After Brexit: Now It’s Italy’s Turn
“Please don’t go” pleads the German newsweekly Der Spiegel on its cover this week, asking the British to vote against Brexit on June 23rd. Indeed, especially from the point of view of Germany, Brexit would be a disaster. We Germans would be left without a pro-market...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Central banks around the world stood pat and let Brexit take center stage in market commentary this week. The Fed, BOJ, and Bank of England all kept interest rates unchanged but bonds continued to rally over the uncertainty of next week’s referendum in...
Negative Rates and their Effects on the Equities and Bond Markets: Bifurcation Meets Bewilderment in Historical Perspective
Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) started buying corporate bonds. Over the course of the last four year the ECB has committed to “do whatever it takes” to save an ill-conceived monetary union and a dysfunctional Euro. Among its programs were the purchase of...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action As the Fed prepares for its June meeting, investors continued to flock to haven assets and safer equities this week. Bonds rallied, the Telecommunications sector posted gains, and volatility rose over 10% on Friday alone. Japanese machine orders plunged...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action A poor jobs report on Friday sent shocks throughout markets around the globe. The dollar abruptly fell as skepticism renewed over the Fed raising rates at some point over the next two months. Bonds rallied and stocks fell on the day as well. Defensive...
The Fizzling Out of Productivity Growth Rate: Examining the Credit Velocity Link
Productivity growth in the US will decline for the first time in over thirty years, raising the obvious question: How about all those magnificent innovations that constantly change our lives and transform our world from the internet of things to the latest smart phone...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
May 2016 Today’s world is threatened by many a ticking time bomb. Some, like immigration, financial crises or terrorism, tend to blow up suddenly; but the majority - including rising inequalities, ultra-low or negative interest rates, technological change,...
On the Dark Hidden Pools of Chinese Liabilities: Debt Binge and Capital Outflows
In September 2010 we warned of the Chinese Wall of Steroids, http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/The-Great-Wall-of-Steroids-Vol-2-Issue-3.pdf . In that newsletter we also explained the dangers of WMPs (wealth management products) in China where...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Investors continued to shy away from risk assets throughout the week as global shares hit a six-week low before regaining some ground on Friday. Money has flowed out of equities for the sixth straight week according to Bank of America and flocked to...
Risk Adjusted Returns, M&A, and Portfolio Structure: What Does Recent Market Activity Tell us?
Recent reports by major investment banks carry a flavor of pessimism, by suggesting underweighting equities and higher exposure to high yield. We are cautious over the course of the next few months regarding equities and we would suggest defensive tactics (such as...
