Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: 

North America

• Last month, the US announced a series of measures against Russia, including financial sanctions and the expulsion of diplomats, in retaliation for the SolarWinds hacking, interference in US elections, and a CIA report that Russia was paying bounties to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan. The sanctions come amid a buildup of Russian troops in Ukraine and Crimea which has led the US to reaffirm their support of Ukraine. In response to the buildup, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the country is considering sending additional military.
• The US ordered non-essential staff to leave the embassy in Afghanistan amid a threat of increased violence from the Taliban. President Biden announced a few weeks ago that the US would withdraw all combat troops from Afghanistan by September 11th of this year, extending the withdrawal date several months from the May 1^st deadline established under last year’s US-Taliban agreement. The Taliban has threatened to launch attacks in Afghanistan if the US does not adhere to the Agreement. Afghanistan has said its military will not backdown if the Taliban rejects peace talks and continues to fight. The country has also called for the US and NATO to honor their funding commitments to Afghan military forces.
• The Biden administration is backing an effort to waive intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The proposal, brought to the table by a group of countries led by India and South Africa, would allow countries to produce generic versions of the vaccine in hopes that it would aid global vaccination efforts. Several US pharmaceutical companies have opposed the proposal arguing that it could hinder innovation, strain the supply of vaccine ingredients, and lead to the creation of counterfeit shots. Though it is critical of the effort, the European Union has agreed to engage in discussions.
• On Earth Day, April 22^nd, US President Joe Biden hosted a two-day virtual climate summit, demonstrating his desire to make the US a global leader in combating climate change. Forty world leaders attended, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and several countries made pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Among some of the announcements was a commitment by the US to halve its emissions by 2030, a pledge from the United Kingdom (UK) to cut emissions by 78% of its 1990 level by 2035, and a goal set by Brazil to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

Europe

• After multiple reports of a buildup of Russian troops in Ukraine, the Russian defense ministry ordered the withdrawal of some Russian troops from the Crimea region. However, while troops are being pulled back from Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, there has also been a buildup of Russian military forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. It is estimated by European officials that Russia has deployed nearly 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, heightening concerns of a full-scale war with Ukraine. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has welcomed the withdrawal saying it would help reduce tensions, given that Russian aggression in the region is greatly concerning.
• The European Parliament overwhelmingly voted in favor of the post-Brexit trade deal between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), completing the agreement’s last step before full ratification and bringing an end to nearly four years of negotiations and debate over the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the ratification would provide much-needed stability to UK-EU relations, allowing them to move forward and focus on the future.
• The eurozone has officially slipped back into a recession. The bloc reported a 1.7% annualized decrease in GDP for the first quarter of 2021, showing just how much the region has struggled to contain the Covid-19 virus and vaccinate its citizens. The pandemic has forced governments to prolong lockdown measures for the last several months. In sharp contrast, the US reported a 6.4% annualized increase in GDP for the first quarter of this year.
• Efforts to ratify an Investment Agreement between the European Union and China are on pause. The politically icy environment is not conducive to the ratification of the Investment Agreement. Back in March, the EU sanctioned Chinese officials in response to the imprisonment of Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region of China. In response, China launched retaliatory sanctions against the European parliament further straining the relationship with the EU.

Asia, Eurasia & the Pacific

• Over the last month, India has become the epicenter of the coronavirus. The country continues to exhibit record-breaking death rates and case numbers week after week as hospitals struggle to keep up with the pandemic’s devastation. Yesterday, India reported more than 366,000 new cases and more than 3,700 deaths, marking yet another record-high day. The wave of infections has also forced India, a major producer of Covid-19 vaccines, to delay global exports of the shots as they try to meet domestic vaccine demand and bring infection rates down. Several countries, including the US, are pledging aid to India.
• The situation in Myanmar has escalated to near civil war over the last month as rebel groups battle against Myanmar’s junta. The military has launched airstrikes against ethnic rebel groups who have seized an army base near the country’s eastern border with Thailand. At an emergency summit, Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) called for an immediate end to violence in Myanmar, calling the military junta to cease its crackdown on protesters, engage in dialogue mediated by an ASEAN special envoy, and allow the delivery of humanitarian aid.
• In an escalation of tensions, China has suspended economic dialogue with Australia claiming the country has adopted a “Cold War mindset and ideological discrimination.” Relations between the two countries have soured since Australia called for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus. Since then, China has banned various Australian imports, impacting the commodities sector in particular.
• In a continued display of aggression towards Taiwan, China once again entered Taiwanese airspace after the US warned China against invading the territory. Furthermore, as an unofficial US delegation visited Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei, China held six-day live-fire exercises off the coast of Taiwan near the disputed “Pratas islands” in what was seen as a “declaration of sovereignty”. As China increases its polemical stand toward Taiwan, international groups like the Group of 7 continue to call for peace in the region.
• Japan’s legislature approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade deal that includes all ten members of ASEAN as well as Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The trade Agreement will get rid of tariffs for 91% of products and ease trade restrictions in the region. The trade deal is also the first Japan has entered with China and South Korea.

Middle East

• The fourth and possibly final round of talks over the Iran Nuclear Deal began this weekend in Vienna. Negotiations are aimed at bringing the US back into the deal, which the Trump administration had withdrawn from in 2018. Since the US’ withdrawal, Iran has fallen out of compliance with the Agreement by enriching their uranium stockpiles.  While progress has been made over the last several weeks, significant gaps remain. Iran refuses to return to compliance with the deal unless the US lifts all sanctions, but the Biden administration has signaled that Iran should not expect any new concessions.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has once again failed to form a government, prolonging the country’s historically long period of political gridlock and likely ending his position as Israel’s longest-serving leader. President of Israel Reuven Rivlin has given Yair Lapid, the leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, 28 days to form a coalition government.
• Amid a political dispute over voting in Israel-controlled East Jerusalem, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has postponed Palestine’s parliamentary elections. The delay of the elections, which would have been the first in 15 years, has sparked protests from the opposition party Hamas, creating political unrest for the Palestinians. In the past, Israel has allowed some Palestinians living in the East Jerusalem area to vote, but due to its own political instability, Israel currently has no government to approve Palestine’s voting request this time around. Abbas is blaming Israel for the voting uncertainty, but critics suggest Abbas is using the Jerusalem issue as an excuse to avoid the elections that the Fatah party may lose to Hamas. Since this past weekend violence between Israeli forces and Palestinians has erupted around the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Temple Mount.  
• Days of violent protests by the now-banned Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) party broke out in Pakistan last month. The group has demanded the expulsion of the French ambassador to Pakistan after the publication in France of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed. The leader of TLP was arrested and the group was banned shortly after its members blocked main highways, railways and access routes to major cities, and assaulted police. However, after negotiations between Pakistan’s government and the TLP, their leader has been released and a resolution was put before parliament on whether to expel the ambassador.

Latin America and the Caribbean

• Last week, thousands of Colombians took to the streets in protest against a controversial tax reform proposal. Colombian President Ivan Duque’s proposed tax reform would increase taxes on individuals and businesses in an effort to raise about $6 billion. Critics of the bill say the tax hikes would disproportionately impact middle and working classes, especially in the middle of a pandemic. Though President Duque has withdrawn the bill, protests continue. At least two dozen people have been killed and more than 800 injured as police have cracked down on protests and military troops have been called in.
• Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro is being investigated by the Brazilian Senate over his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Bolsonaro has faced harsh criticism throughout the pandemic for downplaying the virus and opposing lockdown measures, which his critics believe is why the country has the second-highest Covid-19 death rate in the world. Brazil has topped 400,000 deaths from the Covid-19 virus, trailing only the US in total deaths and accounting for 13% of total global Covid-related deaths. The probe could hurt Bolsonaro’s re-election campaign as he faces off against former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
• Raul Castro has stepped down as the leader of Cuba’s Communist Party, ending the six-decade reign of the Castro family. Poor leadership, the pandemic and financial restrictions placed on the country by the Trump administration have devastated the economy, fueling discontent in the country and exacerbating inequality. Castro did not specify who he would endorse as his successor, but he has previously indicated turning over control to Miguel Díaz-Canel, who succeeded him as president in 2018.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• South Africa’s former President Cyril Ramaphosa testified before a panel investigating alleged corruption by his administration. For the first time, he acknowledged his party’s role in the scandal and admitted they allowed the systematic looting and could have done more to prevent the abuse of power. It is estimated by Ramaphosa himself that his administration’s corrupt practices cost the economy tens of billions of dollars.
• Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed has agreed to step down from power three months after his term was supposed to end. Though the president’s term officially ended in February, the lower house of parliament voted to extend his term by two years, sending the country into a political crisis. Violent clashes in the country’s capital, Mogadishu, which split security forces along clan lines, heightened political tensions and drew international pressure on the president to resign. The government is now calling for immediate elections.
• President of Chad Idriss Deby Itno died from injuries sustained during a fight against rebel forces. News of his death came just hours after he had been declared winner of Chad’s most recent presidential election, giving him another 6-years in power to tack onto his 30-year reign. The military has named President Deby’s son as the country’s interim leader for the next 18-months.
• Eritrea acknowledged that it has troops in the Tigray region of Ethiopia to aid the Ethiopian federal government fight the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. For months, both Eritrea and Ethiopia denied the involvement of Eritrean troops despite contradicting reports from rights groups, aid workers, and diplomats. . After being accused of committing atrocities in the region, Eritrea’s ambassador to the United Nations said the country agrees to withdraw its forces.

World

• The Group of 7 (G7) foreign ministers held an in-person meeting in London last week to discuss several global issues including Chinese aggression and Russia’s disinformation campaigns. In a strongly worded communique, the group called on China to refrain from aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, to stop human rights abuses, and participate in the rules-based international system. The communique also noted the buildup of Russian troops on Ukrainian borders and in “illegally-annexed” Crimea, while reiterating the group’s interest in stable relations with Russia.

Suggested Reading

China and Russia’s Dangerous Convergence

Andrea Kendall-Taylor and David Shullman, Foreign Affairs

Should patents on covid-19 vaccines be suspended?

The Economist

Protests in Colombia Could Foreshadow a Regional Wave of Unrest

Benjamin Wilhelm, World Politics Review