The world may be reaching another inflection point in the next few years. Instability (political, economic, social, financial) and upheaval may be reaching alarming levels. Consequently, the global balance of power may be shifting. The act of rebalancing the international order may exacerbate instability before or after the rebalancing is completed, in a manner similar to the developments prior to the Westphalian Treaty (1648), the Vienna Congress (1814), the Paris Treaty (1919), the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944), or the Camp David decisions (1971). In that spirit, we will be offering our readers a bi-weekly summary of 4-5 articles related to the geopolitical unfolding and the implications they may have for our lives.  

The Awkward Timing of Europe’s Deal with China

Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post
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In the last week of December, it was announced that an investment agreement was reached between China and the European Union (EU). The timing of the announcement is rather “awkward” because President-Elect Joe Biden had urged the bloc to wait on finalizing an agreement with China so there could first be consultations between the EU and the new US administration. With just a few weeks until Biden’s inauguration day, the EU is sending a message that a united western front against Beijing’s authoritarian regime is not important to the future of globalization. The driving force behind the China-EU investment agreement on the EU side was German Chancellor Angela Merkel whose 2020 term as President of the European Council has just come to an end. Germany’s robust automobile and industrial sectors stand to benefit substantially from increased market access to Chinese markets.

European leaders say the agreement with China will allow them to promote Europe’s “core values” and influence China on political and economic reforms. However, critics argue Europe is getting too cozy with China at a time when it has clearly shown no inclination to follow the rules. Over the past year China has cracked down on Hong Kong, fought with India, bullied Australia, threatened Taiwan, and doubled down on its oppression of minority groups in the region of Xinjiang, among other aggressive actions. While Europe believes this agreement gives it strategic leverage over China, Beijing has repeatedly shown its willingness to use economic power as a strategic weapon which means this agreement could very well bend Europe more to China rather than the other way around.

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021

Robert Malley, Foreign Policy
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As the world leaves a turbulent 2020 in its rear view mirror, the shadows of conflict are, unfortunately, closer than they appear.  Malley outlines 10 conflicts whose ramifications will continue well into 2021 and beyond: those in Afghanistan, Ethiopia’s Tigray, North Africa’s Sahel, Yemen, Venezuela, Somalia, Libya, Iran, Russia-Turkey, and the issue of climate change.In the Middle East and Northern Africa, longstanding conflicts have exacerbated humanitarian risks.  In Yemen, for instance, a squandered opportunity for peace has increased the probability of widespread famine as the Houthis and the Hadi government vie for control in a fragile food security environment.  Rural communities in the Sahel region have been caught between jihadi insurgents and state militaries.  While Libya is in a cease-fire, tensions remain high between rival factions, and the country remains deeply divided.  In similar straights is Venezuela, which has languished under the coronavirus crisis and “maximum pressure” sanctions.  The US’s actions in Venezuela have done little to create change.  Even as the Trump administration winds down, it looks to continue its strongman approach, tying the hands of the Biden administration with a precarious situation in Iran and a difficult decision on troop withdrawals in Afghanistan.  The next several years are fraught with geopolitical perils which will have important ramifications for foreign policy and global trade structures.

2021 Will Be a Make-or-Break Year for Multilateralism

Joshua Lincoln, World Politics Review
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The United Nations (UN) is gearing up to take a stronger leadership role in the world as the globe reels from the Covid-19 pandemic and as the deadly threat of climate change has pushed itself to the forefront of the global agenda. Both of these global issues have brought a new sense of urgency to international cooperation which the UN intends to take advantage of. Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres, has put forward a “common agenda” for 2021 which prioritizes combining the recovery of the pandemic, responding to the climate emergency, and pushing forward with the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The scope and impact of international cooperation will depend on the multilateral ambition of the US as well as the extent to which permanent Security Council members China and Russia are willing to participate in the UN agenda. 

The success of the UN common agenda will also depend on four important trends to keep an eye on in 2021. First, close cooperation is needed to adequately distribute a Covid-19 vaccine to all parts of the world. The spread of the virus has already exposed drastic social inequalities which will only be exacerbated by an unequal distribution of vaccines. Second, the current economic crisis is far from over. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the recovery will be long and uneven, with the cumulative economic output lost from the pandemic growing with time. Third, it could take the entirety of 2021 or longer for the US administration change to be felt across the world of diplomacy. Finally, the run up to the Glasgow climate change summit in November is looking turbulent and uncertain. Research from the World Resources Institute found that the world needs to increase the adoption of renewables six times faster, phase out coal five times faster, and transition to electric vehicles 22 times faster than current rates to limit global warming to the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. 2021 will be a critical year for multilateralism as the world requires a revitalization of global cooperation. 

How the U.S. Misread China’s Xi: Hoping for a Globalist, It Got an Autocrat

Jeremy Page, Wall Street Journal
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In 2011, Washington was sizing up Hu Jintao’s successor.  Its impression of Xi Jinping as a confident leader who would share his predecessor’s commitment to stable US relations was proven massively incorrect in the following eight years.  Xi has shown himself to be a hypernationalist autocrat with a sweeping vision of Chinese ascendancy and the drive to make it a reality.  He has revived Mao’s place in popular society while inserting his own brand of “Xi Jinping Thought.”  People close to Xi ascribe his political instincts to his father’s suffering in the Mao era, during which Xi lost a half sister to the Cultural Revolution.  That time seems to have left a lasting distrust of peers, a winner-take-all approach, and a penchant for playing cards close to the chest.  A brutal stint working in Liangjiahe taught a young Xi pragmatism and instilled a distaste for “corruption and materialism.”  As a secretary to defense premier Geng Biao, Xi came to see the US both as a useful tool and a serious rival to China.  He would also come to recognize the importance of military support in political endeavors.  After rapidly rising through the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi began to work with Wang Huning to develop what would become Xi Jinping Thought and the China Dream: an enlightened autocracy to guide China into modernity.  Even as backlash over the coronavirus pandemic, Uighur internments, aggressive diplomacy, and crackdowns on Hong Kong has mounted, few see Xi leaving power anytime soon.  In what will undoubtedly be a tense path forward, the topography of China’s international relations is, at least for now, inextricably linked to Xi Jinping.