The Powerhouse of Structural Changes: Co-integration, Co-movement, and Disintegration
By 460 CE the Roman Army was dominated by Germanic troops. By that time they had also forgotten a basic lesson that it is the army that elects the Emperor. By 475 CE, the barbarian chief Odoacer replaced the Roman emperor with himself. The citizens of Rome selected...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
April 2017 The IMF global growth forecasts are on the move again, but for the first time in six years they’re on the up. They now anticipate global GDP will rise by 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2018, the same as last October’s forecast. Albeit a rather tepid...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action After France’s election equity markets took off across the globe, approaching recent highs. The Euro reached a five-month high after the results of France’s election and the nation’s stock market rose over 4% on Monday’s opening trade. China’s...
The Fading of Shocks and the Complacency Spirit: A Realistic Midterm/Longterm View
There is a sense of a cyclical recovery around the world. The shocks of the last 8-10 years (financial crisis, EU debt crisis, commodities downturn) seem to be fading, and in their place we observe rising expectations regarding growth. The latest IMF report on the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action French bond yields and spreads to benchmark German bonds narrowed throughout the course of the week as the nation heads to the polls. The race is a tight contest between four major candidates. Since no majority for anyone is expected, a runoff in May is...
Assessing Possible High Impact Outcomes: From Egypt to France, and from London to D.C.
As we go down the road where the improbable becomes probable and the non-tradable becomes tradable, we discuss below four possible outcomes that could alter the investment landscape. Those four are: The recently discovered offshore Egyptian energy resources; the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The dollar fell against a number of currencies on Thursday, particularly the Yen and Yuan, as President Trump declared China to not be a currency manipulator and that he believed the dollar was too strong. In addition, the President declared that he...
Complacency in the Midst of Market Cycles: Liquidity Pressures and Geopolitics
Money markets experienced some kind of distortion in the last 18-24 months due to global dollar shortages as the Fed got into the swing of “normalizing” rates. Money markets several times become the arteries of the financial system. If they get clogged, shortages are...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting were released this week and portions of their content caught markets by surprise. There was wide agreement among board members that the central bank should begin shrinking its balance sheet by year end as a...
Global Market Resilience: Noise, Global Trade, and Policy Directives
In the last couple of weeks a reality seems to be settling in the minds of over-optimistic investors. That reality says that it would not be so easy to enact legislation that will turn things around overnight. Moreover, investigations and questions about...
