The articles we have selected this week cover a range of foreign policy issues at the top of the Biden administration’s agenda including climate change, Chinese aggression, and stability in the Middle East. More specifically, we explore China’s new military ambitions, the “indispensable” role Japan plays in promoting economic stability, schisms between the US and EU on climate issues, and Iran’s threat to stability in the Middle East.

Beijing Eyes New Military Bases Across the Indo-Pacific

Craig Singleton, Foreign Policy

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China Officials Share Viral Video Calling for Atomic Bombing of Japan

John Feng, Newsweek

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While China remains embroiled in a trade war with the US and has been picking fights with regional partners (like Australia) to demonstrate its economic might, China is also seeking to expand its military influence. Beijing has set its sights on new military bases across the Indo-Pacific so that it can project its power beyond the Taiwan Strait. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is working to secure bases in several countries including Cambodia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kiribati, the Pacific Island nation that is just 1,800 miles away from sensitive US military installments in Hawaii. Satellite imagery has revealed rapid construction at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Baseon the Gulf of Thailand and the country’s lack of transparency on the activity has raised suspicions that the upgrades at the base are part of a Chinese military buildup. Over the last few years, China has developed closer ties with the UAE, inking a $300 million deal to upgrade the COSCO Shipping Ports Abu Dhabi terminal which, interestingly, is located near Al Dhafra Air Base and Jebel Ali port which are home to critical US military activities. In addition, the UAE has purchased hundreds of thousands of Covid-19 vaccine doses from China and has elected Huawei as its 5G partner. In Kiribati, Beijing is trying to win over the government using diplomacy and strategically timed investments. Reportedly, Beijing has reached a deal with the Kiribati government to refurbish and expand an airstrip which could potentially open the door for aircraft carrier capabilities. All of these moves are prime examples of China’s grand strategy which centers on influencing host governments to further its political, economic, and military objectives.

Washington has been watching these Chinese military efforts closely, but of more recent concern is Beijing’s extremely harsh language towards Japan. Various social media accounts run by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials posted a video that calls for the “continuous” atomic bombing of Japan should the country interfere in a Chinese invasion of democratic Taiwan. Japan’s Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi and his deputy, Yasuhide Nakayama, have recently spoken out in support of Taiwan amid China’s increasingly aggressive words and actions towards the island nation. This response from the CCP which threatens nuclear action as well as suggests China would seize the Japan-controlled Senkaku and Ryukyu islands prompts concerns of just how far China is willing to go.

Japan is Indispensable Again

Akira Igata and Brad Glosserman, Foreign Affairs

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US President Joe Biden has been keen on strengthening relations with Japan as it is the “linchpin of US security policy in Asia.” US and Japanese officials have met multiple times over the last several months, renewing military and economic agreements and creating new initiatives to counter rising Chinese influence in the Pacific region. Meetings between President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide have focused on ways the two countries could collaborate with particular emphasis on economic security. Over the last several years, Japan has enhanced its economic intelligence, tightened trade restrictions, and promoted emerging technologies to become a force for economic security in Asia. Beginning under former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s administration, the government underwent substantial bureaucratic reorganization and launched new policies to sharpen its economic statecraft tools and more closely align its economic security policies with Washington. However, there is still much more the US and Japan can do to counter the economic security challenges posed by China. The authors of this article recommend the US and Japan create a designated consultative committee for economic security issues similar to Asia’s annual defense summit, expand support for the Blue Dot Network, and together pursue economic security cooperation with other democratic countries.

Europe’s Climate Plans Could Provoke Friction with U.S.

Ishaan Tharoor, The Washington Post

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While many in Brussels prefer the internationalist approach of the Biden administration to the nationalist stance of the Trump years, schisms between Europe and the US persist on the climate issue. For instance, the European Commission announced last Wednesday a set of ambitious climate measures aiming to make the bloc carbon-neutral by 2050. One proposal, the creation of so-called “climate borders,” would effectively impose a tariff on nations with climate policies weaker than the EU. Such a move would likely target the US, which has been much slower to implement carbon initiatives than its European cousin. This could spark an escalation with the US imposing economic penalties of its own, potentially fracturing the already shaky US-EU alliance. While the measures proposed by the Commission are far from becoming law, the response to them illustrates the sensitivity of the issue: such proposals have high costs, and those footing the bill are usually reluctant to take them on. This is especially true of climate legislation, which is often seen as an elite project with the cost being carried by the poor. Still, with the frequency and severity of climatological events on the rise, the long-term cost of inaction may be still greater. Great wisdom is needed to tactfully and effectively mitigate tomorrow’s disasters with today’s resources.

The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t the Problem. Iran Is.

James Jeffrey and Dennis Ross, The Atlantic

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As President Biden has made clear his intentions to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran, the necessity of understanding the country’s self-perception and role in Middle Eastern geographical dynamics has become all the more urgent. The reasons to limit Iran’s nuclear capability are clear: one need only look at Tehran’s destabilizing influence in Israel, Yemen, Lebanon, or a host of other nations to see that the state is an untrustworthy actor. But such a deal only addresses Iran’s nuclear capacity; it does nothing to address its resistance ideology or regional agenda. As Iran has become more active in imposing its will, it has become that much more important to determine, as Henry Kissinger put it, whether Iran is a country or a cause. The JCPOA was initially created to prevent the escalation of conflict through traditional carrot-and-stick diplomacy, but has largely failed to rein in Iranian aggression. The Biden administration has taken notice and hardened its stance towards Tehran, but the question remains: how will it continue to advance stability in the region after the JCPOA is renewed (as the authors expect to happen by the end of the year)? America’s allies in the region, such as Israel and Turkey, will be key players in impeding Iran’s advance and de-escalating the complex web of diplomacy that is the Middle East.