Here are the biggest issues to watch around the globe over the coming month:

The Russia Investigation

The investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election is heating up, with Special Counsel Robert Mueller issuing 13 indictments against Russian people and 3 indictments on Russian businesses on February 16. The charges focus primarily on the propaganda efforts of the Internet Research Agency that intended to communicate derogatory information about Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton as well as several candidates in the Primary Election. On Tuesday, Mueller indicted London-based attorney Alex van der Zwaan for making false statements to the FBI about his communication with Richard Gates, deputy to Paul Manafort who was Trump’s campaign manager. The Russia investigation could seriously harm relations between the U.S. and Russia – an already delicate relationship. It is almost indisputable that Russia intervened in the U.S. election. The only question that remains, and that Mueller’s investigation seeks to identify over the coming weeks, is the extent to which this was a state-led effort to undermine U.S. democracy.

 

Latin America

The lights went out in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, last week. For many, the lights going out represents the end of democracy and prosperity in the country. President Maduro’s party has been in talks with the opposition for 16 months, to no avail. The opposition have forced him repeatedly to restore democratic institutions. Maduro has since banned the opposition. In response, the U.S. has established a working group with Canada and Mexico to study whether banning oil exports could put enough pressure on Venezuela to restore democratic governance. Oil sanctions would likely worsen the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela but are unlikely to have an impact on Maduro’s rule.

 

China: Xi Jingping strengthens his grip 

Xi Jingping became the first Chinese leader to be referred to as “Lingxiu” since Mao Zedong. “Lingxiu” means leader, but is more symbolic than other words for leader, and implies that Xi now represents the core of the leadership. The title makes clear that Xi Jingping has a stronghold over the Chinese government and is not going anywhere soon. The Chinese government has lots to concern itself, however, as shadow banking and a growing housing bubble continue. Property prices in Chinese cities have quadrupled since the turn of the millennium – a growth rate that far outpaces the U.S. housing bubble. Yet so far, the government has not allowed prices to fall by restricting funding to developers and making it harder to buy when real estate markets overheat. Officials have recently started discussing a long-term mechanism to calm the housing markets to prevent a speculative bubble bursting. This includes three main approaches: 1) improving the rental market in China; 2) introducing a property tax; and 3) better balancing supply and demand by expanding the availability of land (a positive measure) and imposing limits on large cities (a negative measure). Capital controls, paired with rising incomes and an expanding professional workforce, place upward pressures on the Chinese housing market. If the bubble bursts, the world will feel the shock. Even the Lingxiu, powerful as he is, might feel the shock.

 

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