Commentaries

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 18, 2016 |

Reconciling Market Signals

In last week’s commentary we pointed out that the accumulation of debt by corporations may be behind the market upswing (through shares buyback programs while the fundamentals do not support […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 12, 2016 |

Credit Markets and the Financial Bloodline: The Oxymoron of an Upswing

Corporate debt is at record high. Net equity issuance has been negative for the last few years. The shares buyback pattern is simply staggering. The fact that almost 70% of […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 4, 2016 |

Dancing Around the Banquet of Stagnation: Seeking Market Catalysts

The extraordinary global increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio requires a growth rate of at least 4% in order for the debt to be sustainable. The unfortunate thing is that such […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 20, 2016 |

From the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis to the Turkey’s 2016 Failed Coup: Geopolitics and a Series of Dreams

Somewhere in the middle of the Pacific last weekend over dinner with Bob Zimmerman the lyrics of his song “A Series of Dreams” echoed in my ears. The attempted coup […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 14, 2016 |

Markets’ Disconnect, Political Pandering, and Business Climate: Valuations at the Dawn of Major Chinese Refinancing Needs

It seems that the bond and equities markets are telling us two different stories. The former with the declining – and in some major cases negative – yields is like […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 7, 2016 |

Déjà vu all over again? Slouching Towards Regime Uncertainty

It is the argument of this commentary that following the Brexit vote we may be entering into a period of regime uncertainty. By the latter we mean political, economic, and […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: June 29, 2016 |

An Illusion of Value: Zirflation and Nirflation in a Market that is Overfed but Still Malnourished

The Brexit vote (for which we reserve some doubts that it is ever completed) generated some panic selling, sending investors to the refuge of safe havens. Hence, government bonds experienced […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: June 23, 2016 |

Brexit, Delusions, Fiat Money, and Economic Prospects: Historical Reflections

“A greater Quantity [of money] employs more People than a lesser Quantity”, said John Law in 1705 in his pamphlet titled “Money and Trade Considered, with a Proposal for Supplying […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: June 14, 2016 |

Negative Rates and their Effects on the Equities and Bond Markets: Bifurcation Meets Bewilderment in Historical Perspective

Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) started buying corporate bonds. Over the course of the last four year the ECB has committed to “do whatever it takes” to save […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: June 1, 2016 |

The Fizzling Out of Productivity Growth Rate: Examining the Credit Velocity Link

Productivity growth in the US will decline for the first time in over thirty years, raising the obvious question: How about all those magnificent innovations that constantly change our lives […]