Commentaries

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: April 7, 2016 |

WWW: Wrong Tools, Wrong Targets, Wrong Diagnoses

The world economy may be entering into treacherous territory. Central Banks and policy makers seem to have misdiagnosed the credit problems and applied the wrong medication. We are referring of […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: March 23, 2016 |

The Plumbing of the Financial System: Debt Markets and Structured Products

Over the course of the last few months official foreign accounts have been selling US Treasuries. At the same time, the US Fed has been selling Treasuries to its primary […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: March 16, 2016 |

Financial Conditions and Helicopter Money: Generational Public Ethos and Norms Greet Mr. Market

We are experiencing a transformational change from post-modernity to meta-modernity. As that transformation takes place public philosophy, customs, policies and norms also change. The metamorphosis which is now at works […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: March 10, 2016 |

Counterparty Risks and the Gathering Storm: Inadequate Solutions and Absurd Voices

In a recent commentary we pointed out that one of the largest clearing houses asked for a $50 billion capital contribution from member institutions, (see https://blacksummitfg.com/3375 ). We have also […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: March 3, 2016 |

Rendezvous with the Future: Looking Forward Through the Lenses of the Past Quarter Century

In this commentary, and in future postings, neither do we intend to outline all possible scenarios regarding the unfolding of geopolitical and geoeconomic events, nor do we suggest that the […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: February 23, 2016 |

Systemic Risks and Collateral Velocity, Part II: Credit Bottlenecks and Market Tremors

In our commentary dated February 10th (http://stage.blacksummitfg.com/3375) we outlined the significance of collateral velocity and the inherent dangers of another crisis given that the main culprit (derivatives) of the 2008 […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: February 17, 2016 |

The Flattening of the Yield Curve and the Migration of Risks: The Path of Hedging Holdings and a Contrarian View on Market Trajectory

Historically, the inversion of the yield curve is a good predictor of recessions. On top of this when spreads of high yield bonds reach the current level of 850 bps […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: February 9, 2016 |

The Banking Sector, Collateral Velocity, and Credit Creation, Part I: Where are we Headed?

Modern finance depends on credit. Credit creation depends on inter-bank trust. Inter-bank trust depends on asset valuation. Asset valuation is an opaque process that is a function of several parameters […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: February 2, 2016 |

Market Hysteresis and Capitulation: Financial Stress and Secular Trends

It takes some time for the market to comprehend when stress is built up in the economic and financial systems. This is part of the hysteresis reality. When financial stress […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: January 25, 2016 |

Operation Market Garden: Can it Happen Again? (This time in the financial world)

Following the successful Normandy invasion in June 1944, the Allies executed that September the military operation known as Market Garden (Market referred to the airborne forces that were supposed to […]