Geopolitical Challenges and Statecraft
Geopolitical Challenges and Statecraft
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Author : Rachel Poole
Date : August 19, 2021
The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban this week has prompted a flurry of news and analysis of not just Afghanistan’s instability but also of the fragility of democracy in the Middle East. The US foreign policy approach to the Middle East has been criticized following the events in Afghanistan, but the Biden administration maintains that the withdrawal from the country (and the region) will allow the US to prioritize other foreign policy challenges, including China’s rise and the growing Chinese-Russian alliance, both of which are topics we discuss in our summaries this week.
The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order
Rush Doshi, Brookings
As China ramps up its efforts to exert influence over the world’s affairs, the US and the global West have become increasingly concerned about China’s decades-long military, political, and economic effort to displace the US as the foremost global hegemon. While some have dismissed the CCP’s maneuvering as inept and lacking vision, Rush Doshi argues in his book “The Long Game” that the recent consolidation of power is the latest step in a Chinese grand strategy dating back to the Cold War. China’s plan, he argues, consists of three “strategies of displacement” – reduce American regional power over China and Asia, build a Chinese order in that region, and expand globally. These three are intended to blunt each prong of America’s trident of power by decreasing the US’s capacity to coerce through force, incentivize through boons, and influence through position. While Doshi argues that this has been China’s strategy since the fall of the Soviet Union, its focus up to now has been on the first two prongs, leading some to assert that China’s aims are more regional in scope. Following Britain’s exit from the European Union and Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States, Xi saw an opportunity for China to step into the third, expansionist phase of its grand strategy, leveraging the global West’s internal crisis to further its position. This movement has not gone unnoticed, with the US’s stance towards China hardening considerably in recent years. Doshi notes that the sun has not yet set on the West, though tit-for-tat global initiatives are unlikely to derail China’s ambitions. Rather, he advocates for an asymmetric, competitive approach focusing on the West’s inherent strengths and implementing the same trifold blunting approach to regional power.
The discontents of Middle East democracy
Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
The Arab Spring movement a decade ago brought the fall of despots and the desire for democratic leaders to take their place. Today, the future for democracy is grim in the Middle East as autocrats woo citizens with the promise of stability. Tunisia, the place where the Arab Spring uprisings began, has been considered by many to be the last-standing democracy in the Middle East. The survival of democracy in Tunisia has kept the Arab uprisings’ spark of hope alive, but President Kais Saied’s recent firing of the prime minister and suspension of parliament has signaled a move in a more autocratic direction. Lebanon and Iraq, which are still formally-speaking democracies, are very close to becoming failed states. Both governments have failed to promote stability and ensure basic needs for all of their citizens. Arab autocrats in the past were able to garner support and provide a facade of “stability” by subsidizing food and services and providing government jobs. At the end of the day, democracy ranks lower than food, shelter, and security, so if democratically elected governments fail to provide these basic needs, there is a greater temptation to embrace a strongman who promises stability. The US continues to push a “democracy versus autocracy” foreign policy strategy. While political freedom matters and should not be abandoned, this approach has fallen short because it has not adequately balanced freedom and rule of law with empathy for the everyday struggles of ordinary people who are citizens of failed states.
Ebrahim Raisi Takes Office, as Iran and the West Face Off
The Economist
The stance of Iran’s new president, Ebrahim Raisi, is a notable departure from his predecessors; whereas Hassan Rouhani was a pragmatist, Raisi’s more hardline approach aligns with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s worldview. Tensions with Israel have nearly reached a boiling point, with the two countries engaged in a shadow war of infrastructure attacks. With the Biden administration looking to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran’s resistance further complicates a return to the deal. Mr. Raisi has indicated that he will continue to oppose US sanctions, and Iran has been reluctant to observe the nuclear activity controls outlined in the JCPOA. With the prospects of outright conflict with Israel growing, the need for a comprehensive strategy dealing with Iran is becoming more and more urgent.
The Right Way to Split China and Russia
Charles A. Kupchan, Foreign Affairs
The relationship between China and Russia has strengthened over the last two decades, unified by the mutual goal of resisting the encroachment of the West’s geopolitical and ideological ambitions. The author of this article, Charles A. Kupchan, calls this relationship a “marriage of convenience” which is grounded in a realist view of the world where both Russia and China reap mutual and individual benefits from the alliance. However, it is an unequal partnership that favors China and one that has long-standing territorial disputes. China’s economy is about ten times as large as Russia’s and China makes up more than 15 percent of Russia’s foreign trade whereas Russia represents only one percent of China’s foreign trade, giving China significant economic leverage. Furthermore, China has significantly built up its influence in Russia’s backyard, Central Asia, through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and has development ambitions for the Arctic region that may challenge Russia’s Arctic strategy. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, this imbalance could threaten his political power which rests in his promise to restore Russia to great-power status. As Kupchan puts it, “The power gap is particularly hard for the Kremlin to swallow; looking like Xi’s sidekick does not play well at home for Putin.”
The disparity in the China-Russia relationship gives the US an opportunity to persuade Moscow to drift away from Beijing. Kupchan offers several recommendations for how the US can “help Russia help itself.” First, Washington should move away from its ideological, “democracy versus autocracy” approach and, instead, center the conversation with Moscow around overlapping long-term national interests, finding common ground on a range of issues including China. Second, the Biden administration should encourage its democratic allies, such as India, to find areas of mutual interest with Russia and highlight that China’s growing influence is coming at the expense of Russia’s influence and security. Third, the US and its allies should stray away from introducing new sanctions on Russia and should clarify steps Russia can take so that existing sanctions can be scaled back. This would be a step towards reducing Russia’s growing economic dependence on China and encouraging deeper trade links with Europe instead. Assisting Russia with climate change and its transition to a greener, more diversified economy that is not as dependent on fossil fuels could also aid in moving Russia away from China. Kupchan also recommends the US build on the strategic stability conversation Biden and Putin began in June to find a solution to their “missile race” and collaborate to develop a set of rules for economic and military activity in the Arctic. Finally, the US should make the case to Russia that it is China, not the US, that is regularly undercutting Russian influence in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Mistrust and mysterious surrenders: how Kabul fell to the Taliban
Amy Kazmin and Katrina Manson, Financial Times
Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, fell quickly and suddenly to the Taliban, shocking the world and prompting many Afghans to flee for their lives. As new information on the situation is being reported every day, mysterious events and miscalculations made by the US and Afghan governments have surfaced. One such event was the mistrustful departure of US troops from Bagram Airfield on July 1st. US commanders decided not to disclose the precise time of their departure to their Afghan counterparts for “operational security reasons”. By the time Afghan commanders discovered the US troops had left Bagram, the airfield had already been looted. The event affirmed the Afghan forces’ feeling of abandonment which has, arguably, been growing within the Afghan government since February of 2020 when the Trump administration signed a “peace deal” with the Taliban which entailed withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan. In June, the Taliban reportedly controlled only a fifth of Afghanistan’s 420 rural districts. By late July, the group had taken over half of these districts and set their sights on the country’s cities, all of which were controlled by the government. In the weeks that have followed, most of Afghanistan’s US-equipped and trained army have surrendered with little resistance, allowing the Taliban to take Kabul.
It was only last Thursday, as the 12th of 24 provincial capitals fell, that US President Joe Biden gave the order to implement an embassy evacuation plan. However, that evacuation plan was underpinned by the assumption that Kabul would not be subjected to any Taliban threat. The US, and other countries, are now scrambling to evacuate citizens and embassy staff. US commander General Frank McKenzie met with Taliban leaders in Doha on Sunday morning to agree to a deconfliction arrangement so that the US evacuation effort would not be hindered by the Taliban. In exchange, the Taliban would be able to walk into the presidential palace. After President Ghani fled the country, the Taliban did just that and were even given a tour of the palace by security personnel. On Monday morning, chaos erupted at Kabul’s airport as mobs of Afghans tried to push their way onto planes to escape the country. As the situation continues to unfold, rumors are swirling that Afghanistan’s military was given instructions not to fight. Ajmal Ahmady, governor of the central bank, tweeted on Monday, “Seems difficult to believe but there remains suspicion about why the [Afghan National Security Forces] left their posts so quickly. There is something unexplained.”
