The United States (US) Congress passed the largest economic relief package in US history in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The deal includes $300 billion allocated for cash payments to individuals, over $350 billion in loans for small businesses, and over $150 billion for hospitals and other public services, among other efforts. The announcement of the relief package gave a boost to US markets after several weeks of decline, though the economy has yet to face all of the consequences from the pandemic.
The number of Covid-19 cases in the US has surpassed those in every other country, making the US the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. The number of cases is rapidly increasing, especially in major cities such as New York City which has nearly half of the nationally reported cases. The US government has banned gatherings of more than 10 people, per recommendations by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and a growing number of states are instituting “stay at home, stay safe” mandates. Amid nationwide business closures, a record-breaking 3.28 million workers have applied for unemployment benefits.
On March 11th the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a bear market for the first time in 11 years, falling from the all-time high of 29,551.42 reached on February 12th to under 19,000 in a matter of weeks. The fall into bear territory occurred right after the World Health Organization declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic. Many companies have lost anywhere from 20-65% of their value since the beginning of the year due to the coronavirus crisis and what some call irrational market behavior. US stocks are expected to report the biggest quarterly drop since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Oil prices have plunged since the start of March after OPEC has failed to strike a deal with its allies regarding oil production cuts. Saudi Arabia and Russia are the primary players at odds and have sparked an all-out price war. The price war could not come at a worse time as global markets have spiraled in reaction to the coronavirus pandemic and demand for oil has fallen as businesses close and citizens are forced to stay at home. To put things into perspective, the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has fallen to $20 from $63 since the start of the year, which is over a 65% drop.
The US Federal Reserve is making aggressive efforts to combat the coronavirus. The central bank has unveiled a series of market intervention measures including purchasing unlimited amounts of government debt, and introducing new lending facilities to prevent a solvency crisis.
Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to win the race for Democratic nominee. He has surged past Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic polls after a slow start on the campaign trail. In the most recent national polls, Biden leads President Donald Trump despite a slight increase in the President’s approval ratings as the White House confronts the Covid-19 outbreak.
The US conducted retaliatory strikes against five sites in Iraq controlled by the Iran-backed Kata’ib Hezbollah militant group. Hezbollah was responsible for an attack which killed two Americans and a British soldier. Iraq’s military condemned the US strikes, further highlighting the tension between the US and Iraqi governments. This is the first attack the US has made on an Iranian proxy since the US killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January, an event that radically escalated tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq.
Europe
The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced an $800 billion bond-buying program in order to support the euro during the coronavirus pandemic. The ECB has also expanded the pool of assets it can buy and has gotten rid of its policy of owning no more than 33% of eurozone member’s debt causing bonds in Italy, Greece, and Portugal to rally. So far, the ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, has had a much more modest approach compared to her US counterpart, Jerome Powell.
Italy, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, and Belgium have employed nationwide lockdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic. All non-essential businesses are closed but pharmacies, grocery stores, banks, and post offices are allowed to remain open. Citizens face steep fines if they leave their homes without the proper paperwork explaining the reason for their outing. Other European countries have imposed severe restrictions on travel, public gatherings, and have many businesses but have stopped short of nationwide lockdowns. As of March 31st, the cumulative number of coronavirus cases in Europe was over 415,000.
The European Union (EU) has taken emergency steps to seal the Greek border after Turkey refused to stop migrant flow into Europe. Previously, Turkey and the EU had an agreement in which Turkey prevented migrants from entering the EU in exchange for financial support. After an escalation of violence in Syria, causing millions of Syrians to flee their country, Turkey has abandoned this agreement.
Trade negotiations between the United Kingdom (UK) and EU have been postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Postponement aside, little progress seems to have been made so far. After the first round of trade talks, negotiators from both sides reported there was serious divergence on issues like the degree of the UK’s compliance with EU rules, the enforcement of a future trade deal, and the role of the European Court of Justice, among other things.
Russia’s parliament passed a constitutional reform which allows President Vladimir Putin to run for two more presidential terms, giving him the chance to extend his twenty-year reign to 2036. Putin says this move will “guarantee” the stable development of Russia.
Kosovo’s government collapsed after a group of the ruling coalition sided with the opposition in a no-confidence vote, a vote that was encouraged by the US after Prime Minister Albin Kurti opposed a US peace deal in the region. France and Germany have condemned the US’ efforts to bring down Kosovo’s government in the midst of a global pandemic.
Asia-Pacific
Last week, India began a 21-day national lockdown. The lockdown affects India’s entire population of 1.3 billion people, making this lockdown the largest in the world. This step has caused India’s largest mass movement of people in history as many citizens leave cities to return to home to rural villages. The lockdown has also broken up India’s longest-standing protest against a controversial citizenship act which had been holding strong for the last few months.
As tensions between the US and China escalate, China expelled journalists working for three major US newspapers: The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. China’s move comes a few weeks after US President Trump limited the number of Chinese citizens who can work in the US for five state-run Chinese news organizations. The two countries have engaged in tit-for-tat jabs after blaming each other for the coronavirus outbreak.
The Chinese economy has suffered a dramatic breakdown in January and February according to recently reported data. According to data released by Chinese authorities, industrial production plunged 13.5% due to the widespread shutdown of manufacturing operations, retail sales fell 20.5%, and fixed asset investment dropped 24.5%. These are the first declines on record for the respective sectors, all of which are important drivers of the Chinese economy. The economic figures released in mid-March have caused analysts to downgrade their outlook for the Chinese economy. Many are predicting a historic contraction in the first quarter.
North Korea has been conducting various military exercises over the last month including launching three projectiles into the Sea of Japan. Most recently, the country test-fired a rocket system, heeding all calls for denuclearization and refusing further dialogue with any of its neighbors.
The International Olympic Committee has postponed the Tokyo 2020 Olympics due to concerns around the coronavirus pandemic. The games have been rescheduled for next summer. The announcement follows the cancellation/postponement of many other major sporting events including the NCAA March Madness tournament, Wimbledon, and the Kentucky Derby among many others.
Former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad, resigned at the end of February, sending the country into a political crisis. Muhyiddin Yassin, the minister of home affairs under Mahathir, was sworn in as Prime Minister days after. After Mahathir’s resignation, Muhyiddin pulled his party out of the ruling coalition which resulting in the collapse of the government.