President Biden traveled across Europe last week with the goal of strengthening relations with European allies and renewing multilateral collaboration on critical global issues such as climate change and trade policy. In our summaries this week, we review two initiatives agreed to during Biden’s trip which are intended to help the West compete with a more aggressive and risk-taking China. We also look at the domestic challenges facing Europe, and the impact newly elected Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will have on the ongoing nuclear talks. 

G7 set to agree ‘green belt and road’ plan to counter China’s influence

George Parker, Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe, and Leslie Hook, Financial Times

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U.S., EU Forge Closer Ties on Emerging Technologies to Counter Russia and China

Daniel Michaels, The Wall Street Journal

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The US and its European allies are stepping up their cooperation on several global issues in order to better compete with adversaries, mainly China. US President Joe Biden centered his weeklong trip to Europe on strengthening ties with Western allies, a relationship that was strained by former President Donald Trump. At the G7 Summit in Cornwall, leaders agreed to the Build Back Better World plan, which many are calling the “green belt and road”. The program seeks to mobilize billions of dollars in financing for green infrastructure projects around the world. The program will boost funding from multilateral development banks and the private sector to grant countries improved access to financing specifically for low-carbon projects, providing an alternative to Chinese loans while at the same time promoting climate-friendly development. Also on his trip to Europe, President Biden met with leaders from the European Union (EU) to discuss cooperation on technology regulation, industrial development, and bilateral trade in an effort to better compete with China and Russia on emerging technologies. Central to this effort will be a new high-level Trade and Technology Council (TTC) which will aim to boost innovation and investment between the US and EU economies and strengthen supply chains, among other tasks. While the “green belt and road” plan and the TTC have both been criticized for lack of detailed strategy, the efforts demonstrate a strengthening of trans-Atlantic cooperation and a step towards greater multilateral collaboration in the face of China’s rise.

Iran’s president-elect Ebrahim Raisi signals tough line on nuclear deal

Najmeh Bozorgmehr and Andrew England, Financial Times 

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Iranian president-elect Ebrahim Raisi’s victory last week has brought full control to hardliners in Iran. In the days following the election, Raisi has made it very clear that his government will take a harder stance on negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal. While the US has said it will rejoin the nuclear agreement that the Trump administration left in 2018 if Iran falls back into compliance with the deal, Raisi has affirmed that Iran will not return to its nuclear commitments unless the US lifts all sanctions; “It was the US that violated the JCPOA, I insist to the US, it is you who were committed to removing sanctions and you did not. Go back to it and implement your commitments.” When asked if he was willing to hold direct negotiations with the US which has been only an observer to the talks so far, Raisi did not give a direct answer and instead repeated that the US should lift sanctions. Further asserting his hardline stance, Raisi said Iran’s support for militant groups across the Middle East and the development of its missile program are non-negotiable. This is bad news for the US who faces pressure from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to expand the nuclear agreement to include these issues for the stability and security of the region. Raisi says he will only support negotiations that meet the nation’s interest and will not tie people’s livelihoods to the nuclear talks, but sanctions relief from the US will be critical if he hopes to ease economic pressures on Iranians.

As Challenges Mount, Can Europe Correct Its Course?

World Politics Review

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The post-WWII order in Europe has been tremendously stressed in recent times. Even with the EU’s passage of a historic collective debt instrument in the wake of the Covid catastrophe, illiberal populist movements within the bloc, increasing pressure from rivals like China and Russia, and a fractured relationship with the US carried over from the Trump years have all weakened the bonds holding the coalition together. The strength and character of these bonds will be increasingly vital in dealing with the issues piling up on Brussels’ plate. To begin, Greece is located at the pivot of an intense economic conflict for control of the eastern Mediterranean. Extremism and division have polarized elections and stifled compromise, neutering legislative agency and consolidating power to the executives willing to use it (see Hungary’s Orban or Poland’s Duda). Weakened bilateral ties with the US and an increasingly contentious relationship with China have hampered trade. If Europe is to resist a wave of populism and authoritarianism sweeping away decades of political progress, it must act decisively to address each of these and other issues. Simply continuing in the status quo – muddling through each crisis with fruitless summits – does not provide the support needed to shore the wall against the tide; if the dam breaks, much of Europe will suffer for it.

Xi’s Gamble: The Race to Consolidate Power and Stave Off Disaster

Jude Blanchette, Foreign Affairs 

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A convergence of demographic, economic, technological, and geopolitical opportunities has pushed Chinese President Xi Jinping into a posture of aggressive risk-taking as he attempts to maneuver China into a position of global ascendancy. While prior leaders have chosen a more patient path to global power, Xi seems to have narrowed his timeline to the coming 10-15 years to take advantage of a shifting global framework. The clock began ticking as soon as Xi was placed in China’s highest office with a sweeping anti-corruption campaign to “clean house” in the CCP.  Having better secured the official and popular levers of government, he moved on to international relations, making claims in the South China Sea, launching the Belt and Road Initiative, and taking a harder line against Hong Kong and Taiwan. These moves were prompted by a multifaceted analysis of the world: Xi saw the West in a state of accelerated decline, a deteriorating economic outlook and shrinking workforce at home, and a plethora of opportunities provided by new technologies as the driving forces that would bring about his ideal for China. At times, Xi’s single-minded determination to bring about this outcome has bordered on a cult of personality – as those familiar with “Xi Jinping Thought” can attest. Similarly, years of defections, coups, and interference within the CCP have created a tendency to paranoia within the upper echelons of its membership, a mindset that has manifested in militant nationalism and drives for doctrinal purity. The sheer breadth and intensity of the programs implemented to reach Xi’s goals have put China into competition with itself. The question is, will the benefits of this colossal push outweigh the excesses of the systems that produced them?  The next 15 years will answer that question. In the meantime, the West must maintain its commitment to its core beliefs; if liberalism is everything we hope it to be, it will take longer than 15 years to take it down.