The world seemed to hold its breath when Covid struck, but the winds of change are blowing once again. Israel and Gaza sit at the edge of war, with violence and unrest mounting. China and Russia continue to strengthen their partnership against the US. Germany sees the balance of power shifting as a third-party candidate has made a strong showing in its elections. And climate change remains a pervasive topic in geopolitical, social, and economic conversations. As the world looks to the future, only those well-rooted in the rock of history will survive the brewing storm.

Death Toll Climbs and Arab-Israeli Protests Intensify as Israel and Gaza Slip Toward War

Shira Rubin and Steve Hendrix, The Washington Post

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Over the last few days, the worst violence in years between the Israeli military and Gaza militants has erupted, pushing the region towards a civil war. In response to Israeli airstrikes that brought down a 13-story building in Gaza, Hamas, the group that has control over the Gaza Strip, has been firing rockets at Tel Aviv. At a recent cabinet meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had rejected requests from Hamas to negotiate a cease-fire and would expand the operation against Hamas, estimating the military operation would take at least another week. As a result of the violence and the disregard for the lives of civilians, more than 65 Gazans and 6 Israelis, including many children, have died. Meanwhile, the conflict has sparked mass civil unrest among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Groups of mostly young men have taken to the streets in protest of systemic anti-Arab discrimination and oppression by Israel. Riots have also broken out, with several synagogues and city buildings set on fire, and clashes between Arabs and Jews across several Israeli cities have become deadly. Esawi Frej, an Arab Knesset member, tweeted “Hamas missiles are the least of our problems for a country in which Jewish and Arab rioters take to the street to lynch civilians.”

Russia and China’s Dangerous Convergence

Andrea Kendall-Taylor and David Shullman, Foreign Affairs

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As China and Russia continue to forge deeper ties, the US increasingly finds itself struggling against antagonists on two fronts. While the Kremlin and Beijing are not exactly allies, the gap between them is narrowing as both have rejected the West and democracy in favor of authoritarian rule. The Biden administration has made it clear that countering China is one of its primary foreign policy concerns, while Moscow’s threat is further down the list. Though China is certainly the stronger partner, there is little doubt that the two pose a greater threat together than apart. In addition to military and economic partnerships, the two countries are also taking notes on the other’s approach to governance, with crackdowns on dissent and international misinformation campaigns becoming more and more common. On the other hand, Russia’s alignment with China is more a partnership of convenience than ideological cohesion, leaving an avenue for the US to pull the Kremlin away from Beijing through strategic partnerships in key arenas. In addition, Russia has traditionally avoided subservience to other nations, and emphasizing this point may go a long way in splitting Russia off from China. In the meantime, the US must be prepared for a variety of possibilities, including military action. With the rivalry deepening on increasingly ideological lines, the world order will be determined by how its major players choose to act in the coming years.

The Geopolitics of Climate Change

Frans Timmermans and Josep Borrell, Project Syndicate

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Climate change remains one of the largest topics of international discussion and debate. The complicated and often polarizing balance between today’s necessary sacrifices and tomorrow’s potential benefits has made cooperation difficult, even among like-minded nations. One primary reason for this is the necessary power shift away from hydrocarbon energy giants to renewable energy’s beneficiaries. Countries once shackled by energy imports will find themselves, exporters of green technologies, while once-indispensable energy resources will see their demand plummet. The decreased reliance on scarce energy sources will level the playing field significantly, but renewable energy’s democratizing forces will be limited by the sector’s reliance on other similarly rare raw materials. For this reason, the alliances and infrastructure needed for the power grid of the future need to be forged today. There are geopolitical risks and uncharted territory in the green revolution, but history shows that the world has always benefited from more efficient energy sources; the winners and losers of such a shift are not always clear, but the change must occur if we are to step into the next phase of progress.

Annalena Baerbock Holds the Keys to Germany’s Next Election

Sophie Garbe, Konstantin von Hammerstein, Christoph Hickmann, et. al., Der Speigel

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With the dynamic leadership potential of Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Green Party stands a chance in the elections this fall. Germany finds itself in a time of transition and change with the top two agenda items being the pandemic recovery and climate change. The “old way of doing things” has not proven itself effective in the crisis of the Covid-19 pandemic, giving momentum to the Green Party which is ready to have a leading role in Germany’s next government. Baerbock’s primary opponents are Armin Laschet from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Olaf Scholz who is running for the Social Democrats (SPD). Baerbock, a political scientist with a focus on international law, is a strong speaker and has clear ambitions, but is willing to compromise when necessary. One of the strongest arguments against her is the lack of government experience she has, especially compared to Laschet and Scholz. However, this lack of experience could be an advantage as the challenges facing Germany now and in the coming years are so new and different. Though notoriously divided, the Green Party is more unified than ever, giving it more credibility and increasing its chances in the upcoming election. While it is unlikely it will win the majority alone, the most likely coalition the fall elections might produce is a pairing of the Green Party with the Union, which would open the opportunity for Baerbock to either be chancellor or the vice-chancellor. Another possible outcome could be a Green-SPD-Left party coalition, which would also present an opportunity for Baerbock to be given a leading role in Germany’s future.