Market Signals, the Economic Cycle, and Enthymemes: Which Sectors Could Benefit?
We have written before that the financial stress index produced by the St. Louis Fed is a very reliable indicator regarding potential dark clouds in the economic and financial horizons. As can be seen in the graph below (updated as of the end of July), the index -...
Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
July 2017 The world’s main economies are still growing in sync, but at a slower pace. Next year, the slowdown will be greater than expected in the US (because of Trump’s unfulfilled promises) and in the UK (due to Brexit uncertainty). The Eurozone remains one...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action Spanish GDP accelerated at its fastest rate in two years during the past quarter. Spain’s economy grew over 3% over the past year according to recent data released. The accelerated growth and continued fiscal consolidation led to S&P and Fitch both...
Cheapening the Currency: The Wrong Way Forward
In the last few commentaries we have noted that while equity markets may be stretched, there might still be room to grow given the current macro-circumstances, corporate earnings, and business sentiment. In this week’s commentary we would let some graphs do the...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action China’s economy accelerated its growth rate in Q2 to 6.9%, with consumer spending, factory output and investment all posting strong figures. Retail sales were also at their strongest level in over a year. While critiques of China’s data are valid,...
World Markets, Bank Debt, and Diversification: Earnings and Other Drivers
As many analysts have pointed out lately, the equity markets at the current levels are stretched, but probably not over-stretched. Global equity correlations have been falling this year (from their high of 77% in 2009 to around 39% in 2017), providing some...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The Bank of Canada raised interest rates for the first time since 2010 this week from 0.5% to 0.75%. The tighter policy comes amidst upward revisions to forecasts for the country’s economic growth. The move will likely slow the country’s booming housing...
Substituting for the Credit Cycle: An Optimistic Perspective
There is almost no doubt that the extraordinary measures taken by the central banks around the world over the last several years uplifted equities, lowered cost of capital, increased corporate prospects and in general created a market upswing at a time when global...
Weekly Market Update
Market Action The U.S. economy added 222,000 in the month of June according to Friday’s employment report, which included an upward revision of to May’s report as well. While the number of jobs created easily surpassed expectations wages continue to diverge from the...
Valuation Metrics, Currencies, and Portfolio Rebalancing: Kantian of Fichte?
According to most valuation metrics, European stocks trade at a discount relative to those in the US. Consequently, fund managers are on a shopping spree for EU-based equities. As a result the Euro has been strengthening against the dollar. Certainly, the...
