Important issues to watch around the globe:

United States – North Korea summit

Arguably the most important geopolitical news of this month is the possibility of a summit between the US and North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has announced that he will no longer test nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Importantly, the regime has not agreed to abandon its nuclear programs; President Trump intends to tell the North Korean leader that he must take steps to get rid of the program for sanctions to be lifted. Kim has made improving the economy one of his priorities, and sanctions and virtually no access to the international economy have taken their toll. Nevertheless, Kim is unlikely to dismantle his nuclear weapons program entirely. The outcome of this summit will also depend on regional players. Kim meets with South Korean President Moon this Thursday to negotiate an official end to the Korean War. Both the negotiations with South Korea and a meeting with the US President give North Korea some legitimacy. If the outcome of the negotiations depends entirely on denuclearization, then success is unlikely. However, if the negotiations can serve as a step towards a realistic and long-term solution to the US-North Korean relationship, then there could be hope. We must also carefully watch China’s position and involvement in this summit.

Europe’s far right revitalized after elections in Hungary 

Elections in Hungary this month illustrated that populism and far-right policies continue to gain support in Central Europe. Viktor Orban, leader of the Fidesz party, won a landslide victory. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe criticized the election campaign, citing media bias and intimidation. The election presents another challenge to an increasingly globalized economy and immigration. Orban has spoken harshly about immigrants and attempted to restrict the number of refugees and asylum seekers coming into Hungary. The rise in nationalist leadership on the continent poses yet another challenge to the EU. Are we about to witness a rising of populism in Latin America besides Europe and the US?

What’s happening in Syria? 

The US, France, and the UK launched joint airstrikes in response to a suspected chemical attack by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the town of Douma. The airstrikes targeted a scientific research facility in Damascus potentially connected to the production of chemical and biological weapons, a chemical weapons storage facility, and a chemical weapons equipment storage site. The response was greater than any other during the Syrian Civil War and came shortly after the US President said that he wanted an immediate withdrawal of troops from Syria. President Trump has made it clear that if the Assad regime turns to chemical weapons again, strikes will continue. In a joint statement with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, President Trump offered an unclear answer on whether the US would be withdrawing from Syria, stating concerns about Iran’s access to the Mediterranean. Though airstrikes sent a signal to Assad, it does not look as though there is a clear end in sight to the conflict in Syria and if anything, it remains a potential arena for a more intense, regional conflict.

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