There is much anticipation over the US and China’s first high-level meeting scheduled for today. Chinese-American relations have reached new lows over the last year, with tensions escalating even more in the last couple of weeks as a suspected Chinese cyberattack has infiltrated nearly 30,000 American companies, including military contractors. As you will read below, the US-China rivalry is a battle over values. China is a threat to democracy across the globe – as is Russia, and yesterday’s recalling of the Russian Ambassador reflects the rising tensions – which can be seen by recent acts of aggression towards Hong Kong. As for Russia, the oppression of domestic pro-democracy protests, as well as those in Belarus, are indicative examples of an oppressive regime that disregards human rights and basic democratic values. The US response to such threats will be critical not only for strengthening America’s resolve and democratic commitments but also for the support needed in order to preserve, protect, defend, and advance democratic institutions across the globe. 

U.S.-Chinese Rivalry Is a Battle Over Values

Hal Brands and Zack Cooper, Foreign Affairs

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As the Biden administration prepares for its first high-level meeting with Chinese officials this week, the notion of values-driven competition inspired by realistic classical liberalism between the US and the CCP seems to be the lynchpin of President Biden’s stance. Many parallels have been already drawn between today’s conflict and the Cold War, and the ideological schism between East and West fits this pattern; ultimately, most Americans are motivated more by any appearance of a threat to their freedoms than abstract concepts of political justice. This passion for ideology produced deeper alliances than transactional realpolitik alone could have produced, and was a key component to the US’s victory in the Cold War. The moral asymmetry between the US and China frames the conflict not as a great power struggle but as a war between democratic values and authoritarian rule, one which allows the US and its allies to draw an important distinction between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people; the former is the opposition, the latter a group whose aspirations the US should support. While the excesses of ideology are always a danger, the global tendency toward issues-driven cooperation (such as on climate change) may help inoculate against some of the risks. The US cannot afford to lose the moral high ground in the new Cold War.

Freedom in the World 2021: The Global Decline in Democracy has Accelerated

Freedom House

Read the press release here

Read the full “Freedom in the World 2021” report here

Freedom House found that authoritarian rule expanded in 2020 as we enter the 15th consecutive year of declining global freedom. With India status dropping from “Free” to “Partly Free,” less than 20% of the world’s population now live in a “Free” country. This change mirrors a broader shift as authoritarians have generally acted with impunity to consolidate power and crush dissent. Notably, pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and Belarus were brutally repressed, with Beijing and Moscow providing the impetus. Freedoms in longstanding democratic powerhouses saw challenges as well, notably in the United States with the preceding year of domestic unrest and Trump’s final days in office severely damaging the US’s credibility. The pandemic did little to help the slide of global democracy; repressive regimes and populists used the lockdowns to reduce transparency and crack down on speech. Many of the emergency measures taken have effects which long outlast the end of the pandemic; 36 countries suffered declines in their freedoms as a result. Despite all this, hope is not lost for democracy. Malawi withstood an attempt to undermine elections thanks to the resiliency of its judges, and Taiwan successfully suppressed the coronavirus without resorting to abusive methods, in sharp contrast to China. If the world is to move towards a freer tomorrow, the lessons of today must be heeded and acted upon with courage.

Preparing for Retaliation Against Russia, U.S. Confronts Hacking by China

David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes and Nicole Perlroth, The New York Times

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Over the next few weeks, we can expect a major move from the Biden administration in response to the escalating issue of cyberattacks. Just as the President was contemplating a retaliation against Russia for the large-scale hacking of American government agencies and various private corporations, which were discovered just a few months ago, a new cyberattack conducted by China has occurred. At the beginning of March, Microsoft publicly reported a major breach in Microsoft email systems, used by a variety of American companies including military contractors, and identified the hackers as a state-sponsored Chinese group. While the US government has not made any formal declaration of who was responsible for the hacking, the scope of the attack (as many as 30,000 organizations affected) will certainly require the Biden administration to consider retaliation against China. The debate is how to respond. President Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, believes traditional sanctions do not do enough to raise the cost to force powers like Russia or China to discuss rules regulating cyberspace. On the other hand, too strong of a response could risk escalation with two of the country’s primary rivals. Nonetheless, cyberattacks are a national security risk that would be dangerous to overlook.

Mario Draghi and Emmanuel Macron — the EU’s new power couple?

Ben Hall, Financial Times

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Mario Draghi’s appointment as Italian prime minister has been seen as good news for the European Union (EU), especially for French President Emmanual Macron. Some are expecting Draghi and Macron to become “Europe’s new power couple” when Angela Merkel steps down as chancellor. Both men are advocates of a more integrated Europe. Historically speaking, French and Italy have had their share of tensions. During the eurozone debt crisis, France chose to align itself with Germany over fear that the risk spread between French bonds and German Bunds instead of siding with its Mediterranean neighbors. More recently, French-Italian relations slumped to new lows when Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio supported French anti-government protesters. Takeovers of Italian companies by French rivals and France’s lack of solidarity in the migrant crisis of 2015-16 also deteriorated relations. Italy became more pro-European under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government and joined France calling for a “common debt instrument issued by a European institution” to help countries struggling from the pandemic. This has since become part of the “Next Generation EU” recovery fund plan that was organized by France and Germany and is considered not only a huge step forward for European integration but also one of Macron’s biggest European achievements to date. Italy, the biggest beneficiary of the new recovery fund, will be under much scrutiny as they spend the fund’s money. Many believe Draghi can combine national responsibility with European solidarity to spend the money wisely and help overhaul the EU’s fiscal policy, very much aligning with Macron’s hope for further European integration.