Has the Unleashing of Animal Spirits Time Arrived? A Little Caution due to the Doom Loop
A year ago equity and commodity markets were in a panic mode. Chinese tremors, fears of deflation, oil prices below $30 a barrel, declining commodity prices (such as copper), and corporate earnings recession had infused fear in the markets. Now, a year later we found...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
February 2017 For the first time in years, we see the possibility of an upside in global growth rather than the opposite. Stronger data keeps coming from the countries/regions that matter the most economically: the US, the EU, China and Asia. Therefore, (1) the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Dow Jones has hit 11 consecutive closing highs, a streak that hasn’t been seen since 1987. Plans for tax reform this summer and higher GDP growth goals from the administration have helped fuel the rally. A number of economic indicators buoyed...
U.S. Economic Developments Meet European Politics: Upswing Targets Convergence
The equities market continues its upswing trend and as its tide rises, other equity markets around the world follow it too, given that expectations and economic fundamentals in other places around the globe (Asia, Europe) are rising too. A couple of weeks ago we...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another week and another set of new highs for major U.S. indices. The growth in stocks this week has pushed equities to their richest valuation (on a forward looking basis) since 2004. French bonds have been trading at double last year’s volume over the...
The Enigma of a Divergence: The Uncertainty Index vs. the Volatility Index
In last week’s commentary we wrote that the earnings, production, and income pictures look good and that the market has legs to make further earnings. The market continued in its upswing mode ignoring the above-average high multiples, but also the rising uncertainty...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action All three major U.S. indices hit record highs this week. Technology, Consumer Discretionary and other cyclical names led the way for the markets as enthusiasm for risk continues to grow. Crude oil prices were largely fell early in the week due to one of...
Corporate Earnings, Production, and Hourly Wages: No Enigma to Decipher
More than 65% of companies that have reported earnings in the last few days have beaten estimates, which is a little bit higher than the long-term average. So and as the graph below shows, it seems that the earnings recession is over and that corporate profits are in...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Markets ended the week strong in the U.S. but just missed posting gains across all three major averages. Earnings so far for corporations have come in strong with 65% of firms beating mean estimates. The U.S. jobs report showed a stronger labor market...
Worldviews, Solipsism, and Chissiaran: A Random Walk Down the Boulevard of Invincibility
Collective hallucinations are dangerous. Undershooting carries risks, but overshooting could have much more serious consequences. Ignoring history is detrimental. Hubris backfires and lack of foresight demonstrates foolishness. My fear is that in this meta-modernity...
