The Biden administration is keen on revitalizing American foreign policy and restoring the country’s global leadership position. To do so, the US will have to invest time, money, and political capital in areas of the world that aren’t always making headlines. Strategic partnerships and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Black Sea region are essential ways the US and its allies can promote democratic freedoms in the face of authoritarian provocation. Also seeking to reinvent itself and reaffirm its leadership role, Germany will be electing a new chancellor in the coming days. Meanwhile, China’s leader Xi Jinping is doubling down in his race to consolidate power, cementing his role as the central figure of China’s ascendancy.

Germany’s Post-Merkel Future

How a Scholz-Led Government Could Transform Germany and Europe

Iain Rogers, Bloomberg

Beyond Merkelism: What Europeans expect of post-election Germany

Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin, European Council on Foreign Relations

Social Democrat Olaf Scholz is leading in the polls to become Germany’s next chancellor, but the road to forming a government (if he is elected) will not be easy; Scholz will need a three-party coalition to secure a Bundestag majority. The Green Party is the likely second party in the coalition, but the third spot seems to be up for grabs between the centrist Free Democrats (FDP) and the Left party. The final makeup of the alliance, which may take months to form, will obviously have major implications for Germany’s post-Merkel future. Below is a summary of each party’s stance on Germany’s primary issues:

Budget: The SPD, Green Party, and Left party are not as fiscally conservative as the FDP which wants to cut debt to 60% of GDP as soon as possible.

Taxes: While the SPD, Greens, and Left want to increase the tax burden on the wealthy, they all prefer different strategies. The FDP, on the other hand, wants to cut taxes for companies and high earners.

Banking: The SPD and Greens seek regulatory reform and want to preserve competition in the banking sector. The FDP also wants to promote a strong European banking market, but the Left party blames banks for many national issues.

Climate: All four parties support robust climate action, with the Greens wanting to push forward the strictest policies. However, strategies differ greatly among the parties. The FDP’s climate strategy centers on promoting new technologies and expanding emissions trading. The Left wants to protect ordinary citizens from taking on the costs of climate action and believes polluting companies should pay instead.

Europe: German austerity seems to be a thing of the past. The SPD supports a common European Union (EU) investment policy financed by joint debt. The Greens and FDP both back a European Monetary Fund (but the FDP has stipulations), while the Left also rejects a return to stricter budget discipline.

Housing: The SPD, Green party, and Left party support caps on rent, but the FDP does not support any form of nationwide rent control. To combat the housing shortage, the FDP would prefer to build more.

Minimum Wage: Raising the minimum wage to 12 euros seems to be a non-negotiable for Scholz and the social democrats. The Greens agree, the Lefts want an increase to 13 euros, and the FDP opposes.

Regardless of who the next chancellor is or what the makeup of the government will be, Germany is entering a new era. While Chancellor Angela Merkel successfully promoted a unified Europe and built up a Germany that has the trust and support of most EU citizens, Germany, and the bloc face new challenges. To continue its status as a leader in Europe, Germany can no longer remain neutral as autocrats threaten the rule of law in the region and as the bloc has become marginalized geopolitically. The new chancellor will not be able to skid by with “more of the same” – Berlin will need to re-invent itself.

Xi’s Gamble: The Race to Consolidate Power and Stave Off Disaster

Jude Blanchette, Foreign Affairs

Read the full article here

The actions of the Chinese Communist Party in recent years have left little doubt that Xi Jinping is driven by a deep and far-reaching sense of purpose.  While the exact nature of that purpose is fully known only to Xi himself, several elements are nonetheless clear: Xi sees China as being at the convergence of demographic, technological, economic, and geopolitical forces, with a limited timeframe to capitalize on the tailwinds and address the headwinds.  The urgency of the CCP’s actions may be a reflection of its leader’s limited timeframe to implement his vision (Xi turned 68 in June).  The intensity of the reforms has instilled a sense of focus and determination on a traditionally sleepy political system, but given Xi’s appetite for risk, there is much uncertainty as to whether China will be able to execute on his vision.  The foremost risk is the concentration of both power and ideology in Xi himself: as he has consolidated power to the CCP and left no true opponents or successors in its ranks, Xi has cemented his role as the pivotal figure of China’s ascendancy, a fragile position easily upset by his death, illness, or even poor judgment.  The Party’s perennial paranoia has combined internal and external security into one amorphous mass that has produced the dystopian prison state in Xinjiang, the shadowy security apparatus in Hong Kong, and the “wolf warrior” diplomatic stance.  This heightened focus on security has led some to conclude that China may move on Taiwan by 2027.  The condensed timetable of these and other initiatives has put China into unwitting competition with itself, in a race between the strengths of the Chinese system and Xi’s pathologies.  In a scene reminiscent of the great tragedies, the very system meant to build up the Chinese people may ultimately tear them down.

Russia’s Battle for the Black Sea: Why Moscow’s Moves Could Determine the Future of Navigation

Angela Stent, Foreign Affairs

Read the full article here

While China’s antics in the South China Sea have drawn the brunt of the West’s attention, Russia has quietly been expanding its claim in the Black Sea.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized the centrality of naval superiority in the Black Sea to Russia’s national security.  He backed this rhetoric in a dramatic fashion when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 after a pro-Western government came to power in Ukraine.  With Sevastopol back in Russian hands, Putin began ramping up the Kremlin’s naval capabilities, modernizing and expanding its military presence in the Black Sea.  Other Black Sea countries have been unsettled by this aggressive behavior; Georgia, Romania, Ukraine, and Bulgaria have all expressed concern over Russia’s expansionism and sought closer ties with NATO to improve their maritime defenses.  On the other hand, Turkey and Russia’s historically adversarial relationship has cooled as Putin has supported Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  While the countries are by no means allies, Turkey’s control over the critical Turkish Straits grants it leverage over Moscow, as the Montreaux Convention allows Ankara to determine what naval activity is permitted in the Black Sea’s only access point.  This has pushed the United States to pursue closer ties with Turkey and greater freedom of access to the Black Sea, though Erdogan has been hesitant to jeopardize his relationship with Putin, however tenuous it may be.  As naval territory becomes increasingly contentious in a period of declining globalization, the US and NATO’s cooperation with Black Sea states will be a critical aspect of preserving freedom of movement and global security.

Joe Biden has a chance to reshape America’s relationship with Africa

Uzodinma Iweala, Financial Times

Read the full article here

As US President Joe Biden goes about his mission to support democracy around the world and restore confidence in the US, there are great opportunities to solidify relationships with African countries. Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular, has long been an overlooked region despite the rich resource, trade, and investment opportunities. The author of this article, who is also the CEO of The Africa Center, believes Biden would do well to travel to countries like Ghana, South Africa, The Gambia, Nigeria, and even the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Solidifying relationships with these countries and others would allow the Biden administration to reshape America’s relationship with the continent and mend its tarnished image as a global leader. Ghana, which has fostered a modern relationship with the African diaspora as domestic racial tensions have heightened in the US, could be a key partner in supporting diaspora-led trade and investment – a key pillar of the US’ Prosper Africa initiative. Supporting The Gambia in its second free and fair national elections could send a clear message against authoritarianism in the region. Biden may find a partner in South African President Cyril Ramaphosa who is also trying to restore faith in government after a strongman previously sought to manipulate state institutions for personal gain. Nigeria and the US could mutually benefit from a climate-forward trade deal that boosts renewable energy production. Though a very complicated country, the DRC has significant potential for addressing climate change as it has the world’s largest coltan reserves, significant cobalt, and lithium deposits, and is home to the Congo River basin rainforest which is the world’s second-largest carbon sink. Pursuing strategic partnerships with the Congolese people and supporting locally-led democratic reforms could aid the country’s development towards a fairer society while at the same time challenging China’s economic dominance in the region. New partnerships with African countries could be just what the US needs to re-establish its global leadership position.