Weekly Market Update

Global Market News

Global Equities Gain

Global equities ended the week higher amid strong earnings reports and a weak July jobs report. The US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.65% from 4.73% a week ago, and West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $83.55 per barrel. Volatility, as measured by futures contracts on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), moved to 14.9 from 18.6.

Updated Market Figures

BOE Holds Rates, Warns of Iran-Driven Inflation Risk

The Bank of England held its key interest rate at 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting on July 30, with policymakers voting 6-3 to hold — a slight hawkish shift from the prior 7-2 vote — while signaling readiness to raise rates if energy prices from the US-Iran war drive a sustained inflation pickup. Governor Andrew Bailey said inflation had fallen faster than expected, but that volatile Middle East-driven energy costs will push it higher again later this year. Bailey noted it remains “hazardous” to forecast how the conflict evolves, adding there is “an awful lot of distance to travel” before inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target; the Bank’s next decision falls on September 17th.

International Developments

Trump’s Gaza Disarmament Deal Wobbles Amid Israeli Strikes

President Trump’s road map to disarm Hamas has wobbled in the days since its announcement, with continued Israeli airstrikes and disputes over sequencing threatening to collapse the effort to wind down the Gaza war; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel “never agreed” to the plan and won’t withdraw troops until Hamas fully disarms, while his hard-line cabinet has accused him of misleading them about the terms. July was the deadliest month for Gazans since the October ceasefire, with 152 Palestinians killed, and at least 19 more died over the weekend after Hamas said it would surrender heavy weaponry only if Israel withdraws — a condition mediating countries Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey said Israel’s continued strikes are already breaching. Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov called the process “slow, grinding and technical work” after pressing Netanyahu directly to halt the attacks, and Israel has since expanded its territorial control in Gaza to roughly 70%, up from the 53% outlined in October. With Netanyahu facing elections within three months and Hamas wary that Israel has no real intention of leaving, mediators are increasingly eyeing a Northern Ireland-style phased decommissioning as a more realistic path than a straight handover of arms.

Record-Low Rhine Threatens German Industry as Drought Deepens

Europe’s rivers are drying to historic lows, with the Rhine’s barge clearance level at Kaub dropping to 21 centimeters overnight — the lowest since records began in 1880 — forcing ships to carry a fraction of normal loads and pushing freight rates to their highest since 2009. Steelmaker Thyssenkrupp has cut production at its Duisburg plant after losing access to its main barge fleet, while Romania detonated explosives beside the Danube to redirect cooling water to its Cernavoda nuclear plant, and Hungary shut down all but one reactor at its Paks facility for the same reason. ING estimates the disruption could shave 0.3 percentage points off German GDP growth this year, with chemical giants BASF and Covestro both warning of rising costs, though some companies say investments in shallow-draft barges since the 2018 drought have softened the blow. With little rain forecast through September, officials expect conditions to worsen before they improve.

EU’s AI Transparency Rules Take Effect, With Toughest Provisions Delayed

The European Union’s AI Act entered a new phase on August 2, requiring chatbots, deepfakes, and AI-generated content to be clearly disclosed and machine-readably labeled, with violators facing fines up to €15 million or 3% of global turnover. The transparency obligations cover AI systems that interact directly with people, emotion-recognition and biometric tools, and synthetic text published without human review, though the Act’s more demanding “high-risk” requirements — covering AI used in biometrics, employment, and border management — were postponed until December 2027 as part of a broader competitiveness push. EU officials frame the delay as an implementation adjustment rather than a retreat, but digital rights groups warn it leaves migrants and asylum seekers without the law’s strongest safeguards for over a year. As with GDPR, the disclosure rules are expected to become a de facto global standard as companies opt to apply one compliance regime worldwide.

US Social & Political Developments

El-Sayed Narrowly Wins Michigan Senate Primary, Exposing Democratic Rift

Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, winning by just under a percentage point — a margin of 14,893 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast, the most in recent state history. El-Sayed, a doctor making his first bid for elected office, overcame more than $60 million in outside spending and opposition from establishment figures including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, and will now face Republican Mike Rogers in a race both parties see as pivotal to Senate control. The primary exposed a real rift within the party — El-Sayed drew young and college-educated voters while Stevens held a strong edge among Black voters — and Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have already seized on the result as evidence of a Democratic “hard shift left.”

Senate Panel Obtains Fauci’s Government Phone Ahead of Contempt Vote

A Senate subcommittee has obtained a copy of Dr. Anthony Fauci’s government-issued phone from his tenure leading the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Senator Ron Johnson announced, days before a separate committee, chaired by Sen. Rand Paul, was set to vote on holding Fauci in contempt for invoking the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times at a hearing last week. The phone was transferred by HHS, led by longtime Fauci critic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and follows the recent public release of Fauci’s personal journals, which revealed he accepted a $1 million prize from an Israel-based foundation after ethics officials cleared it. If the Senate votes to adopt the contempt resolution, it would require 60 votes — considered unlikely given the chamber’s makeup. Separately, Florida’s attorney general has subpoenaed Fauci and joined West Virginia and Louisiana in a multistate investigation into his pandemic-era conduct.

Corporate/Sector News

Saudi Wealth Fund Completes $55 Billion Buyout of Electronic Arts

Electronic Arts has been taken private in a $55 billion buyout by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake Partners, and Affinity Partners — the firm run by Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner — ending the game maker’s 36-year run as a public company. The deal closed Tuesday, days after EU regulators cleared the transaction under the bloc’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation, seen as the bigger of two required approvals. The acquisition extends Saudi Arabia’s push to become a global hub for gaming and esports, part of the kingdom’s broader diversification beyond oil, though EA enters private ownership after reporting weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue tied to declining engagement with its latest Battlefield title.

New Jersey Sues Over Amazon Delivery Driver Pay, Alleging Monopsony

New Jersey sued Amazon on Tuesday, accusing the company of using its dominance over its Delivery Service Partner program to suppress wages and block unionization among the small businesses and drivers who deliver its packages — the first suit of its kind alleging a “monopsony,” where a dominant buyer controls compensation rather than consumer prices. Attorney General Jennifer Davenport, who is seeking treble damages and an injunction barring further contractor terminations, alleges Amazon dictates routes, pay, and performance standards while discouraging drivers from organizing. Amazon spokesperson Steve Kelly called the complaint “not grounded in fact,” saying delivery partners operate as independent businesses free to work with other companies. The suit adds to Amazon’s existing antitrust battles with the FTC and California over alleged monopolization of online retail.

Palantir Shares Soar on ‘Otherworldly’ Earnings Beat

Palantir shares jumped as much as 31% Tuesday — their biggest intraday gain in more than two years — after the company raised its full-year revenue and income guidance, with CEO Alex Karp describing commercial demand for its data-analytics software as “otherworldly.” U.S. commercial sales rose 149% year-over-year to $764 million, well above analyst estimates, and Karp used the results to push back on fears that AI developers building their own software would erode Palantir’s business, framing the company instead as a safeguard against customers becoming “vassal states of the language labs.” The rally follows a nearly 30% slide in shares this year on valuation concerns, even as Palantir’s European government sales continue to shrink amid a push by France and the UK to rely less on U.S. tech firms.