Days at the Dawn of 2011
On Logos, Retooling Growth, and Contagion Fears: Conventional and Non-Conventional Thoughts on the Occasion of the Days at the Dawn of 2011 A few months ago on this part of the website we wrote about the New Silk Road. Growth will probably continue at significantly...
The Descent of Currencies: Reflating Distressed Economies in the Post-Bubble Period
The late Kenneth Lay of Enron renamed his company from Enteron to Enron and moved the headquarters to Houston, Texas, ready to become the global trading conglomerate of energy, with the help of some powerful friends. (As things turned out Enteron – which in Greek...
Illusions, Economic Reality, & Aisimnitia in Times of Uncertainty: Do we and the EU Need Chairman Volcker Back?
One of the great joys of my job is to meet old and new friends who teach and/or remind me of marvelous concepts and ideas. One such incident happened about three weeks ago during an overseas trip. At a dinner I had had with I.K.M. - who had reminded me a few months...
Alea Iacta Est: Has the Die been Cast on the Eurozone?
Fact 1: In the early 1990s, if it were not for Europeans and the US, Germany would have had a pretty rough and bumpy ride towards its reunification. The direct and indirect funding provided by both sources made the difference for Germany. Fact 2: To keep attracting...
Seisachtheia Meets the Markets: The Fed, the Yuan, and India
First of all, a special note of thanks to a good friend (IKM) who recently reminded me of the concept of Seisachtheia. Thus, a historical reference is needed first (please note that this is not a diatribe on the concept, and I am only using the pertinent clauses of...
The Markets in Purgatory
They did it again. They rolled the dice again in favor of $600 billion in purchases, and when we count the repurchases of other paper-instruments (e.g. mortgages and MBS), the amount becomes larger, and that’s for starters. What puzzles us is that all media refer to...
Negative Yields, Inflationary Expectations, and Portfolio Allocation: In what Directions is Sisyphus Pushing the Rock?
Just a few days ago the auction for TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protection Securities) produced for the first time ever negative yields. When we take into account that TIPS’ correlation with the conventional inflation measure (CPI) barely exceeds twenty percent, then we...
