While the world is in a seemingly constant state of rising tensions, several events seem to have accelerated the pace. For this week’s geopolitical summaries, we examine the context for several of these conflicts while also looking at a potential way forward. To start, we dive into the strengthening axis between China and Russia, before shifting to a look at how the pandemic brought out trends in favor of globalization. From there we transition to a look at growing US-Iran tensions before ending with an exploration of Turkey’s complex relationships with Ukraine, the US, and Russia. With fracturing forces on the rise, level heads must prevail if the global order is to flourish.

China and Russia Turn Deeper Ties into a Military Challenge for Biden

Jack Detsch and Amy Mackinnon, Foreign Policy
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With Russia and China ramping up pressure on the Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, the Pentagon is concerned that it could soon find itself fighting a war on two fronts. While there is no evidence that the two are coordinating their actions, the “frenemy” relationship of the Sino-Russian axis has done little to assuage fears that the US could soon face a two-pronged assault. The two countries have seen better relations since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 – a deluge of sanctions forced Russia to seek new trading partners, and its search led it to China. Military ties have deepened on both sides of the border, with China clearly the senior partner in a largely transactional relationship.  Russia has had to reckon with its new role as the third wheel to the US-China conflict; with China’s military on pace to become fully self-sufficient within the decade, Moscow must move quickly to cement its place in any potential alliance by supplying China with military hardware today. Given the extreme difficulty of a two-front war, the US has been anxious to break up China and Russia’s partnership, with varying degrees of success. Strategic planners in the Pentagon will have their work cut out for them.

Globalization’s Coming Golden Age

Harold James, Foreign Affairs
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The severe disruption to supply chains and fracturing multilateral trust as a result of the coronavirus pandemic struck a blow to globalization, but history shows that even periods of turmoil can strengthen international cooperation. The first globalization period is thought to have occurred in the mid-19th century, with food shortages leading to demands for more competent governments, and ultimately global competition. After the World Wars dramatically shifted the balance of power, shortages and scarcity set the stage for today’s form of globalization. Both periods saw their demand shocks addressed by inflation, with seemingly greater wealth driving consumer demand and thereby production. However, the pace of inflation in the 1970’s brought back the original catalyst of globalization: perceptible governmental incompetence. New forms of cooperation, such as the G-7 and G-20, were created to address the monetary crisis. Those institutions have now been tested by the pandemic, but unlike in the past, today’s economic shock is not the result of a drop in demand. Questions of scarcity and government incompetence abound. At the same time, interconnecting technologies, demand for cheap, reliable products, and collaborative innovation are changing the landscape of cooperation. The tide of history seems to be rushing into a revitalization of globalization.

Iran: Nuclear Talks Intensify Domestic Power Struggle

Najmeh Bozorgmehr, Financial Times
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Former US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy on Iran has, arguably, emboldened Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime and hardline supporters who despise the West. On the other hand, President Joe Biden’s desire for the US to re-enter the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement has fueled Iran’s reformists who want to restart the nuclear accord, complicating the country’s political scene before presidential elections are held on June 18th. Reformists fear a win for hardliners could severely limit room for negotiation over the nuclear deal and feed hawkish sentiment towards regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Israel, which could, in turn, lead to more economic pressure on the country. Hardliners fear a combination of a pro-reform government in Tehran and a Democratic administration in Washington could pave the way for US intervention in Iran. Threatening the success of either side is a low voter turnout. Current estimates show the turnout could be as little as 40% as an increasing number of young, educated young people are taking to social media to express their discontent with the political and economic system. Furthermore, economic hardships driven by crippling sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic are demotivating citizens to vote. Well aware that a low voter turnout could damage his regime’s credibility at home and abroad, Ayatollah Khamenei has been encouraging citizens to vote saying, “the higher the turnout, the bigger the benefits.”

Ankara in Risky Geopolitical Gamble in Black Sea

Metin Gurcan, Al Monitor
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Ankara’s commitment to the 1936 Montreux Convention, which gives Turkey control of the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, has guided Turkey’s balanced policy in the Black Sea region for decades. The decades-long “geopolitical equilibrium” set by the Montreux Convention came under major strain when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and the military confrontation between Ukraine and Russia began. After talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asserted Turkey’s support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and called for a peaceful solution to the conflict with Russia in eastern Ukraine. 

This move is a rare alignment with the US and NATO which have also pledged their support to Ukraine and are getting ready for massive military drills in the region as part of the Europe Defender-2021 exercises.Three main factors that appear to be motivating Turkey to become more relaxed in terms of the Montreux convention and shake up the geopolitical balance of the Black Sea. First, President Erdogan sees an opportunity to consolidate his conservative-nationalist base by expressing its “hallmark policy of polarization”. Second, to market the country’s development plan for Canal Istanbul, a new man-made waterway, Ankara needs to challenge the existing straits regime to provide “a political cover to what many experts see as an economically unviable venture.” Finally, Turkey sees the Montreux Convention as a possible bargaining chip in the relationship it seeks with the Biden administration as the US desires a stronger military presence in the Black Sea region.