As we approach the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we are taking a look at the great-power dynamics that have emerged from the crisis. Throughout the last year, Putin has made it clear that it isn’t just Ukraine he is fighting; Russia’s primary enemy is the West. While we have seen great cooperation from the US and its European allies, the conflict has also exposed fissures in Western alliances. Moreover, we have seen a strengthening of relations between Russia and China which has brought elements of US-China power competition into the fray. We explore these dynamics, the war’s impact on global food security, and rising carbon prices in this week’s newsletter.

The Persistence of Great-Power Politics

Emma Ashford, Foreign Affairs

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The outbreak of war in Ukraine points to, if not a deterrence failure on the part of the United States, a failure of policy decisions made over the past few decades to maintain peace in Europe. It also demonstrates the persistence of great-power politics. In showing great-power politics in action, the war in Ukraine proves that the US cannot always deter a resolute adversarial power without accepting unacceptably high costs and risks. Rather than viewing the Biden administration’s policy in Ukraine as a distinct success, it can also be viewed as a failure in some respects via the inability of the administration to avert the war in the first place. The administration could have, for instance, voted to place a moratorium on Ukrainian accession to NATO. While it is not clear that this would have succeeded in averting the conflict given other motives that Russia has in its invasion, it is nonetheless important for Washington to shed the unipolar mindset and seek ways to avert the eruption of great-power conflict at US peripheral interests, lest the failure to prevent war in Ukraine repeat itself in other regions of the world, such as in Taiwan.

Putin’s Designs

The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions

Fiona Hill & Angela Stent, Foreign Affairs

Putin’s ultimate aim is to seal Russia off from the west

Tony Barber, Financial Times

One year after the beginning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine, Putin is still solidly in power, and he has not shifted his aims from defeating Ukraine. His recent state of the nation speech made it clear that he still believes Russia can prevail against Kyiv, and that the real enemy of the Russian state is Washington. His narrative is rooted in his Soviet past, colored by Russian imperialism. He sees the West as a degenerate influence on Russian society and has cracked down on opposition voices. He boasted that the Russian economy had become more self-sufficient due to western sanctions and announced that Moscow would suspend participation in the New Start treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the U.S. However, Russia has so far avoided a full-on fight against NATO, keeping military action within the confines of Ukraine. The Kremlin most likely believes that the West’s support for Ukraine will fade over time and it is exploiting partisan differences in western governments. While Putin’s motives remain unclear, it is apparent that Russia will continue down the same path it began on in February of 2022. 

EU carbon price tops €100 a tonne for first time

Camilla Hodgson & David Sheppard, Financial Times

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The price of carbon credits, a key tool in the European Union’s fight against climate change, has reached over 100 pounds per ton (around $120). This may lead more companies to seriously invest in emerging green technologies like carbon capture and storage. Prices of carbon credits have risen sharply in the last three years as the bloc puts more pressure on polluting companies. Companies complain that the unexpected price jump will weaken the competitiveness of the EU’s manufacturing sector, a sector that already struggled to compete in the global market. Studies suggest that this program reduced European emissions by 4% between 2008 and 2016 as power producers switched from hydrocarbons to renewable energies, but for sectors that generate pollution by their nature, such as cement and steel, it will be harder to achieve such a reduction. 

Russia and China Have a Stranglehold on the World’s Food SecurityAlan Crawford, Frank Jomo, Elizabeth Elkin, & Matthew Bristow, Bloomberg

Russia, China Challenge U.S.-Led World OrderStephen Fidler & Michael R.

Gordon, The Wall Street Journal

Russian and Chinese cooperation, in addition to the adversarial position that both countries maintain against the US and its allies, is creating an increasingly insecure world. Concerns over food security are heightening as Western nations grapple with the reality that the bulk of chemical fertilizer production comes from China, Russia, and Belarus. To this effect, the imposition of sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has had negative consequences on the world’s food system, as Russian shipments have become caught up in disputes between ports, shippers, insurers, and banks, even though fertilizers and Russian food products are not covered by sanctions. African, South East Asian, and Latin American countries will be most impacted, as seen in Peru, whose powerhouse agricultural export industry is suffering due to fertilizer importation issues, and Malawi, which is expected to face a significant drop in food production for the same reason. While some attempts are being made in Western nations to resolve fertilizer supply issues – such as in the case of Nutrien, Ltd., a potash mining company in Canada that plans to increase production by 40% by 2026 – in the short term, food security will remain a significant issue, with geopolitical tensions amplifying negative trends.

Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation continues to deteriorate. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the suspension of Russia’s participation in the new START treaty, which was the last major strategic nuclear arms reduction treaty that is still in effect. Also this week, Germany hosted the Munich Security Conference, at which China’s top diplomat Wang Yi came out as sharply critical of the United States, particularly as pertains to Taiwan. Following the conference, Wang Yi visited Moscow, signaling increasingly close ties between China and Russia. Should China continue to provide or even strengthen support to Russia, for example through direct arms deliveries, European states may begin to follow the US lead and reduce economic and diplomatic ties with China and increase security ties with the US, thereby adding strain to an already tense geopolitical situation. In the short term, then, competition and conflict are set to heat up, rather than cool off.