Welcome to our monthly newsletter which covers key developments in major non-US markets. With this newsletter, we highlight corporate, debt, and monetary policy news in European, Asian, and Latin American markets. We end this piece with a spotlight on commodities.
European Markets
Corporate and Business News
- The Eurozone’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed continued expansion in August, signaling resilience in the region’s economic activity. Notably, manufacturing climbed back above the critical 50 threshold, lending further support to the narrative of a soft economic landing.
- UBS is actively considering relocating its headquarters from Switzerland to the United States in response to proposed Swiss capital rules that could require the bank to hold an additional $26 billion in reserves following its Credit Suisse acquisition.
- Continental successfully spun off its auto parts division, Aumovio, which debuted on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange with a valuation of approximately €3.5 billion, marking the largest IPO in Germany this year. However, the listing’s subdued market reception reflects ongoing margin pressures and broader headwinds facing European auto suppliers.
- Novo Nordisk’s once-daily oral version of Wegovy demonstrated an average 16.6% weight loss over 64 weeks in a Phase 3 trial, matching the efficacy of its injectable counterpart. The breakthrough has energized European healthcare stocks, as investors anticipate a significantly expanded addressable market for obesity treatments across the region.
- Rubis confirmed it is in “very preliminary” discussions with multiple industrial and financial parties, following reports that CVC Capital Partners and Trafigura are separately weighing takeover bids. The news sparked a sharp rally in Rubis shares, reflecting investor optimism around potential M&A outcomes and renewed strategic direction for the French fuel distributor.
- British retail giant Next plc delivered a strong first-half performance with full-price sales up 10.9% and profit before tax rising 13.8%. However, the retailer warned of slower growth in the second half due to weakening UK consumer demand, higher employment costs, and tougher year-over-year comparisons—dampening retail sector sentiment across the UK.
- SIG Group issued a profit warning and suspended its 2025 dividend amid a strategic overhaul that includes divesting non-core businesses and absorbing up to €360 million in non-recurring charges. The announcement triggered an 18% drop in shares and cast a shadow over the broader packaging sector.
Debt and Monetary Policy News
- Eurozone headline inflation held steady at 2.0% year-over-year in August, with a slight easing in services inflation to 3.1%, the lowest since March 2022. This moderation in price pressures, especially in services, has led markets to scale back expectations for near-term rate cuts by the European Central Bank, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance on monetary policy.
- The European Central Bank held interest rates steady at 2.00% in September, with President Christine Lagarde stating that policy is “in a good place,” signaling the end of the recent easing cycle. This more balanced tone trimmed market expectations for further rate cuts, prompting a ~4 basis point rise in the 2-year German Bund yield as traders reassessed the ECB’s forward guidance.
- The Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate at 4% and announced a slowdown in quantitative tightening, reducing gilt sales to £70 billion for the coming year and shifting the mix away from long-dated bonds to ease pressure on the bond market. This recalibration steepened the UK yield curve, with long-end gilts rallying on relief from reduced supply, while short-term yields rose slightly as markets reassessed the pace of future monetary easing.
- Over the past month, French government bond yields have edged higher, with the 10-year OAT rising by 10 basis points to 3.54%, reflecting investor concerns over fiscal sustainability and political instability amid former Prime Minister Bayrou’s resignation following a no-confidence vote. The spread between French and German 10-year bonds widened to 79 basis points—nearly double its 10-year average—underscoring market unease as France’s debt-to-GDP ratio nears 115% and its bonds briefly traded wider than Italy’s.
Asian Markets
Corporate and Business News
- China’s steel exports are set to hit an all-time high this year, defying predictions that trade barriers would drive down shipments and threaten to provoke an even fiercer protectionist backlash against the world’s dominant producer. Exports will grow 4% to 9% this year to hit between 115 million and 120 million metric tons, according to forecasts from 11 analysts.
- China’s factory output and retail sales reported their weakest growth since last year in August, keeping pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to fend off a sharp slowdown. The data split economists over whether policymakers would need more near-term fiscal support to hit their annual growth target of “around 5%,” with manufacturers awaiting more clarity on a U.S. trade deal and domestic demand curbed by a wobbly job market and property crisis.
- Chinese e-commerce leader Alibaba plans to raise $3.2 billion through the sale of a zero-coupon convertible bond to fund international expansion and strengthen cloud computing. The bond will be the largest of its kind this year, showed Dealogic data, eclipsing DoorDash’s $2.75 billion deal in May.
- DiDi Global’s $740 million settlement of a lawsuit claiming it defrauded investors in connection with its initial public offering is expected to be submitted for approval by a Manhattan federal judge in mid-October. The class-action lawsuit accused DiDi of concealing and disobeying a Chinese government order to postpone its June 2021 IPO, which raised more than $4.4 billion and valued DiDi at about $67.5 billion, until it resolved cybersecurity and privacy concerns.
- Vietnam’s exports to the United States fell 2% in August from July to $13.94 billion, Vietnamese customs data showed, as a tariff of 20% on shipments to the United States took effect. Imports from China also fell 2% in August from July.
- Leapmotor’s global sales should hit 1 million units in 2026 and 4 million annually within a decade, with 60% of sales coming from outside China, CEO Zhu Jiangming said at the IAA Mobility car show in Munich.
- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) is deepening its strategic alliance with Jefferies Financial Group by raising its stake from 14.5% to 20% and forming a joint investment banking venture focused on Japanese equities and M&A advisory services.
Debt and Monetary Policy News
- Hong Kong’s central bank lowered its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, tracking a cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. It was the first easing by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority since a 25 basis point cut last December.
- China’s central bank said it plans to better regulate cross-border yuan financing between banks, and promote offshore use of the Chinese currency. China is ramping up the pace of yuan globalisation as Beijing seeks to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar amid simmering trade and geopolitical tensions with Washington.
- China’s producer deflation eased in August, suggesting Beijing’s efforts to rein in excessive competition and price cuts in key industrial sectors were starting to bear fruit. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics also showed consumer prices fell at the fastest pace in six months, but the core index rose to a 2-1/2-year high.
- The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China have extended a currency swap deal for another three years which aims at addressing any sudden liquidity shortage that would hamper commercial lenders. The arrangement, originally announced in 2013, will run through October 2028, with its maximum size unchanged at 350 billion renminbi and 45 billion euros.
- Japan’s economy expanded much faster than initially estimated in the second quarter, driven by upward revisions in private consumption and inventories, giving policymakers some assurance as they navigate political and trade uncertainty. Gross domestic product grew an annualised 2.2% from the previous quarter in the three months through June 30.
Latin American Markets
Corporate and Business News
- Brazilian President Lula signed an executive order aimed at luring data centers to the country by exempting some related equipment from federal taxes, as well as a bill to regulate digital competition. The data centers project will, according to the government, exempt key federal taxes on IT-related capital expenditures for the sector, such as on servers and refrigeration.
- Argentina’s economy expanded 6.3% in the second quarter compared to the same quarter in 2024, official data showed, marking three straight quarters of growth and coming just under economists’ expectations.
- Argentine President Javier Milei will sign a decree aimed at partially privatizing the company responsible for the country’s three operating nuclear power plants, as the libertarian leader moves forward with pledges to trim the size of the state. The Milei administration intends to sell 44% of the shares of Nucleoelectrica Argentina, through an international public tender.
- Anglo American and Chile’s state-run Codelco have finalised an agreement to jointly operate their neighbouring Chilean copper mines in a deal aimed at generating at least $5 billion from higher production and cost savings. The plan will bring together certain operations at Codelco’s Andina mine and Anglo American’s Los Bronces mine in the Andes mountains of central Chile, boosting production by 120,000 metric tons of copper a year and reducing costs by about 15% per ton.
- Brazil’s economic activity declined more than expected in July, marking a third consecutive monthly decline, a central bank index showed, highlighting a slowdown in Latin America’s largest economy as borrowing costs remain high. The IBC-Br index, a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.5% in July from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with the 0.2% drop expected.
- Mexico will raise tariffs on automobiles from China and other Asian countries to 50%, in a broad overhaul of import levies the government said would protect jobs and analysts said was aimed at placating the United States.
- Embraer said it has reached a deal for 50 firm orders for the Brazilian planemaker’s E195-E2 jets and purchase rights for another 50 with budget carrier Avelo Airlines, the first U.S. deal for the plane.
- Brazilian coffee exports to the United States fell 46% in August while sales to Latin American neighbors surged, coffee exporters group Cecafe reported, even as industry leaders said re-exporting Brazilian beans via third countries was not an alternative for getting past U.S. import tariffs. Despite a drop in total exports to Germany, the European country took the top spot as the biggest importer of Brazilian coffee, accounting for 414,109 60-kilogram bags.
Debt and Monetary Policy News
- Brazil’s central bank held interest rates steady at 15%, the highest rate since July 2006, for a second straight policy meeting and signaled it would keep them unchanged for a long time, dropping language that referred to the pause as an “interruption” of its rate-hiking cycle.
- Brazil announced a $2.21 billion debt renegotiation package aimed at supporting up to 100,000 agricultural producers, primarily small and medium-sized farmers affected by recent climate events.
- Argentina drafted its 2026 budget, which spotlights fiscal balance and hikes social allocations with 85% allocated to education, healthcare, and pensions. Argentina forecasts 5% GDP growth and expects inflation to slow to 10.1% by 2026, but October’s legislative vote poses challenges for Milei’s agenda.
- Mexico expects its budget deficit to fall slightly in 2026 to 4.10%, as GDP growth is seen ticking up, the finance ministry said during the government’s budget presentation. Mexico’s government has been under pressure to narrow the deficit, which it now expects will close 2025 at 4.32%, while maintaining a pledge to boost social programs and shore up the finances of highly indebted state oil firm Pemex.
- Mexico launched a three-tranche bond issue to partially finance a $9.9 billion bond buyback from state-run oil company Pemex. The issue consists of four-year bonds for up to $2.4 billion, eight-year bonds for $1.6 billion, and 12-year bonds for $1.3 billion.
Commodities Spotlight
Energy
Natural Gas futures struggle to find pattern
Source: Fundamental Analytics
NYMEX natural gas drifted in a $2.7–$3.2/MMBtu range as bloated storage (+6% vs 5-yr) and strong Lower-48 output offset weather spikes. Weekly injections (71 Bcf, w/e Sep 5) kept inventories comfortable, while LNG exports were choppy amid recurring Freeport outages before partial recovery. EU talk of faster Russian-LNG curbs and Nord Stream legal ripples added a modest geopolitical risk bid.
Agriculture
Corn in two months highs, Exports exceed expectations
Source: Fundamental Analytics
CBOT Corn Dec (CZ25) firmed into mid-September, briefly hitting a two-month high near $4.31/budhel as traders weighed record U.S. output against demand and geopolitics. USDA’s September WASDE raised production to 16.814 bn bushels (yield 186.7 bpa), while late-August crop ratings stayed robust (71% G/E). Brazil’s hefty safrinha kept export competition intense. Meanwhile, Black Sea tensions—including reports of Russia mixing grain from occupied Ukrainian regions—added a modest risk premium.
