Given the unfolding events in Israel and Palestine, the articles we reviewed this week put a spotlight on Israel’s government as well as the mixed global response to Hamas’s attack and Israel’s retaliation. Digging deeper, we analyze how this latest crisis may be realigning the global balance of power. To end this week’s newsletter, we pivot to Poland’s latest election which is sparking hope of democratic progress following the previous regime’s increasingly autocratic leanings.

Israel’s Policy Failures

Déjà Vu in Israel

David Shulman, The New York Review

Causes for Despair

Raja Shehadeh, The New York Review

Hamas’s atrocities and Israel’s retaliation will change both sides for ever

The Economist

Hubris Meets Nemesis in Israel

Shlomo Ben-Ami, Project Syndicate

Hamas’s latest attack has not only shocked Israel and the world but has also highlighted the failure of Israeli policy towards Palestinians. As David Shulman puts it, Israel has ignored the over two million people living in an “open-air ghetto” for years and has offered no hope for resolving their plight. Coupled with the weakening of institutions and the influence of the far-right in the Israeli government, the blame for the attack can be laid at the feet of Netanyahu and his ministers. The onslaught of pro-settler policies and inflammatory rhetoric from Netanyahu and his ministers helped provide the fuel for Hamas’s fire on October 7th. Now, their reaction to the attack, which has so far been sieging and bombing Gaza, may escalate into an invasion. So far, Israel has already killed thousands of Palestinians (many of which are civilians) and has displaced over 300,000. The army has mobilized hundreds of thousands of reservists and has moved tanks to the Gaza border. Combat in Gaza would be bloody and would certainly lead to even more unnecessary civilian casualties. Other countries in the Middle East have warned Israel to restrain itself from such action or else risk an expansion of the conflict regionally. Soon enough, Netanyahu will face the Israeli public who are demanding to know how Israel was caught so off-guard. The horror of Hamas’s rampage and Israel’s retaliation is another tragedy in the Israel-Palestine conflict, but one that will have serious consequences for both the Israeli regime and the broader Middle East, not to mention the Palestinians who still have not seen any hope for a state of their own.

Global Responses to Hamas’s Attack and Israel’s Retaliation

Jordan warns Middle East is at the edge of ‘abyss’

Mai Khaled, Guy Chazan, Mehul Srivastava, & Felicia Schwartz, Financial Times

The Israel-Gaza crisis

Brookings

Following Hamas’s attack on October 7th, there was a flurry of outpourings of support for Israel in the wake of the carnage from governments and entities across the world. Now, the climate has changed with Israel’s bombing of Gaza, with some urging caution and others outright condemning Israel’s actions. It’s critical to understand how the Israel-Palestine conflict is situated on the global stage in order to infer the geopolitical repercussions of the crisis. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia group based in southern Lebanon, has responded with a low-intensity rocket and artillery attack at Israeli forces, likely hoping to show solidarity with Hamas without yet provoking a full-on war with Israel, which could quickly spiral into a regional conflict with Iran. Iran, for its part, has promised resistance against Israel’s campaign against Gaza and has threatened to open a second front with regard to Hezbollah. King Abdullah of Jordan has warned the risk of regional escalation is real, and has, along with Egypt, called for the creation of a corridor to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. Across the world, China has reacted with expected muteness, expressing sorrow at the human cost of the tragedy, while India has taken Israel’s side, given its close partnership with Israel and its own experiences with terrorism. Indonesia, another country in the Global South, called for the immediate halt of bloodshed while also blaming the conflict on the occupation of Palestinian territories by Israel, reflecting its own anti-colonialist sympathies given its past as a Dutch colony. The myriad of responses to the crisis reflects not only the world’s inability to come to an agreement on the issue but also the increasing importance of countries such as China or India in their reactions to developments abroad. Understanding the lines that these countries follow will help us understand events that are still yet to come from this conflict.

World Order Realignment

How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China

Yaroslav Trofimov, The Wall Street Journal

Putin Arrives in China to Meet Xi on Rare International Trip

Bloomberg News, Bloomberg

China’s Belt and Road Forum to illuminate scope of Russia ties

Nurya Kapralou, Nikkei Asia

While the US is distracted by the crisis between Israel and Palestine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping are meeting in Beijing for the third Belt and Road Forum. The forum has offered an array of opportunities for the two countries. On the economic front, the Russian president is busy seeking to strengthen economic ties in gas project development, the Northern Sea Route, and Chinese and Russian interbank messaging systems. On the political front, the two countries have developed a unified effort in support of Palestine, while arguing that US diplomacy on the Israel-Palestine conflict has been a failure. The crisis in Israel, then, has created the opportunity for both countries to strengthen their influence at the US’ expense. All in all, the Belt and Road Forum appears to be an attempt by both China and Russia to open a new chapter in international affairs, as the post-WWII international order increasingly appears to be on the brink of collapse.

Poland’s Election

After election, Poland may turn the illiberal tide

Ishaan Tharoor, The Washington Post

Poles celebrate a victory for pluralism over populism

Jarosław Kuisz, Financial Times

Opposition parties to Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party have won a combined majority, in a rebuke of PiS’ illiberal policy trajectory. While PiS won a plurality of votes at 35.4%, the party will nonetheless no longer have a parliamentary majority, as Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (30.7%), Third Way (14.4%), and the leftist Lewica party (8.6%) received enough votes to form a government. The results came as somewhat of a surprise, as PiS had maneuvered election law starkly in its favor, as attested by the flood of pro-government posters, films, and media advertisements. While the electoral results represent a departure from Poland’s 8 years of populist, illiberal rule, expectations are that it will be an uphill battle to reverse changes made by PiS to the structure of the Polish government, such as changes to the judiciary, that are well entrenched. Still, the results represent a democratic reversal in a country that was viewed as increasingly autocratic and they position the country to return more closely into the European Union fold.