The world is on the edge of both an energy and a food crisis. While it is easy to point the finger at rogue leaders like Mr. Putin – who is certainly to blame for much chaos and destruction – the reality is there are structural inefficiencies in the global system that have long needed to be repaired. The conflicts of today are simply bringing to the surface the problems and risks we have always faced but have chosen to turn a blind eye to. In this week’s assessment of the Day After, we take a closer look at the European energy crisis that could snowball into a larger global crisis, as well as an impending food crisis that may be pushed over the edge by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Finally, we consider the idea that perhaps the greatest threat to global stability is humanity’s ability to end itself. 

Europe’s Energy Crisis May Get a Lot Worse

David Wallace-Wells, New York Times

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We are headed into the worst global energy crisis at least since the 1970s. Europe’s energy crisis looks as if it will come to a head this winter. In the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has responded to Western sanctions by drastically reducing LNG exports to Europe. Russia’s hope is that the resulting scramble for energy will wane the West’s support for Ukraine. While the European Union (EU) has approved a measure to reduce gas consumption by fifteen percent, it may not be enough. In the worst-case scenario, Russia may entirely cut off Europe from LNG, forcing governments to ration energy and prioritize certain sectors, such as the domestic sector. Industries that can’t make the quick switch to an alternative energy source may have no other choice than to shut down production. Before the crisis became so salient, there was unrealistic optimism about Europe’s ability to become independent from Russian energy. Such early discussions did not account for the time and cost that alternative energy sources would take to establish. Another major source of concern is the question of Russian oil exports. If Putin decides to cut oil exports, it may have far-reaching global consequences. The global oil market is tight – OPEC+ has signaled that a significant increase in oil production is not possible. In such a scenario, oil prices would skyrocket to hundreds of dollars per barrel, excluding lower-income countries from the market. These countries, already hurting very badly for energy, would not be able to match richer countries in bidding for oil. Putin’s use of restricting energy exports as a tool of war has the potential to snowball into a major humanitarian crisis.

The Beginning of History

William MacAskill, Foreign Affairs 

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In 1989, political theorist Francis Fukuyama wrote that at the end of history, “daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental concerns, and the satisfaction of consumer demands.” On the other hand, the author of this article, William MacAskill, believes we are just at the beginning of history but that the length of the future of our fragile humanity lies in our own hands. The most dangerous threat to humanity is its ability to end itself, whether that be through climate change, nuclear war, engineered pandemics, uncontrolled artificial intelligence, or other destructive technologies that fall into the wrong hands. However, governments have the ability to “ensure the survival of the species” without impeding technological progress, because the world will certainly need innovation to overcome the dangers it already faces. MacAskill offers a few recommendations for how governments can properly mitigate risk while at the same time promote technological advancement. For one, countries could enter agreements to collectively agree to stop developing dangerous technologies like bioweapons and instead promote the global public good. Currently, though, the resurgence of great power competition is standing in the way of achieving this type of global cooperation. Another avenue for risk management is the bolstering of intelligence collection and analysis that is aimed at known sources of risks so that we can develop resilient new strategies. MacAskill says our goal is this: “We must ensure that global cooperation reduces the risks of global catastrophe to near zero while maintaining the freedom and diversity of thought and social structures that would enable us to build a future that our grandchildren’s grandchildren would thank us for.” While the task is certainly daunting, the last few centuries-worth of innovations in governance and life-saving technologies provide reasons for hope.

The Food Crisis is Bigger than Ukraine

Nancy Qian, Project Syndicate

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The loss of Ukrainian agricultural products due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine will not significantly impact the brewing food crisis, which is more complex and varied than is currently reported. However, it has exacerbated the primary drivers of global food insecurity. Many factors such as climate change, failing institutions, and regional armed conflict are principally driving the impending food crisis. Additionally, leveraging trade as a political tool presents a significant risk; this may come in the form of Western sanctions on Russian exportation (Russia is the largest wheat exporter) or Russian export reduction as a countermeasure. Currently, around 80% of the world’s calories come from cereal; however, rice and maize constitute a large portion of the developing world’s caloric intake, while wheat is relatively unimportant in these countries. With regards to Ukraine specifically, Ukraine exports very little rice, 18 million tons of wheat, and 28 million tons of maize. Ukraine is therefore the fifth largest exporter of wheat and the fourth largest of maize. While the war has hindered and vastly reduced the overall export volume from the country, recent negotiations have remedied the issue to an extent and Ukraine has successfully begun exporting some produce once more. Ultimately, the loss of Ukrainian exports will not trigger a food crisis by itself, as there remains capacity for many countries to increase crop production and exports. The US has this spare capacity and reserve. Therefore, the US ought to increase production and broaden its food reserves so as to augment the global market favorably towards US agricultural exports and simultaneously provide insurance against food insecurity and mass starvation globally.