Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month:

Re-election of Turkish President Recep Erdoğan

Facts

Turkish president Recep Erdoğan has claimed victory in the recent Turkish presidential election, reaching 52.5% of the popular vote and avoiding a runoff.

Erdoğan’s ruling AK party also gained a majority in Parliament by partnering with nationalist party MHP.

Potential Outcomes

President Erdoğan’s victory will contribute to Turkey’s shift away from Western spheres of influence.

Faced with a troubled economy, Erdogan has blamed external factors for Turkey’s economic woes. The Turkish lira has depreciated from 2.14 to the dollar when Erdoğan was first elected president in 2014, to 4.68 to the dollar today.

Erdoğan will aim to clamp down on inflation and to tackle Turkey’s unemployment rate, which has hovered around 10% over the course of the last year.

Uncertainty and higher volatility seem to be the main factors in the near future.

OPEC meeting demands higher production

Facts

At the most recent OPEC meeting on June 22^nd, OPEC countries agreed to pump 1 million more barrels of crude oil per day.

Oil prices rose 5% on Friday after OPEC’s announcement because markets were expecting higher quotas.

OPEC will shift its compliance rate from the previous 152% for May to 100%. The decrease in compliance likely means that, in real numbers, OPEC countries would fall short of the 1 million b/day benchmark.

Potential Outcomes

Despite OPEC’s decision to increase production, there is a chance prices could still increase as most of the member countries are not in a position to increase their output quickly.

Sanctions against Iran and political turmoil in Venezuela could prevent those countries from meeting the production ceiling. Additionally, a Libyan militia’s actions have drawn into question the country’s ability to meet the one million b/d output.

Some non-OPEC countries agreed to decrease production in 2016, but it remains to be seen how they will respond to OPEC’s recent decision.

Eurozone delivers new debt relief to Greece

Facts

The EU granted new debt relief measures to Greece in an effort to make debt repayments easier.

Greece now does not have to make payments on its debts until 2032 and must maintain a budget surplus of 3.5% GDP until 2022.

This agreement also states that any profits made by eurozone central banks on Greek bonds must be returned to Greece in two equal tranches every year between 2018 and 2022.

Potential Outcomes

Greece will still have to cut pensions and in reality will remain under the supervision of the Troika.

The drop in yields signifies increased levels of confidence and Greece will test its exit to the bond markets.

The Athens composite index of leading Greek equities seems to be attracting interest.

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