In this commentary, and in future postings, neither do we intend to outline all possible scenarios regarding the unfolding of geopolitical and geoeconomic events, nor do we suggest that the […]

In our commentary dated February 10th (http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/3375) we outlined the significance of collateral velocity and the inherent dangers of another crisis given that the main culprit (derivatives) of the 2008 […]

Historically, the inversion of the yield curve is a good predictor of recessions. On top of this when spreads of high yield bonds reach the current level of 850 bps […]

Modern finance depends on credit. Credit creation depends on inter-bank trust. Inter-bank trust depends on asset valuation. Asset valuation is an opaque process that is a function of several parameters […]

It takes some time for the market to comprehend when stress is built up in the economic and financial systems. This is part of the hysteresis reality. When financial stress […]

Following the successful Normandy invasion in June 1944, the Allies executed that September the military operation known as Market Garden (Market referred to the airborne forces that were supposed to […]

We are crossing correction territory (a drop of more than 10%) for some equity markets in developed countries around the world. This has brought questions about the possibility of a […]

Yesterday, the South African Rand lost 10% of its value. The South African economy is viewed as unstable due to its domestic politics (the President changed the Minister of Finance […]

Rising geopolitical tensions during the first couple of days in the New Year may bring a rising risk premium. At the same time, China’s market turmoil (due to slowing manufacturing […]

I boarded the non-stop flight from Cincinnati to Paris. Walking down the plane’s aisle I discovered a special area can accommodate round-the-table discussions, just as in previous years. To my […]