The balance of world affairs has changed dramatically since the morning of February 24th, when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine. Much of the globe has coalesced against Moscow, with a few actors remaining silent and fewer still voicing outright support. Russia’s global position necessitates such a treatment, for Putin wields its gravity in international affairs to pull others out of their orbits. As such, we have undertaken this week to examine four elements of the Ukrainian situation which we consider hinge points for the day after the crisis: Putin’s motivations, Europe’s response, the economic warfare being waged through sanctions, and China’s position.

Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin

Putin Chooses a Forever War – Tom Nichols, The Atlantic
What Does Putin Really Want? – Politico

Prior to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the question at the forefront of foreign policy was whether he was bluffing by sending thousands of troops to Ukraine’s eastern border – in other words, would Putin start a war? Now that the war has begun, the question has changed to “When will Putin stop his war?” In his ominous speech on February 21st, the Russian president made clear that he did not consider Ukraine a legitimate independent state and railed against the sanctions imposed on Russia from the West. Citing a revisionist history of the Soviet collapse, he paints a schizophrenic picture of Russia – “an inferiority complex that sees Moscow as both a savior of other nations and a victim of great conspiracies.” That insecurity came to a point on February 24th. With instability such a fundamental component of the invasion, it should come as no surprise that there is great uncertainty as to its extent and resolution. Politico interviewed nineteen experts in Russian affairs to get a clearer picture of what Putin may have in mind. Their responses are categorized below.

• Putin is a blatant imperialist whose goal is simply the reassertion of a Russian sphere of influence over former Soviet territory. In his view, anywhere “Russianness” is a significant element of the culture is a place where Russia is entitled to power.
• The vitality of Ukrainian democracy is offensive to Putin’s conception of authoritarianism. As such, his goal may simply be to destabilize Ukraine, though it is unlikely that he will leave Kyiv without a puppet government if he succeeds in his invasion. Donetsk and Luhansk would become “autonomous regions” officially, but Russian territories in reality. This angle is supported by the size of the Russian invasion force, which is insufficient to subjugate the entirety of Ukraine, and his stated goals to “demilitarize” and “denazify” the country.
• The decline of Russian influence on the geopolitical stage has been a constant irritant to Putin. His goal in Ukraine may be to remind Europe (and to a lesser extent the US) that Russia still pulls significant weight in the balance of power.

Under all these frameworks, a swift and decisive victory in Ukraine is essential to Putin’s aims. The continued resistance of the Ukrainian people has thus far thwarted his plans, but given that Putin seems to display a “victory at all costs” mindset, it is unlikely that Ukraine will emerge victorious without significant international help. There remains an avenue for the West to raise the cost of victory for Russia through economic and diplomatic measures, as it has already done. This may shift the calculus of Putin’s invasion and necessitate a retreat if successful but barring the use of hard power it is unclear whether Russia will reach that point. Whatever the outcome, Putin has laughed in the face of post-WWII liberalism and scoffed at its ideals; if the world wants to prevent a return to imperialist great power conflict, it must act decisively to defend the regime of peace.

“There is War in Europe”

War in Europe casts the continent into a frightening unknown – Anthony Faiola, Washington Post
In just 72 hours, Europe overhauled its entire post-Cold War relationship with Russia – Michael Birnbaum, Missy Ryan, and Souad Mekhennet, Washington Post

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine propelled Europe into the frightening unknown. Just a week before the invasion, many European leaders and citizens thought Putin was bluffing and that surely he would not take it so far as to begin a war in Ukraine. Now, there are fears that he is more reckless and unpredictable than many once believed as his core mission is “the preservation and expansion of personal power.” In a matter of days, Europeans were shocked out of their post-Cold War era mentality and forced to completely reassess the bloc’s state of security. Europe “overturned its foreign policy orthodoxies in a heartbeat.” In Germany, newly elected Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared he would dramatically increase defense spending, begin shipping arms to Ukraine, and even said he was open to keeping Germany’s nuclear plants open (Germany has plans to shut down all nuclear plants by the end of 2022) if it reduced reliance on Russian energy. After eight members of the European Union (EU) expressed a willingness to begin membership negotiations with Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky formally sent in his nation’s application. Finland and Sweden are now considering joining the NATO defense alliance and Switzerland shocked the world when it broke its usual stance of neutrality by declaring it would freeze top Russians’ assets. Out of this crisis has also come a strengthening of ties between the US and Europe. While Putin may have invaded Ukraine in part to test the fragile Trans-Atlantic alliance and members’ commitments to NATO, not just the US and Europe, but the world has come together to challenge the evil that Putin is.

The West’s Sanctions on Russia: Will They Be Enough? 

​​How Vladimir Putin Miscalculated the Economic Cost of Invading Ukraine – John Cassidy, The New Yorker 

The New Russian Sanctions Playbook – Edward Fishman and Chris Miller, Foreign Affairs 

Making Putin Pay – David J. Kramer, John Herbst, and William Taylor, Foreign Affairs

Putin may have severely miscalculated the economic cost of invading Ukraine. His assumption that European countries are so dependent on Russian energy imports and that they are so “economically beholden” to Moscow that they would not introduce harmful economic sanctions has so far been proven wrong. He has also miscalculated the power of his $600 billion “war chest” in foreign-exchange reserves which can only be impactful if it can be used. In coordination, Europe and the US have launched a series of crippling economic sanctions which specifically target Putin, his oligarchs, and Russia’s financial institutions, including the Central Bank of Russia. It is evident that they are working. Since the invasion took place, Russia’s currency has lost more than 30% of its value, the Russian Central Bank frantically raised interest rates from 9.5% to 20% in an effort to stem the decline, and Russian companies traded abroad have lost more than 98% of their values! Not only have Russian markets lost tens of billions of dollars in value, but also Russian banks and businesses are being cut off from hardly any participation in the global economy.

It seems that Russia now is being treated as a pariah state and soon may be a failed state. The sanctions, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it, will “cripple Putin’s ability to finance his war machine.” These financial penalties will undoubtedly slow Russia’s economic growth. While there will be some costs for Western economies as well, the costs to Russia will be far greater. Sanctions also have the ability to limit Putin’s domestic power as living standards deteriorate and public discontent escalates. If Putin must focus more effort and energy at controlling domestic politics, he will have fewer resources to further his aggression abroad. Finally, sanctions can also limit Russia’s ability to produce and develop advanced military equipment. 

However, will sanctions be enough to deter the madman? David J. Kramer, John Herbst, and William Taylor in their article “Making Putin Pay,” argue the West needs to go beyond economic and financial sanctions to truly contain Moscow. They argue that in addition to stepping up sanctions, the US and its European allies need to take drastic steps to cut off Putin’s propaganda machine and stage cyberattacks against the Russian military. Furthermore, the US should reassure its European allies by increasing energy exports to the continent and sending more troops into Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states. “If Putin isn’t seriously punished, he won’t stop at Kyiv.”

The China Problem: Ukraine Edition

China Has More to Lose Than to Gain by Supporting Russia on Ukraine – Anonymous, World Politics Review 

China’s Ukraine Crisis – Jude Blanchette and Bonny Lin, Foreign Affairs

The Ukrainian crisis has forced China to walk a thin line on its strategic partnership with Russia, risking the fury of either Russia or the West if it steps too far out in either direction. While Beijing acknowledges Russia’s desire for “secure borders,” it also stated prior to the invasion that “all countries’ sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity must be safeguarded.” Following economic sanctions on Russia from the West, China has neither joined in sanctioning Russia nor offered relief to its neighbor. Ties between the two nations had been growing stronger in the lead-up to Putin’s invasion, with one intelligence report even stating that Chinese officials had asked Russia to delay its invasion until after the Olympics, a claim China disputes. The similarities between Russia’s goals in Ukraine and China’s view of Taiwan may engender a kind of “strategic ambiguity” from Beijing as it observes the world’s response to determine what its course should be in the South China Sea. Decisive action on the Russian side in Ukraine or an incursion into Taiwan would likely split the global order into two pieces, with the US and Europe on one side and China and Russia on the other. This situation would make it much more difficult for China to achieve its goals given its economic ties to the West and Russia’s weaker position. But by not acting, China may jeopardize its relationships with Moscow at a time when global sentiment is souring against the authoritarian axis. As the world continues to watch the situation in Ukraine unfold, few will be watching more closely than China; the West would do well to note this.