At the Intersection of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics

North America

• US President Joe Biden unveiled a $1.85 trillion economic and environmental spending package last week, hoping to rally support from holdout Democrats hours before he left for Europe to attend the G-20 Summit and UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). The revised proposal is about half the cost of his original plan, but it still seeks to achieve a transformative agenda. On Thursday, the president implored lawmakers for a decision on the bill which has been wrapped up in negotiations for months: “The House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week.”
• After failing to win a majority in the House of Commons in a snap election last month, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau unveiled his third cabinet since first assuming office in 2015. In an attempt to improve his government’s environmental record and stave off political challenges from other parties, Prime Minister Trudeau replaced the environment and defense ministers.
• Discussions are underway between US and Mexican officials to overhaul the security cooperation agreement between the two countries, named the Merida Initiative. The initiative, signed 13 years ago to launch a “war on drugs”, has fallen short, failing to curb drug trafficking and violence. Homicide rates in Mexico remain at historically high levels and deaths in the US from fentanyl smuggled across the border have skyrocketed. Country leaders aim to reach a reformed and comprehensive security cooperation agreement in the coming months.
• Demonstrating the US’ commitment to the South American region, Secretary of State Antony Blinked visited Ecuador and Colombia in October. During a speech, Blinken said the Americas were undergoing a “democratic reckoning” and voiced the US’ desire to be an ally in showing that democracies can deliver social well-being. While visiting, Blinken discussed major policy issues, such as migration and the pandemic recovery, with Ecuadoran and Colombian leaders.

Europe

• At the G-20 Summit this weekend, U.S. President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a deal to roll back tariffs on billions of dollars of European steel and aluminum. The tariffs were imposed during the Donald Trump administration, straining the trans-Atlantic relationship. In return, the European Union (EU) will lift retaliatory tariffs on American goods and will not move forward with a new wave of tariffs that was originally planned for December 1st.
• Early last month, Poland’s top court ruled that domestic law trumps EU law, escalating long-building tensions between Poland and the EU over judicial independence. The topic was center stage at the EU summit just a few weeks ago where European leaders warned Poland that they were prepared to deploy further legal sanctions against Warsaw in response to its defiance of EU law. Just last week, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ordered Poland to pay a fine of $1.2 million per day for failing to comply with a July order to suspend a controversial disciplinary mechanism for judges. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the mechanism would be abolished.
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced a $35 billion plan to re- industrialize France by 2030, saying France needs “to become a nation of innovation and research again.” Through this plan to boost industry, the country will invest in “disruptive innovations” in several sectors including atomic power, food production, gene technology, robotics, and digital technologies, among others. The “France 2030” plan will also seek to transform France into a global leader in green hydrogen.
• Russia suspended diplomatic ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) just a couple of weeks after NATO reduced the size of the Russian representative office and ordered eight Russian diplomats to leave Belgium by November 1st, saying they were undeclared intelligence officers. In response NATO declared, “NATO’s policy toward Russia remains consistent. We have strengthened our deterrence and defense in response to Russia’s aggressive actions, while at the same time we remain open to dialogue.”

Asia, Eurasia, and the Pacific

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has backed down from his previous threat to expel 10 Western ambassadors after the 10 embassies involved issued identical statements confirming their compliance with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. His threat had been aimed at the diplomats after they urged the Turkish government to abide by a European Court of Human Rights ruling and release the philanthropist Osman Kavala who had been detained since 2017 despite not having been convicted of a crime. In a jointly signed statement, the ambassadors from Germany, France, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States said the irregularities in Kavala’s case “cast a shadow over respect for democracy, the rule of law and transparency in the Turkish judiciary system” which President Erdogan took as a threat to Turkish sovereignty.
• The ruling party of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was strengthened by its election win on Sunday. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held onto its single-party majority, defying election predictions and allowing Prime Minister Kishida, who has only been in office for one month, to make his mark on the government’s policies. Recovery from the pandemic and green energy will be at the top of the prime minister’s agenda. He has pledged to work for an extra budget by the end of the year and compile a “large-scale” stimulus package around mid-November.
• A new round of border talks between China and India failed to produce results. While many hoped the fresh round of negotiations would result in troop withdrawals from their disputed border, troops from both countries will remain deployed in the area for a second winter in a row. In a statement, India’s defense ministry said the Chinese side was “not agreeable” and “could not provide any forward-looking proposals” while a Chinese military spokesperson said, “the Indian side sticks to unreasonable and unrealistic demands, adding difficulties to the negotiations.” While the most recent standoff began in May of last year, the two countries have disputed their shared border for decades. They even went to war over the border in 1962. Since then, many issues have yet to be resolved.
• Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) held a virtual summit last month without Myanmar. ASEAN leaders decided not to invite a representative from Myanmar’s ruling military junta after the junta ignored a roadmap for peace it agreed to with ASEAN six months ago. While Myanmar remains a member of the bloc, an official ASEAN statement lamented the political impasse and said that the country “needs both time and political space to deal with its many and complex challenges.” At the summit, the group re-affirmed its commitment to support Myanmar “in accordance with the will of the people of Myanmar.”

Middle East

• Iran has agreed to return to nuclear talks in November, ending a five-month hiatus in negotiations. To restore the 2015 nuclear agreement between the US, Iran, and several European allies, Iran would need to eliminate most of its growing stockpile of nuclear fuel and stop its work on nuclear technologies that could be used to produce a nuclear weapon. On the other hand, Iran has demanded that the US remove the sweeping sanctions the Trump administration imposed on the country when it withdrew the US from the deal. US and European officials are cautious about the prospects of reaching an agreement with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s hardline government.
• Chinese and Taliban officials met in Doha last month for their first high-level meetings since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in September. At the meeting, China pledged to help rebuild Afghanistan and called for an end to US sanctions on the country. The Taliban also attended a summit hosted by Russia to discuss terrorism and aid to Afghanistan with regional partners, China, India, Iran, and Pakistan.
• Iraq and Saudi Arabia are reportedly finalizing multi-billion dollar deals in energy, petrochemicals, and water. The two countries – OPEC’s two biggest producers – began restoring relations in 2016 with US assistance to counter Iran’s growing influence in the region. Since then, relations between the Iraq and Saudi Arabia have been warming up. The countries have signed numerous agreements on politics, security, and commerce and have even opened a major border crossing. The new investment deals on energy, petrochemicals, and water could be a major boost for Iraq’s development and an opportunity for it to become less dependent on Iranian energy imports.
• Eleven weeks after Tunisian President Kais Saied got rid of the prime minister, suspended parliament, and granted himself judicial powers in what his opponents are calling a coup, he has approved a new government selected by newly appointed Prime Minister Najla Bouden Romdhane. President Said was facing international pressure to appoint a new government after weeks of making unilateral decisions which he defended as necessary to save Tunisia from “imminent peril”. Even still, President Said has significantly limited the powers of the prime minister and will technically lead the administration himself. Thousands of Tunisians continue to protest against the president.

Latin America and the Caribbean 

• Brazil’s central bank carried out its largest rate hike in two decades, raising interest rates 150 basis points to 7.75%. The country is struggling to control surging inflation as its pandemic recovery has been hampered by soaring prices. The annual inflation rate reported last month was 10.25%, which is several percentage points higher than its 5.25% target ceiling. 
• The Senate committee investigating the Brazilian government’s mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic voted to approve a report that calls for criminal charges against President Jair Bolsonaro and dozens of others, including administration officials. The charges recommended against Bolsonaro by the report range from inciting crime and the misuse of public funds to “crime of responsibility” which is grounds for impeachment. President Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing.
• Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has suspended talks with the opposition alliance after a close ally, Colombian businessman Alex Saab, was extradited from Cape Verde to the US on money laundering charges. Norway-sponsored negotiations designed to ease Venezuela’s political and humanitarian crises were being held in Mexico. The talks came to an abrupt end when the Maduro government walked out and also revoked the house arrest of six former executives of a US subsidiary of the country’s state oil company, moving them to prison instead. The Venezuelan opposition alliance and Norwegian government are urging the Maduro government to return to the negotiating table.
• Peru’s government reached an agreement with protesters who were blockading a key mining corridor used by Las Bambas mine. Protesters were blocking the corridor for three weeks, almost causing the copper mine to suspend production.  The agreement, brokered by President Pedro Castillo’s government, between MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas mine and the local Chumbivilcas community seeks to avoid future conflicts that have hampered the mine for years. As part of the deal, Las Bambas will look to hire Chumbivilcas residents. The Las Bambas standoff was one of the first major tests of the Castillo administration’s mining sector reforms which seek to redistribute profits to indigenous communities.

Sub-Saharan Africa

• On October 25^th, Sudan’s military overthrew Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and his civilian-led government. Politicians, former rebel groups, and the removed prime minister are now negotiating with coup leader, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al Burhan, for a power-sharing deal. The US, World Bank, and other international actors have condemned the coup, cutting aid to the country to pressure the military into releasing Prime Minister Hamdok and other government officials. Thousands of Sudanese citizens have been out in the streets protesting every day since the coup, demanding a return to civilian rule. Clashes between security forced and protesters have reportedly resulted in several deaths.  
• The two largest rebel groups fighting Ethiopia’s government have joined together on a front line about 230 miles north of the country’s capital, according to their spokesmen, who also said a peaceful solution to the conflict was now off the table. On Tuesday, the government declared a six-month state of emergency as threats of a wider civil war have escalated. Opposition forces from the Tigray region, where the conflict broke out nearly a year ago, and the Oromo Liberation Army claim to have seized key strategic towns on the highway to the capital, Addis Abba. On Tuesday, US President Biden announced Ethiopia would lose duty-free access to US markets, citing “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.” Humanitarian agencies are warning of a large-scale famine in Tigray and human rights groups continue reporting human rights atrocities by all sides in the conflict – the Ethiopian military, the Eritrean military, and Tigrayan, Amhara, and Oromo militias.
• Somali President Mohamed Farmaajo struck a deal with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble to speed up the delayed election process, ending their feud which threatened to derail the country. In early September, President Farmaajo suspended Prime Minister Roble’s executive powers after several disagreements over top security appointments and dismissals. Elections for the lower and upper houses of parliament are now ongoing.
• Southern African nations have deployed envoys to Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, to try to quell unrest after a recent wave of pro-democracy protests saw at least one killed and 80 people wounded by security forces. In response to the unrest, the kingdom deployed armed forces and shut down internet access as images of violence and increased calls for demonstrations began circulating on social media. The Southern African Development Committee (SADC) sent high-level envoys to the country to meet with Eswatini’s King Mswati III to discuss the unraveling political and security situation in the country.

World

• The latest round of United Nations climate talks, the 26^th Conference of the Parties (COP26), began in Glasgow on Sunday. Two days of speeches from world leaders kicked off the summit. So far, G-20 countries have committed to stop financing coal-fired power plants by the end of this year, about 80 countries have joined a US-EU led pledge to cut global methane emissions by 30% by 2030, and leaders of more than 100 countries set a joint target to end deforestation by 2030. Another highlight of the conference so far has been India’s pledge to reach net-zero emissions by 2070, which is the country’s first pledge of its kind. Discussions at the summit over the next two weeks will set the stage for climate finance for developing countries, international carbon markets, net-zero emissions targets, and other climate policy as global leaders attempt to prevent the world from warming more than 1.5°C. Recent climate reports warn that significant action must be taken to reach such a goal, if it is at all possible to achieve.

Suggested Reading

What is happening at COP26?

The Economist

COP26: where does all the climate finance money go?

Leslie Hook and Joanna S. Kao, Financial Times

One Year On, Ethiopia’s Tigray Conflict No Closer to Political Solution

Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations

The Stubborn Persistence of Vaccine Inequity

Darren Walker, Foreign Affairs