The articles we have featured this week touch on several unique topics which have not received much attention in the media as Covid-19 continues to dominate headlines. Water crises in Iran and the Nile River region have stirred up political tensions which threaten to destabilize already politically volatile areas. We also discuss historic political tensions between the European Union and the United Kingdom that have been surfaced by the pandemic, as well as the proliferation of “zombie democracies”. 

Whither the European Project?

Daniel Johnson, Law & Liberty

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For all of its rhetoric on unity and collaboration, the European Union is as much a victim of the era of disillusionment as its trans-Atlantic sister. The EU’s bungling of the pandemic response drove a wedge into an already fracturing public trust, deepening the systematic cynicism many Europeans feel at the lumbering bureaucratic state.  The idiosyncratic challenges each EU member state faces only deepen the disunity. For instance, Mediterranean member states were pushed to exclude tourists from the UK in order to accommodate the slower vaccination rates of the EU’s more northern nations. Indeed, if there has been any point of unity, it has been a distaste for the UK as a rogue former member. Britain’s success in vaccination has done little to assuage the situation. The so-called “sausage war” – a shortage of processed meats in Northern Ireland due to the EU’s trade border in the Irish Sea cutting off Ireland from the UK – exemplifies the bad blood between the Brexiteers and the Commission. These disputes were in the past resolved by a neutral arbiter, such as the Clinton administration in 1998. With so much distrust on every side, even with the current US administration’s departure from its predecessor’s huffishness and embrace of international institutions, it seems unlikely that there will be an honest broker for the disagreement.  In every case, the tensions at play have deep historical roots brought to the surface by the pandemic; should the EU’s member states fail to reform their institutions in light of these conflicts, they may find their experiment in European unanimity a short one.

Protests in Iran Point to the Middle East’s ‘Water Bankrupt’ Future

Candace Rondeaux, World Politics Review

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Widespread drought and water shortages in the Middle East have gained increased attention following Iran’s live-fire suppression of protests over water shortages in Khuzestan.  The confrontation illustrates how Middle Eastern governments are struggling to address the present-day challenges caused by long-term water mismanagement and accelerating climate change. Given the region’s history of violent uprising in times of drought and famine, it is clear that climatological events have real political consequences for those who fail to mitigate them. Even Iran’s Supreme Leader, typically unswayed by public opinion, has issued a statement of sympathy to the demands of the protesters. But in a region whose food and water security are so closely intertwined in a perilous balance, solidarity is not enough. If the Middle East is to address its looming water bankruptcy, it must take action now, beginning with a comprehensive research initiative to measure the quantitative data needed for climate policy. Such a shift has a significant cost in the short term, and cash-strapped or ideologically resistant governments may be slow to act. But if these problems are not addressed, and soon, they will quickly mutate into a human crisis on a massive scale.

Water dispute on the Nile River could destabilize the region

Gary Polakovic, USC News

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New research from the University of South Carolina (USC) shows the filling of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam at the headwaters of the Nile River could reduce water supplies downstream by more than one-third. The implications of this water supply reduction could be devastating for Egypt, reducing its arable land by up to 72%. The economic losses resulting from such a scenario could be up to $51 billion, pushing unemployment up to 24% and displacing many people. This dam has been the crux of decadelong tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The dam project will allow Ethiopia to promote energy security and agriculture development in the country and the region, but Egypt and Sudan are concerned with the consequences of the water diversion and are defending their water rights to the Nile. Talks between the countries to reach an international solution have stalled. Negotiators are now trying to prevent armed conflict from breaking out over the crisis. However, researchers at USC say a win-win situation could still be found, but an agreement will likely require better data and forecasts on the impact the dam could have on human society and the environment.

The Age of Zombie Democracies

Kenneth Roth, Foreign Affairs

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Autocrats have become experts in “managed” democracy, holding periodic “democratic” elections while manipulating the media and state institutions to ensure they remain in power. However, citizens are starting to catch on, bringing about protest movements across the world. To tighten their grip on power, autocrats have been driven towards starker forms of repression, leading to the proliferation of “zombie democracies” – “the living dead of electoral political systems, recognizable in form but devoid of substance.” Examples of zombie democracies are cropping up in a growing number of countries, in nearly every major region of the world. Russia is a prime example of such as President Vladimir Putin’s actions towards opposition leader Alexei Navalny suggest. While Putin long kept the opposition in check through his manipulation and control of the media, he has gone extra lengths, banishing Navalny and labeling the country’s remaining media outlets as “foreign agents”, to squash Navalny and prevent other opposition parties from running in elections. Venezuela and Nicaragua are examples of zombie democracies in Latin America as both have coerced electoral and judicial authorities, detained opposition leaders, and brutally cracked down on protest movements. In Asia, Hong Kong, which had once enjoyed some political freedom through elections, has begun to take on the characteristics of a zombie democracy as nearly all opposition activity was shut down by a national security law imposed by Beijing. These are just a few of several examples included in the article. 

World leaders and human rights activists must adapt to this transition from managed to zombie democracies. To do this, the author argues that governments committed to promoting genuine democracy need a new strategy. The traditional response to managed democracies has been to call them out on electoral manipulation and defend the rights of opposition candidates so as to encourage free and fair elections. While the US and like-minded democracies should continue to do this, the author believes they should also stop providing sustenance (military aid, arms sales, etc.) to these leaders of zombie democracies. In addition, the ways in which the leaders of zombie democracies manipulate the public and advance their interests at the public’s expense, should be exposed – “Even the most committed dictators have a hard time hanging on when the public has completely turned on them.”