Here is a summary of the most important events that took place last month, and as they are unfolding may affect economic, financial and geopolitical issues in the months ahead: 

North America

• The run up to November’s presidential election has been full of drama so far. The first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, which was held this week, was full of frequent interruptions and personal insults but featured very little discussion of policies from either candidate. Though Biden leads in national polls, there is still much uncertainty over the election outcome. The widespread use of mail-in ballots, thanks to Covid-19, has sparked concern that election results will not be confirmed until nearly a week after election day. Recent comments made by President Trump suggest he may challenge an unfavorable election outcome on the basis of election fraud tied to mail-in ballots. On top of this, the fact that President Trump has been infected by the virus, may complicate the election picture even further.
• Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away from complications related to cancer on September 18^th. Justice Ginsburg was deeply admired and respected my many for championing women’s rights and bringing about greater gender equality in the US. Her steadfast leadership for the rule of law was unmatched. Rightfully so, Justice Ginsburg became the first woman to lie in state. President Trump has already nominated Amy Coney Barrett to fill Justice Ginsburg’s spot despite calls from the Democratic party to allow November’s election winner to make the nomination.
• A grand jury indicted an officer in connection with the police killing of Breonna Taylor who was shot in her home in Louisville, Kentucky. The incident which has been one of many to spark months of nationwide protests against policy brutality and institutional racism. However, the officer was only charged with wanton endangerment for endangering the neighbors which has ignited outrage and reinvigorated protests over police brutality. The night of the verdict, the city of Louisville declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew, but a few riots sprang up which resulted in a shooting of 2 police officers. Both have since recovered. City officials have agreed to pay Breonna Taylor’s family $12 million and institute changes aimed at preventing future deaths by officers. 
• A US federal judge has temporarily blocked the White House’s ban on downloads of the popular Chinese-owned video app TikTok. However, additional restrictions which are set to go into effect on November 12^th are still on schedule. Meanwhile, the team made up of Oracle and Walmart have reportedly struck a deal with TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, though the specific details of the deal have not been confirmed.  
• The US announced a snapback of United Nations (UN) sanctions on Iran, triggering international criticism. The sanctions had previously been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, which the US pulled out of in 2018. Other parties to the nuclear deal, such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, believe the US lacks the authority to reimpose sanctions on Iran because they are no longer participating in the agreement. The US has also declared that the UN arms embargo on Iran has been reimposed indefinitely. Iran is demanding compensation for the damages caused by US sanctions and has promised the remaining parties to the 2015 nuclear deal that they will uphold the agreement.
• California, Oregon, and Washington were devastated by wildfires in September, and, unfortunately, many new fires have cropped up over the last few days. Wildfires that began during a heat wave in mid-August burned a record-breaking area of more than 3.7 million acres and have resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people.

Europe

• Tensions between the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) over a post-Brexit trade deal have reached a new peak. This past month, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson proposed a bill that would undo the UK’s commitments under the EU withdrawal agreement and would, therefore, violate international law. The Internal Market Bill, as it is being called, would breach the UK’s promise to provide customs oversight to Northern Ireland which, under the withdrawal agreement, would remain part of the EU’s single market and customs union. The EU has officially threatened to take legal action if the UK does not withdraw the bill.
• While the UK has been struggling to reach a trade deal with the EU, they have successfully brokered a trade deal with Japan that will likely go into effect in January of 2021. The bilateral trade deal is very similar to the Japan-EU agreement, allowing both Japan and the UK to continue benefiting from the advantages gained in the Japan-EU free trade deal. Furthermore, the UK has agreed to phase out tariffs on Japanese autos by 2026.
• Despite weeks of anti-government protests and pressure from international governments to step down, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was inaugurated for a sixth presidential term in an unannounced ceremony last week. Protesters have demanded his resignation and the EU and US, among others, have rejected the August election results. The Russian-backed Lukashenko regime has violently cracked down on protesters, detaining and beating hundreds of demonstrators. Britain and Canada have already announced sanctions and EU leaders broke a diplomatic deadlock just this week to impose sanctions on 40 officials accused of rigging August’s presidential election. However, Lukashenko is not on the EU’s list of sanctioned individuals.
• Devastating fires at a refugee camp, Moria Camp, in Greece have displaced more than 12,000 refugees. A few European countries, such as France, Germany, and the Netherlands, have agreed to take in some of the unaccompanied minors who fled the migrant camp during the fires. Furthermore, Germany has agreed to accept 1,553 of the asylum seekers currently in Greece and says it will accept more if a regional aid effort is enacted. The incident has highlighted issues and tensions in the European Union’s approach to refugee acceptance and resettlement. 
• Leaders from Serbia and Kosovo signed an economic normalization agreement in a signing ceremony at the White House following two days of meetings mediated by Washington. The two countries have been working towards reaching a peaceful agreement for many years, but efforts had recently stalled. The announcement of the agreement was followed by news that Serbia would move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and that Kosovo has moved to normalize ties with Israel. Furthermore, the US International Development Finance Corporation opened their first overseas office in Belgrade, signaling strengthened ties between the US and Serbia

Asia, Eurasia, & the Pacific

• Last weekend, fighting erupted between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the long-disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. More than 100 people, including civilians, have been killed in the clashes which continues today. Though the region has been ruled by ethnic Armenians for the last few decades, it is internationally viewed as Azerbaijan. The conflict is also a point of contention for Russia and Turkey as Russia is an Armenian ally and Turkey backs Azerbaijan. The US, France, and European Union, among others, have called for a swift end to the violence but neither side shows signs of backing down.
• In response to a strengthening relationship between the US and Taiwan, China held a military exercise near the Taiwan Strait. News broke that the US is expected to make a $7 billion arms deal with Taiwan, which has, unsurprisingly, angered China. The Trump administration has sold roughly $15 billion in arms to the country over the last few years and recognizes Taiwan as a nation independent from China.
• Japan’s legislature has named Yoshihide Suga as the country’s new Prime Minister. Suga has been chosen as the Liberal Democratic Party’s leader in place of Shinzo Abe who resigned at the end of August due to health reasons. Suga has already formed a cabinet and promises to uphold the policies set by Abe, popularly known as Abenomics, to improve Japan’s battered economy and navigate them out of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Farmers in India are protesting the government’s passing of a controversial farm bill. The farmers, who have been protesting for nearly two weeks now, are accusing the government of getting rid of traditional wholesale markets, which ensure timely payments to producers, and putting poor farmers at risk of being shortchanged by private buyers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi insists that the new bill promotes growth by making it easier for farmers to sell their produce directly to private buyers and enter into contracts with private companies.  
• Another incident on the India-China border in the Himalayan region has heightened tensions between the two countries. China and India have each accused the other of firing shots in a clash along the border, an act that violates an agreement signed by the countries in 1996. A clash back in June that resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers brought the conflict back to the forefront. Now, officials from both countries are trying to bring tensions back down to a simmer.
• North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, apologized for his military’s killing of a South Korean fisheries official at sea. The South Korean government has called for a swift inter-Korean investigation into the incident. Though North Korea has accused South Korea of violating a demarcation line to find the official’s body, the rare apology is a sign that North Korea intends on keeping an open line of communication with South Korea and that they may be open to improving relations.  
• Anti-government protests have sprung up in Thailand. Protesters, mostly made up of Thailand’s youth, are calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s government and major reforms to the country’s monarchy. Under current Thai laws, criticizing the monarchy is punishable by long prison sentences. However, this has not stifled the movement which appears to be gaining momentum.  

Latin America & the Caribbean

• Protests have erupted in Colombia over policy brutality and the country’s evolving economic crisis. Demonstrations began after a man died in police custody. At least thirteen people were killed, and hundreds wounded during the clashes between law enforcement and protesters. While Colombia’s President Ivan Duque criticized the killings of protesters, he backed the police which further angered protesters. New demonstrations against not only police brutality, but also war and economic crisis, have emerged in recent days.
• Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, also known as AMLO, has asked the country’s senate to trigger a national referendum on whether five former presidents accused of corruption and allowing massive theft of public resources should be investigated and potentially prosecuted by national authorities. Two of the ex-presidents, Enrique Peña Nieto and Felipe Calderón, have denied any wrongdoing.
• Peruvian President Martín Vizcarra survived an impeachment vote after being accused of “moral incapacity” for trying to obstruct an investigation of ties to a singer who received government contracts. Opposition leaders were unable to collect enough support to oust the leader. The political feud, which will likely extend beyond the impeachment trial, has brought the attention off of the Covid-19 pandemic and the country’s economic crisis.
• EU officials met with the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and with Juan Guaido, who is viewed by over 50 countries  as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. The meeting was held primarily to discuss the country’s upcoming controversial legislative elections. The US has accused the bloc of undermining its efforts to isolate the Maduro regime, highlighting the growing divide between the US and EU on the issue.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• In September, Mali made big steps towards resolving its political crisis by appointing an interim president and selecting a civilian prime minister. Mali’s military junta has chosen former Defense Minister Ba N’Daou to be the country’s interim president and N’Daou has appointed former Foreign Minister Moctar Ouane to be prime minister. The selection of a civilian prime minister was a key requirement for the lifting of post-coup sanctions on Mali by the Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS), the group that has been mediating the crisis.
• Economic data from South Africa reveals the country’s gross domestic product shrank an annualized 51 percent in the second quarter. The unprecedented decline comes as the coronavirus takes a massive toll on the continent’s most industrialized nation. South Africa imposed one of the most stringent lockdowns back in March, causing nearly all economic activity to cease.
• The US has temporarily suspended aid to Ethiopia over the Nile River Dam dispute. According to the US State Department, not enough progress has been made in the country’s talks with Egypt and Sudan over the disputed dam project. The suspension reflects the concerns over Ethiopia’s unilateral decision to fill the dam before an agreement and safety measures were in place.
• A UN commission has accused several South Sudanese officials of embezzling $36 million over the last four years. The accusations center around illegal financial movements from the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and from the National Revenue Authority. Years of conflict and corruption have stymied South Sudan’s crude oil production which is the government’s primary revenue source.

Suggested Reading

The Great Unequalizer

Mohamed A. El-Erian and Michael Spence, Foreign Affairs

Eruption of Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh

Carey Cavanaugh, Council on Foreign Relations

IMF calls for urgent action to prevent debt crisis in emerging economies

Colby Smith, Financial Times