Destabilizing forces by definition have complicated interactions and unforeseeable consequences. For this week’s geopolitical look, we examine several destabilizing currents in the world today: the US-China rivalry, water insecurity, and unrest in Turkey, Sudan, Tunisia, and Ethiopia. As these events unfold and interconnect in their myriad effects, leaders and citizens alike attempt to navigate the complex landscape of change towards a better future, with mixed results.

The Shape of Conflict: China and the US

The Inevitable Rivalry

John J. Mearsheimer, Foreign Affairs

The U.S. and China Face Off in the Far East

Georg Fahrion, Katharina Graça Peters, Alexander Sarovic, and Bernhard Zand; Spiegel International

When the United States emerged victorious from the Cold War in the early 1990s, it scarcely considered the impoverished nation of China a potential great power rival. The US, emboldened by liberalism’s apparent victory over authoritarianism and its foremost position in the newly minted “unipolar” international order, sought to engage China in order to woo it to democracy and the US-led global coalition. China leveraged its massive population and abundant natural resources to supercharge its economy, catapulting it from the world’s thirteenth largest economy by GDP to second within just thirty years. China quickly turned that economic power into military power – 60% of global defense spending growth came from China. As China sought to be the biggest player in its backyard, it came into conflict with other regional powers (namely India and Japan) and ultimately the US, which sees China’s influence in any region as a threat to its international order. With no adjudicating bodies to govern competition, and a rapid increase in military buildup concerning to both sides, the potential for armed conflict has multiplied dramatically. As tensions rise in Taiwan and the South China Sea, key alliances have formed among Pacific stakeholders, such as the Five Eyes (an intelligence alliance between the US, the UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand), the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (between the US, India, Japan, and Australia), and AUKUS (a security pact between the US, the UK, and Australia). The US’s increased presence in the region has inflamed China’s nationalist sentiments, and it has stepped up both its rhetoric (as seen in the infamous “wolf warrior” diplomacy) and its actions (as demonstrated in its attempts to intimidate Taiwan through aerial excursions into the island’s air defense identification zone). While even limited war remains unlikely at the present time, a deep sense of tension permeates Sino-American relations as both sides struggle for supremacy in the world order.

The Threat of Conflict Over Water is Growing

Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

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Nearly two-thirds of the world’s population live in water-stressed conditions. The effects of climate change and destabilizing political forces (such as Nigeria’s Boko Haram militants) have placed a premium on freshwater access, with tensions bubbling to the surface as water resources become scarcer. The situation is deteriorating rapidly in many areas of the globe, leading many analysts to think that armed conflict for control of freshwater supplies just around the corner. Hydro-infrastructure has already become a point of contention – in Egypt, for example, mistrust of Ethiopia’s assurances about access to water following the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has led some to advocate bombing the dam. India and China face a similar conflict over the region’s major rivers, many of which originate in Tibet. At the same time, rising sea levels pose a serious threat to habitability in the world’s low-lying flood plains, with large tracts of land likely to be rendered uninhabitable by periodic flooding. Rising sea levels also flood critical farmland with crop-destroying seawater, compounding food insecurity. Such events would likely trigger mass migrations to more habitable zones, destabilizing whole populations and creating a simultaneous security and humanitarian crisis on an unimaginable scale.

Will the Ailing Turkish Economy Bring Erdogan Down?

Laura Pitel, Financial Times

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Despite the fact that the Turkish economy is expected to grow 9% in 2021, an even higher rate than China, a large portion of the population cannot meet their basic needs and the poverty rate is on the rise. Turkey’s economic growth has not translated into new jobs or wage growth, meanwhile, inflation is soaring and the currency is losing its value. Because of this, Turkey’s opposition party is convinced the failing economy is going to bring down Erdogan’s 19-year rule. The support for Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has fallen to historic lows of between 30-33% and the main reason is the economy. Just a couple of weeks ago, Turkey’s central bank cut interest rates amid rising inflation, shocking the markets and resulting in a plunge in the Lira. Over the years, Erdogan has consolidated his power on state institutions, including the central bank. He has repeatedly demanded rate cuts, which he believes will combat inflation (contrary to economic orthodoxy), and has demonstrated a cycle of replacing central bank officials when they make a decision that upsets him. This most recent interest rate cut could be even more dangerous due to rising energy prices and the global shift towards rate hikes that could divert capital from Turkey, creating a high-inflation situation with low growth. Days after the central bank slashed interest rates, Erdogan nearly triggered a diplomatic crisis when he threatened to expel ten western democrats. As one former AKP minister put it, “Domestic policy, foreign policy, the economy, it’s all going from bad to worse.” While opposition parties are optimistic that Erdogan’s time may be coming to an end, autocrats do not just step down.

Behind Power Grabs in Sudan and Tunisia, the Shadow of Gulf Monarchies

Ishaan Tharoor, The Washington Post

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Coups are making a comeback. This year alone, there have been more successful regime oustings than in the last five years combined. Tunisia and Sudan have made news headlines for their recent power grabs, and behind them are three regional powers – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In a “slow-motion coup” that has been ongoing since July, Tunisian President Kais Saied fired the prime minister, dissolved parliament, and granted himself judicial powers amid widespread unrest and disapproval. In Sudan last week, the military launched a coup, detained Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and his cabinet, dissolved parliament, and declared a state of emergency. Both Tunisian President Saied and Sudanese coup leader Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan framed their actions as necessary progress for stability. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have cheered on the power grabs in Tunisia and Sudan. Reports suggest Saied is in talks with the Emiratis and Saudis for a bailout if his transitional government fails to secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund needed to cover a major budget deficit. Meanwhile, the two Gulf monarchies have tight links with the Sudanese military, having supported it financially after Omar Al-Bashir’s fall in 2019. In a policy memo, the International Crisis Group called on the US and EU to use the leverage they have with the Gulf monarchies and Egypt to convince the military leaders in Sudan to exercise restraint and come to a peaceful solution. Restoring democratic prospects for both Tunisia and Sudan may require pressure on Arab powers.

Ethiopia Declares State of Emergency as Rebels Advance Toward Capital

Declan Walsh and Simon Marks, The New York Times

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The Ethiopian government declared a six-month state of emergency on Tuesday as rebel forces continue pushing closer to Ethiopia’s capital city, Addis Abba. It has been one year since opposition forces from the Tigray region, named the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began fighting the Ethiopian government. In the last few days, the Tigrayan militia has joined forces with another rebel group, heightening fears of a wider civil war. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has called on the country’s citizens to pick up arms and prepare to defend the capital. Under the state of emergency, the prime minister has the authority to arrest and detain critics, impose a curfew, and restrict the news media. While some citizens are ready to take up arms and fight for their country, others have lost faith in the Ethiopian government as they had previously been told that the TPLF had been defeated. Furthermore, Ethiopian government forces have been accused of human rights atrocities, as have all other sides of the conflict, drawing international condemnation. The US has threatened to impose sanctions on Ethiopia unless it moves towards peace talks and, on Tuesday, President Biden revoked trade privileges for the country, including duty-free access to the US because of “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.” Furthermore, the government’s blockade of Tigray has prevented most supplies of food and medicine from reaching 5.2 million people. The United Nations and other humanitarian groups are warning of a large- scale famine. The conflict has spread fear across the region as the fighting could spill into neighboring countries and create a refugee crisis.