Tensions between Russia and the West have reached new heights. While it is no mystery that Moscow desires to reassert itself in the world order and return to bipolar spheres of influence, it is unclear to Western leaders just how far Putin will go. As Russia could be just days away from invading Ukraine, and as China steps up its meddling in European markets, the strength and fortitude of the US and Europe, and their Western alliance, are being tested.

The Russia Problem

As War Looms Larger, What are Russia’s Military Options in Ukraine? – The Economist
How the West Should Treat a “Bad Guy” – Alexander Podrabinek, Desk Russie

As Russian president Vladimir Putin continues to rattle his saber in Ukraine, Western leaders remain unsure if his military maneuvering is the precursor to open conflict or a geopolitical strategy to extract concessions from the West. The Kremlin has long utilized the strategy of endless negotiation to build tension and thwart progress in areas to which it lays some form of claim. Then, when it sees an opportunity for low-resistance expansion, it brings military force to bear, as evidenced by the Crimean annexation in 2014. The key element of Moscow’s decision is the expected response from the West: as each subsequent push at the boundaries of international decorum is met by less resistance, the likelihood of meaningful consequences diminishes, empowering Russian aggression. Further complicating the situation is Ukraine’s position outside of NATO and the uncertainty regarding the scope of Russia’s aims in the country. As Moscow has made clear, Putin desires a return to bipolar spheres of influence; with the West weakened by an unstable US government and gas-dependent European states, he may see an opportunity to strike while the iron is hot. Still, outright war with Ukraine would be costly and unpredictable, even without direct NATO intervention. As Russian troops continue to muster in western Russia and eastern Belarus, a strong Western response is imperative to preserving Ukraine’s ongoing autonomy.

For a deeper look at the mounting tensions in Ukraine, we recommend this informative brief from the Center for Strategic & International Studies: Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine

The Imperial Desires of Russia and China are Testing the West 

Russia, China and the Bid for Empire – Robert D. Kaplan, Wall Street Journal

China and Russia test the limits of EU power – Gideon Rachman, Financial Times 

China and Russia take pride in their empires of the past. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be trying to take over Taiwan and Ukraine today. Both countries share the desire of expanding their influence and of reclaiming the missing pieces of their imperial geography. The problem today is not necessarily one of traditional imperialism, but instead it is “the melding of imperialism with Leninist methods of control, which continue to define Russian and Chinese rule.” As Kaplan argues, the mission of the US and its Western allies is to be a status quo power, holding off the advance of China and Russia but not defeating them or seeking all-out victory. As long as Ukraine remains independent and democratic, and so long as Taiwan isn’t incorporated into China, the West accomplishes its mission. Furthermore, we learn from history that internal strife is often the downfall of an empire, and both China and Russia have plenty of domestic issues they are facing. 

However, the real question is, can the West fulfill the role of a status quo power? China and Russia are certainly testing the limits of American power, but perhaps more obviously so, they are testing the limits of Europe’s geopolitical power. The European Union (EU) has been sidelined in talks over the Ukraine crisis, even though it is a matter of war and peace on the European continent. This is not entirely surprising given the EU is not a military power, nor is Ukraine an EU member state, but it has still been a bit humiliating to some EU officials. The EU is also struggling to find an appropriate response to China’s economic aggression towards Lithuania, an EU member. For upgrading its relationship with Taiwan, China has punished Lithuania by blocking all trade with the country and also by blocking all products containing components made in Lithuania. The latter is a direct hit to the EU’s supply chain, making it clear that China has also taken aim at the integrity of Europe’s single market. Concerns of Europe’s geopolitical inadequacy are mounting: “If China successfully bullies Lithuania while the EU watches impotently from the sidelines, that lesson will be noted — not just in Beijing, but in Moscow and Washington, too.”

A World of Mounting Disarray

Richard Haass, Project Syndicate

Read the full article here 

Richard Haass wrote a book five years ago called A World in Disarray. At the time of publishing, the book received criticism for being too pessimistic, yet, here we are today in a world where disarray is mounting and where conflict is more prevalent than cooperation. The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed inadequacies of the global health system and widened the inequality gap. Climate change is advancing rapidly, and while governments have stepped up their climate action pledges, there has been little action and a lack of urgency so far. Nuclear proliferation is continuing, with Iran months or even weeks from possessing a nuclear weapon. Cyberspace remains a “Wild West”: un-patrolled and absent of boundaries on acceptable behavior. The great power rivalry between the US and China is intensifying, and Russia is increasingly dissatisfied with its place in the world order. More than 80 million people have been displaced, and democracy is in “retreat” around the world. Finally, the US is in “greater disarray” domestically than it was five years ago, causing the country to pull back from its global leadership position. On the other hand, Haass also mentions some positive developments which spark a hope for improvement, including new green technologies, the rapid creation of Covid-19 vaccines, growing cooperation between the US and its allies to challenge China, and the mere fact that the world hasn’t descended into war. For the world to reverse the current state of disarray, innovation, breakthrough diplomacy, and, most importantly, collective will are necessary. 

What is Russia’s Logic for the Current Crisis?

Maxim A. Suchkov, War on the Rocks

Read the full article here 

Russia wants NATO out of its hair. That is the abridged version of over twenty years of negotiations between Putin’s administration and the US. Most recently, Russia’s call for greater autonomy in its security exercises comes on the heels of a provocative buildup of forces near the Ukrainian border, which some see as a move to force the White House to take Putin’s demands seriously. These demands, which include no concessions from Russia’s side, include some short-term and some long-term changes to how NATO interacts with Russia. Moscow has been frustrated by NATO’s expansion before, first in the Bush administration and again under Obama. Now, as the US has built up Ukraine’s military, Russia once again feels threatened and has retaliated. As diplomacy stagnates, more aggressive options are put on the table. Even though the US currently sees China as its primary global competitor (much to the chagrin of the Kremlin), Russia’s extensive military capabilities keep the US at the table to work towards “strategic stability.” As the US populace increasingly supports a restrained foreign policy, the Russo-American relationship may be set for a new chapter. The implications of such a shift will be massive, and they are likely to begin in Ukraine.