Here is a summary of the most important events that unfolded last month, and which may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead:
North America
- Former vice president Joe Biden has been declared the winner of the US presidential election. However, President Trump has yet to concede, launching dozens of lawsuits in swing states providing no proof of fraud.. So far, the lawsuits have not gained any traction as states recounted votes, reconfirming Biden’s victory. The Democrats have maintained control of the House of Representatives and a run-off election in January will determine which party takes control of the Senate. The President-elect has begun naming his cabinet, including Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary, Antony Blinken as Secretary of State, and John Kerry as Climate Envoy.
- Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said US-Iran relations can “return to conditions” prior to President Trump’s time in office. Restoring the 2015 nuclear agreement will be one of President-Elect Joe Biden’s top foreign policy priorities when he enters office. Just this week, President Rouhani rejected a bill approved by parliament which would stop international inspections on the country’s nuclear program and boost uranium enrichment, as such approval would hurt diplomatic efforts between Iran and the US.
- Over the last month, the US has struggled to control a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The number of Covid-19 cases in the US reached 4 million in the month of November alone. The continued rise has prompted some state governors to reinstate stay-at-home orders and reimpose social-distancing restrictions through the end of the year, especially as we head into the holiday season.
- The US formally withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty after accusing Russia of violating the agreement. The pact, which has more than thirty signatories, allows members to fly unarmed aircraft over each other’s territory for reconnaissance. Russia has denied any violations and sees the action as the latest move by the Trump administration to abandon major arms-control agreements.
- The Pentagon issued a statement that the US would be reducing its troop presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, keeping only 2,500 troops in each country. The drawdowns are slated to occur by January 15th, days before President-Elect Biden takes office. The move has drawn criticism at home and abroad, as the US comprises the bulk of NATO military and logistical support in the region. Critics are concerned the decreased presence will permit the growth of terrorist cells and the self-proclaimed Islamic State.
Europe
- The European Union is drafting a new plan to reset its relationship with the US. The EU hopes to facilitate cooperation on a host of issues, such as digital regulations and Covid-19 vaccines, specifically to counter the “strategic challenge” presented by China. It is expected that the plan will be presented for approval next month and calls for an EU-US summit sometime next year.
- European leaders are facing a difficult December. Brexit negotiations have restarted after being temporarily suspended when senior negotiator, Michel Barnier, tested positive for Covid-19. This week’s talks in London have made some progress, but gaps still remain just weeks before Britain will transition out of the EU on December 31st. Furthermore, the bloc is dealing with a budget standoff after Hungary and Poland vetoed the European Union budget and the coronavirus package contained within it. January’s EU leader’s summit will be crucial in finding a solution to the standoff.
- British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has laid out a new plan for a “green industrial revolution” with hopes that the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic can be green. He has pledged that the UK will end the sale of new gas- and diesel-powered cars by 2030 and will become the “Saudi Arabia of wind.”
- Russia is imposing sanctions on Germany and France in retaliation for the sanctions imposed on Russia over the poisoning of Russian dissident Alexey Navalny with a Soviet-era nerve agent. While Russia has denied any involvement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesperson said use of the nerve agent was “a serious violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention and so of international law.”
Asia and the Pacific
- Tensions between Australia and China have been escalating due to trade disputes as well as due to how China provoked Australia with a doctored image of an Australian soldier holding a knife to an Afghan child’s throat. Australia has demanded an apology from China.
- China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the 10 ASEAN member countries have signed the world’s new largest trade deal. The trade deal is called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and aims to reduce tariffs, strengthen supply chains, and codify new e-commerce rules in the region. Beijing sees the RCEP as an opportunity to influence regional rules and diversify supply chains amid its trade war with the US.
- India and China are closing in on a plan to ease border tensions after fighting broke out on their shared border earlier this year, resulting in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. The plan will involve no-patrol zones, removing tanks and artillery from the border, and using drones to verify the withdrawal. The un-demarcated 3,800-km long India-China border has been the source of tension between the two countries for decades.
- Hong Kong’s pro-democracy lawmakers resigned after four of their colleagues were disqualified from serving on Hong Kong’s legislature by a new law imposed by Beijing. Under the new rule, people are barred from serving on Hong Kong’s Legislative Council if they support independence, do not recognize Beijing’s sovereignty, or “endanger national security”, among other things. The mainland has denounced the resignations as an “open challenge” to Beijing’s authority.
- Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a truce in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russia-brokered agreement has prompted protests in Armenia and celebrations in Azerbaijan, which will be allowed to keep the territory it claimed during the conflict. Turkey will be jointly enforcing the deal with Russia as both send peacekeepers to monitor the truce.
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