As we continue our analysis of Russia and the war in Ukraine this week, we dive deeper into some of the fears that have emerged as a result of the conflict, namely a wider war between Russia and the West, and the possibility that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon. Another question that has the world on the edge of its seat is will China come to Russia’s aid? Despite the fears and uncertainty, the conflict has created, there are signs that Russia’s walls are “crumbling” under the pressure of Western sanctions. 

The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West

Robin Wright, The New Yorker
Read the full article here

Fears that the West will be drawn into a war with Russia have grown. The US and its European allies are walking a fine line between supporting Ukraine and provoking Russia. Any move that Putin could interpret as provocative could send the continent, and even the US, into a wider war with Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the press in Moldova, “For everything we’re doing for Ukraine, the President also has a responsibility to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct war, with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe.” On the other hand, it may not take a misstep by the West for Russia’s war to extend beyond Ukraine: Putin may choose this path himself. It is quite likely that Putin invaded Ukraine because he saw a window of opportunity when the West was weak and divided. To add to this, the West has been “tragically lenient” and “outrageously complacent” after several aggressive actions from Russia including, but not limited to, the murder of defector Alexander Litvinenko in 2006, the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia’s part in the destruction of Aleppo in 2016, and the alleged poisoning of Alexey Navalny in 2020. If the West appears at all restrained, Putin may be emboldened to press his military campaign even farther into Europe. Many eastern European countries, several of which were part of the former Soviet Union, have been warning the West of Russia’s potential for aggression for years. Marek Magierowski, Poland’s Ambassador to the U.S., said, “We have never had any doubts whatsoever about Vladimir Putin’s neo-imperial ambitions.” At each of his four visits to NATO countries near Russia, Blinken heard these same warnings and was told the US needs to do more.

Fortress Russia Crumbles

Anders Åslund, Project Syndicate
Read the full article here 

While Vladimir Putin has spent the better part of a decade hardening Russia against sanctions, the severity and speed of the West’s response to his invasion of Ukraine has blasted down the walls of “Fortress Russia.” Russia’s foreign reserves are frozen, its currency has devalued, its stock markets are closed, annual inflation may hit 50%, and its GDP is set to fall by at least 10% this year. These consequences are largely the result of the West’s financial sanctions, such as barring transactions with state-owned banks and restricting access to the SWIFT financial messaging system. Western companies have followed the lead of their governments, with large firms like Apple and McDonalds shuttering business in the country. The risks to companies operating in Russia are unlikely to dissipate soon, dissuading foreign investment in the state. As these effects are felt in the everyday lives of Russian citizens, even the strictest censorship will likely have trouble containing unrest. Even if he succeeds in conquering Ukraine, Putin’s invasion seems set to backfire dramatically.

The Nuclear Question

Why Putin’s nuclear threat could be more than bluster – Anthony Faiola, Washington Post 

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes – Maura Reynolds, Politico 

When most people think of nuclear weapons, they think of the devastating atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II. However, the advent of tactical nuclear weapons – lower-yield nuclear devices designed for the battlefield which have a fraction of the potency of the Hiroshima bomb – has changed the way we should think about a nuclear war scenario. Due to the ability of nuclear weapons to create vast devastation, nuclear deployment has seemed unimaginable, and some would argue they have existed only as a deterrent. On the other hand, tactical nuclear weapons are smaller devices with limited damage, which makes the use of nuclear weapons by an actor like Russia less unthinkable. To give an example, Russia could detonate a one kiloton weapon on one side of Kyiv’s Zhuliany airport, sending shockwaves and deadly radiation, but the blast radius would not reach the end of the runway. It is believed that Russia has 2,000 such weapons. The world would certainly react in horror if Russia used any type of nuclear weapon, but, as Anthony Faiola points out in his article, Putin could potentially use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine without triggering a third world war. Those that think Putin wouldn’t risk even a low-grade nuclear attack argue that Russia has too much to lose. A nuclear move could trigger deeper sanctions from the West, increase opposition at home, and negatively impact Russia’s alliance with China and other nations like India, Brazil, and South Africa that are still “hedging their bets”. On the other hand, others, like Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, warn Putin may deploy a nuclear weapon rather than accept defeat if the war shifts towards a Ukrainian victory. Kroenig also warns that nuclear war may not seem as taboo to Putin as it is to Western governments: “I do think that there’s a big cultural difference here. The Russians often finish their major military exercises with nuclear strikes.” Fiona Hill, former Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the United States National Security Council and author of a Putin biography, said “Every time you think, ‘No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would.” She argues Putin is methodical but that he is increasingly operating emotionally and is likely to use every tool at his disposal. Adding to her point, she says this is not something the West should be intimidated by, but it is important for the West to face the possibility and prepare for its contingencies.

Putin’s War Pushes Xi to Re-evaluate

Putin’s War Is Xi’s Worst Nightmare – Craig Singleton, Foreign Policy

A War-Weakened Russia Has No Strategic Value to China – Howard W. French, World Politics Review

As Russia’s military continues to languish in Ukraine, China has found itself caught between its desire to stand in solidarity with authoritarian power and maintain its prominent standing on the global stage. The Ukrainian people’s fiercer-than-expected resistance, coupled with the international order’s increasingly severe punishment of Russia, has changed the calculus for President Xi. Even if Putin’s invasion is successful, China will need to re-evaluate its grand strategy in Taiwan, as the West’s response to Ukraine seems to have caught China off-guard. Military analysts have stated that China would have difficulty conquering Taiwan in a blitzkrieg manner without a significant buildup of force; such a run-up would permit the West (now with the experience of the Ukrainian crisis guiding its response) to pre-emptively respond to China’s aggression. Combine this with the Chinese military’s lack of experience and the likelihood of a military invasion of Taiwan severely decreases, leading China back to its historical position of retaking Taiwan through “all means short of war.” Even without an engagement on the Taiwanese front, China will have its hands full dealing with the fallout of the Russian invasion. Sino-Russian ties have grown closer in the past few years; as such, China has found itself saddled with a crippled ally as Russia’s economy tanks. If it is to emerge with its soft power undiminished, Xi may need to cut some ties with his northern ally. If he does not, China risks Putin destroying the multi-decade grand strategy of Chinese ascendancy, something Xi cannot afford. Whether Chinese officials can navigate this threat may determine not only China’s trajectory but the very course of 21st-century history.