Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial, and geopolitical issues in the months ahead:

North America

• Yesterday, US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a two-hour virtual summit. Discussion of Ukraine seemed to be the highlight of the encounter between the two leaders.  Biden warned Putin that the US was ready to impose strong economic penalties and increase military support to Ukraine if Russia were to invade Ukraine. On the other hand, Putin reportedly warned Biden that Western military activity in and around Ukraine was approaching a “red line.” Ukraine has been a hotspot for tensions between the West and Russia over the last several years, and it may be coming to a boiling point. 
• The US has announced a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the US will not send government officials to the event, but that the Biden administration fully supports the American athletes that will compete. Australia has also joined the diplomatic boycott. The boycott comes amid “ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang and other human rights abuses.” In response, China says it will take “resolute countermeasures.”
• In an attempt to lower gas prices at the pump, President Biden has announced a plan to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in coordination with several other countries, including China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom. Biden’s plan entails the US Department of Energy releasing 50 million barrels of oil from the SPR while these other major energy-consuming nations take similar steps. The move comes after OPEC+ resisted calls to boost production despite rising oil prices.
• President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held a “respectful and straightforward” virtual meeting last month. During the call, the two leaders discussed cooperation on issues like climate change and global energy security, and brought up tensions on issues including trade, Taiwan, and human rights.
• November was a busy month for lawmakers on the Hill. After months of inter- and intra-party negotiations, Congress passed the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) in a 228-206 vote. The $1.2 trillion bill seeks to improve transportation, broadband, and other “hard” infrastructure in America and has been hailed by President Joe Biden as a “once-in-a-generation investment. The House also passed Biden’s $1.75 trillion social spending package, called the “Build Back Better” plan, which includes funding for universal pre-school, affordable housing programs, carbon emissions, and lowering prescription drug costs, among other issues. The bill now faces an uncertain future in the Senate. Late last week, lawmakers also passed yet another stopgap measure to prevent a government shutdown and fund the government through February 18^th.
• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador met President Biden at the White House a couple of weeks ago for the first “Three Amigos” summit since former US President Donald Trump ended the tradition in 2017. The three leaders discussed trade and energy tensions, as well as common issues like Covid-19 vaccinations and cutting methane emissions.

Europe

• Concerns of a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine are mounting. At a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meeting last week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called for Russia to de-escalate and warned other countries they should be “prepared for the worst.” In the last several weeks, there has been a clear buildup of Russian forces in and around Ukraine, sparking fears from Kyiv that Moscow is preparing an invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked NATO to consider sanctioning Russia and has also called for direct talks with Moscow.
• Today, the leader of the Social Democrat Party, Olaf Scholz, officially became Germany’s next chancellor. The swearing in of Scholz brings Angela Merkel’s 16-year reign to an end. Scholz managed to bring together the Green Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Social Democrats to form a governing coalition, bringing the center-left into power. 
• Europe has, once again, become the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic, prompting several countries to reimpose restrictions and extend state of emergency orders. In response to this “fourth wave”, Austria has declared a nationwide lockdown and has also become the first country in Europe to mandate that all citizens are vaccinated against Covid-19. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has encouraged all European countries to consider vaccine mandates. 
• Tensions at the Belarus-Poland border sparked last month. Poland accused Belarus of “exploiting migrants” claiming its actions were a play of revenge for the EU sanctions that were imposed on Belarus last year to punish Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s government for cracking down on political opponents. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called out Lukashenko’s government for “instrumentalizing migrants” and has urged EU members to approve further sanctions against Minsk.
• Interior Minister Karl Nehammer has been named Austria’s new chancellor after former chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s shocking resignation. Kurz stepped down from leadership after becoming implicated in a corruption scandal, causing fresh political upheaval. Besides nominating a new chancellor, Austria’s ruling party has also recently appointed a new finance minister after Kurz’s ally Gernot Bluemel also resigned.

Asia, Eurasia & the Pacific

• As many Western countries begin tapering their pandemic stimulus, Japan has approved a record stimulus package to support its economy amidst the Covid-19 pandemic. The spending bill, worth nearly $490 billion, has been green-lighted by Japan’s Cabinet and will likely be approved by the country’s parliament this month. The package includes financial aid for businesses and $880 stimulus checks to adults 18 or older, among other support measures. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hopes this stimulus package will give the economy the boost it desperately needs. Japan’s economy contracted by an annualized 3% in the third quarter, driving the country into a recession.
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the government would repeal all three farming sector reform laws. The reforms have been the source of year-long demonstrations in the country. The move is a major win for the hundreds of thousands of India’s farmers who have been demanding the repeal of what they call “black laws”.
• Myanmar’s deposed civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been sentenced to two years in prison on charges of incitement and breaching coronavirus restrictions. Human rights organizations, the European Union, Japan, the United Kingdom, and other countries have condemned the charges. The Myanmar court’s decision is a likely result of the military’s continued crackdown on the country and its consolidation of power. Suu Kyiv was ousted in February by a military coup. Since then, she, and other leaders from her party, have been detained and faced with dozens of criminal charges. Suu Kyiv faces additional charges which could lead to prison sentences of more than 100 years total.
• Australia and New Zealand are the latest countries to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), joining Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Japan. The trade agreement will cover a market of 2.2 billion people and $26.2 trillion in global output, making it the world’s largest trade deal. RCEP will go into force on January 1^st.

Middle East

• In recent weeks, there has been little cause for optimism on a revived nuclear deal between the US, Europe, and Iran. Last week, at talks in Vienna, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “I have to tell you, recent moves, recent rhetoric, don’t give us a lot of cause for … optimism.” On the other side, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has questioned the resolve of American and European negotiators saying, “We went to Vienna with serious determination, but we are not optimistic about the will and the intention of the United States and the three European parties to the deal.” Iranian negotiators have provided European delegates, who are facilitating talks between the US and Iran, with drafts on sanctions removal and nuclear commitments. After a five-month hiatus, nuclear deal negotiations are continuing in Vienna.
• As Iran focuses on nuclear talks in Vienna, Israel is readying its military for all possible scenarios, including conflict with Iran. Israel’s concerns of a nuclearized Iran have heightened as Iran has continued to build up its uranium stockpile. Mossad’s director David Barnea has pledged that Iran will never have nuclear weapons: “Iran will not have nuclear weapons — not in the coming years, not ever. That is my promise, that is Mossad’s promise.” Addressing the issue of Iran’s nuclearization last week, Defense Minister Benny Gantz said the military option was always on the table. Barnea will head to Washington this week for talks in the US on this very issue.
• Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi survived an alleged assassination attempt last month. Two armed drones were launched at his home in Baghdad, but one of the drones was shot down by the military. The attack comes amid political turmoil in the country. Just days before the event, demonstrations by Iran-backed political factions that lost ground in October’s parliamentary elections turned violent, and in recent days, Prime Minister al-Kadhimi had received threats from Iran-backed armed groups. However, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
• Lebanon’s Information Minister George Kordahi resigned last week after causing a diplomatic rift between with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. In late October, Kordahi made comments that the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen was acting in self-defense, which enraged Saudi Arabia who supports the opposing side in Yemen’s war. In response to the comments, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador and banned all Lebanese imports while Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait took similar actions. Kordahi’s resignation is hoped to simmer regional tensions.

Latin America and the Caribbean

• Brazil has slipped into recession for the second year in a row as its GDP fell 0.1% in the third quarter. The economy has been bogged down by Covid-19, drought, high interest rates, and skyrocketing inflation. Additional concern about public finances has arisen as President Jair Bolsonaro’s government pushes for changes to an austerity law so that it can boost social spending ahead of the 2022 election. According to the central bank, analysts have slashed their GDP forecasts for the country and now expect economic growth to slow to less than 0.6% next year from 4.8% in 2021.
• Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro will become Honduras’ first female president after she defeated National Party contender Nasry Asfura. Asfura has officially conceded the election to Castro, ending the Honduras National Party’s 12-year rule. Though the country has not finished tallying the votes, it looks as though Castro’s Libre party, and its main allies, will gain the majority. The Honduras political environment has been plagued with scandals and government corruption during the two terms of outgoing President Juan Orlando Hernandez. Castro’s victory is seen as a fresh start by many of her supporters, but she will face major challenges as Honduras has been overcome with crime, corruption, and joblessness. 
• Chile’s candidates José Antonio Kast and Gabriel Boric will head into a tense presidential runoff on December 19^th. In November’s election, Kast came out above Boric with 28% of the vote but failed to garner enough votes to win the presidential election. The polarizing political battle in Chile stands against the backdrop of President Sebastián Piñera’s impeachment trial. Piñera was impeached by the lower house of Congress over allegations of corruption in the sale of a mining company. However, the Senate voted against impeaching Piñera so he will remain in office until March.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• The civil war in Ethiopia continues to gain momentum. Last month, Ethiopia’s Tigrayan forces joined with several other armed opposition groups to create a formal alliance against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. At a news conference in Washington, DC, the new alliance, called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces, said it planned to topple Abiy’s government by negotiations or by force. In recent days, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said he would join the battlefield to lead a counteroffensive against Tigrayan rebels. Since then, the government has reportedly retaken a few towns captured by Tigrayan forces. International calls for a ceasefire continue.
• Ousted Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has signed an agreement with the military to be reinstated. Hamdok had been deposed in a military coup on October 25^th. Despite the agreement between Hamdok and the military, mass demonstrations have continued. Pro-democracy groups are calling the deal a betrayal that legitimizes the military coup.
• The Ugandan military and forces from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have partnered to take down the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an armed group which Ugandan authorities have blamed for suicide bombings in Kampala earlier this month and which has also been accused of attacks in the eastern DRC. Last week, Ugandan forces, assisted by the DRC, launched airstrikes against the ADF.
• Gambia’s President Adama Barrow easily won re-election, receiving 53% of the vote. In the last election, Barrow defeated 22-year ruler Yahya Jammeh, who was forced into exile after refusing to accept the election results. Even in exile in Equatorial Guinea, Jammeh has successfully addressed supporters in Gambia remotely, encouraging them to vote against Barrow. This time around, opposition candidates are, again, refusing to accept the election results and have since challenged the figures.

World

• Bringing the end of the United Nations Climate Conference, COP26, leaders agreed to the Glasgow Climate Pact. The agreement establishes rules for an international carbon market, details the need for countries to reduce coal use and fossil fuel subsidies, and calls for an increase in climate funding for developing countries, among other climate action measures. Dozens of other climate action pledges and agreements were made on the sidelines of the conference, including a US-China agreement to cooperate on decarbonization efforts.

Suggested Reading

Do boycotts of sports events, such as the Beijing winter Olympics, work?

The Economist

How Biden’s “Democracy Summit” Might Actually Benefit the Americas

Oliver Stuenkel, Americas Quarterly

Green Upheaval

Jason Bordoff & Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Foreign Affairs

Ukraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russia

Jonathan Masters, The Council on Foreign Relations