Here are some critical issues to watch around the globe over the coming month:

North America

Trade talks between the US and China have resumed this week in Shanghai. The expectations for this round of negotiations are low as the 2020 US elections loom in the near future. President Trump and his administration are focused on preventing a breakdown in talks while China may decide to wait out for the elections. Since last month, China has agreed to buy more US agriculture products and the US has eased up on restrictions against Huawei.

The US has banned Turkey from participating in the F-35 fighter jet program after Turkey decided to go through with the purchase of a Russian S-400 defense system. The Turkish government has asked the White House to reverse their decision in the “spirit of alliance”, calling them to “come back from this mistake that will cause irreparable damage to our strategic ties.”

The House of Representatives passed a 2-year debt ceiling and a budget deal that raises spending by $320 billion and allows the government to keep borrowing. If the deal is passed by the Senate, a potential debt default could be avoided, allowing the next budget showdown to be pushed to after the 2020 elections.

Puerto Rico’s Governor, Ricardo Rosello, has stepped down following mass protests calling for his resignation. Protests sprang up after chat transcripts between Rosello and other officials, viewed as having sexist and homophobic content, were released to the public.

Robert Mueller’s congressional testimony and a report released by the Senate Intelligence Committee both warn of Russian interference in the 2020 elections. There is evidence to suggest that Russia targeted electoral infrastructure in all 50 states during the 2016 presidential elections and that US electoral systems remain vulnerable.

The Federal Reserve announced the first interest rate cut since the 2008 financial crisis. The quarter-point move has been made to protect the US economy against harmful effects from growth slowdowns in China and Europe and uncertainty from the US-China trade war.

Europe

The European Parliament finally decided on who will be their next leader. Ursula von der Leyen, former defense minister of Germany, was elected the new president of the European Commission. Since becoming president, she has vowed to create a European investment bank for sustainable energy and to increase the EU’s border force, among other projects.

Former London mayor Boris Johnson was elected the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. As part of his campaign, he has pledged to leave the European Union by October regardless of whether or not an exit deal has been finalized by the bloc.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis was sworn in as Greece’s Prime Minister after snap elections held in early July. Mitsotakis election brings the center-right back into power and pushes out the former leftwing Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras.

UK foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt has proposed the creation of a European-led coalition to ensure safe navigation for commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This proposal comes after several incidents in the strait, including Iran’s seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker.

Britain and France agreed to send more troops into Syria. This decision was made to backfill the withdrawal of US troops. The two countries committed to a marginal increase of 10-15% in exchange for US payment. In December of 2018, President Trump announced the US would completely withdraw from Syria, but there still remains a small US footprint in the country.

Asia-Pacific

Protests persist in Hong Kong despite Chief Executive Carrie Lam declaring the controversial extradition bill “dead”. The protests have grown increasingly violent as clashes between police and protestors have intensified. Most recently, 44 people have been charged with “rioting” and Beijing has spoken out about the protests stating they will not accept any challenge to the central government’s authority.

Japanese and South Korean officials met this week in an attempt to quell a trade dispute between the two countries. The dispute began in early July after Japan put export controls on South Korean chemical materials used for high-tech products. The dispute also has ties to a reoccurring historical issue between the two countries regarding the compensation of forced laborers.

The US State Department has approved a $2.2 billion arms sale to Taiwan. In response, China’s Foreign Ministry announced it would cut ties with any US firms selling arms to Taiwan. China claims this arms deal is in violation of international law and that it harms their national security and sovereignty.

China’s economic growth rate has fallen to its slowest rate since 1992. The economy only grew at a 6.2% rate in the second quarter. The slowdown is due in part to the consequences of the country’s ongoing trade war with the US. Overall, China’s real GDP growth rate has been slowly declining over the last decade.

According to South Korean officials, North Korea has fired several missiles off its east coast in the last few days. The South Korean Defense Ministry said the missiles appear to be new. These tests are the first to occur since US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un agreed to resume denuclearization talks. North Korean state media said the missile tests are a warning over planned US-South Korea military exercises.

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