This week’s edition brings together geopolitical change alongside economic opportunity. We start by reviewing political trends in Europe, as far-right parties gain strength across the Eurozone. We move into clean technology and the opportunity for cleaner and more abundant nickel mining, a critical component in renewable batteries. Diving back into geopolitics, we review NATO’s successful expansion in the face of Russian militarism and end with assessing the diverging economic and political paths for India and China.

The Rise of Europe’s Far-Right

Collapse of Dutch Government Highlights Europe’s New Migration

Matina Stevis-Gridneff & Claire Moses, The New York Times

Far-Right Parties Are Rising to Power Around Europe. Is Spain Next?

Jason Horowitz, The New York Times

Conservative Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned after his coalition partners refused to support his new refugee policy, which included a two-year waiting period before the children of refugees living in the country could join their parents. The collapse of the Dutch government is one of a series of examples that show how Europe’s politics are evolving due to worries about refugees. Traditional center-right parties are struggling to balance between keeping leftist parties happy and appeasing the far-right. Far-right parties and politicians are gaining ground across the continent, from Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s recent ascendance to the rise of ultra-conservative parties in Spain’s recent local election. Vox, one of these parties, has recently seen gains nationwide and may become the first right-wing party to enter Spain’s government since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco. Vox, like other like-minded parties, campaigns on anti-globalization, anti-EU, and anti-migrant attitudes. While more moderate parties debate between excluding the far-right or trying to normalize it, it’s unclear whether or not the trend will continue across Europe. Regardless, this political shift in Europe will likely have global ramifications.

Deep Sea Nickel Mining

Deep-sea mining may soon ease the world’s battery-metal shortage

The Economist

The world needs more battery metals. Time to mine the seabed

The Economist

The potential to open up nickel mining in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), a large deep-sea area in the Pacific Ocean, offers the opportunity to increase the availability of nickel while reducing the environmental harm characteristic of much of the nickel produced on land. Nickel, a critical component in batteries for power generation and the storage of electricity in clean technology will need to be produced at a rate of double 2022 levels in order to meet International Energy Agency (IEA) targets set for 2040. Yet, about half of the nickel mined comes from Indonesia, where rainforest destruction required to mine the ore couples with coal power generation to refine it, resulting in significant environmental harm throughout the nickel production cycle. Conversely, deep sea mining in the CCZ affords the opportunity for cleaner and less environmentally destructive nickel harvesting, resulting in more environmentally friendly production and greater availability of nickel ore. While the United Nation’s International Seabed Authority has failed to meet its July 9 deadline to create rules concerning deep sea mineral exploitation, the island nation of Narau has already sponsored The Metals Company’s bid to begin mining, with the hope that operations can begin once the UN commission awards provisional approval.

A Renewed NATO

Turkey agrees to support Sweden’s NATO bid clearing main obstacle

Ben Hubbard, Lara Jakes, & Steven Erlanger, The New York Times

NATO’s Next Decade

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Dmytro Kuleba, Kristi Raik, Angela Stent, Liana Fix, Ulrich Speck, A. Wess Mitchell, Ben Hodges, Anne-Marie Slaughter, & Stefan Theil, Foreign Policy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated NATO, giving it purpose once again. The alliance promises European countries protection against an expansionist Kremlin, recently growing with the inclusion of Finland and, after back-and-forth with Turkey, Sweden. Turkey’s decision to allow Sweden to join comes after it had been blocking Sweden’s membership due to demands that Sweden crack down on individuals whom Turkey considers terrorists.

Now, with two extra members of the alliance and a war-weakened, unstable Moscow, NATO is looking stronger than ever. However, the new era of geostrategic competition has brought with it new challenges for the bloc to overcome. First, NATO must find a way to include Ukraine in its security architecture, if not allowing it into the bloc fully, granting a better chance that Russia will think twice if it considers another invasion. Second, NATO must adapt to a power base which is shifting to the northeast with the inclusion of Sweden, Finland, and the rising strength of Poland. These countries have a clearer view of the threat that Russia poses to European security, and their voices will be amplified due to their newfound importance. The new NATO must also be able to plan for potential chaos in Russia after Wagner’s failed mutiny revealed the rotten foundations that Moscow’s power is built upon, and the bloc must also be able to withstand other populist forces from far-right groups in Europe and North America. The alliance has received a new lease on life, but it must adapt to new realities in order to flourish in this new era.

India Grows as China Stalls

China’s Stunted Transformation

Andrew Sheng & Xiao Geng, Project Syndicate

India and the Global Balance of Power

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Project Syndicate

Chinese growth is encountering headwinds as the country shifts towards a “dual circulation” model predicated on both internal and external growth strategies. The shift stems from a combination of higher wages and greater wealth within China itself, geopolitical headwinds as competition heats up between the US and China, the after-effects of the Covid pandemic, and a weaker-than-expected real estate market vulnerable to US interest rate hikes. These trends come at a time when India seeks to carve out a stronger role for itself in the world order, especially in balancing against China. With India having surpassed China in population earlier this year, and expectations for stronger GDP growth in India than in China through 2023, the country is set to expand as China stalls. India’s deepening cooperation with the US, both militarily and economically, will bolster this trend. Still, it is unlikely that India will fully embrace the Western fold, as the country toes the line between its participation in the Western-led Quad alliance, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, both of which Russia and China are leading members of. So long as China continues to face growing economic and political challenges, both India and the US are set to benefit, while Chinese progress, in the short term, stalls.