Commentaries

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 16, 2018 |

Ozymandias and our Great Circus: Ironies, Myths, and Realities

Percy Shelley’s poem titled “Ozymandias” is a sonnet, just a fourteen-line verse form that Petrarch, Spencer, and Shakespeare used during the Renaissance. Following Petrarch’s style, Shelley introduces an octave in […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 11, 2018 |

Trying to Make Sense of Recent Market Movements

Yesterday’s drop of more than 3% in equities generated concerns about experiencing a correction similar to the one that we saw earlier this year. The fact is that the market […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 3, 2018 |

Towards a Policy of Rate Neutrality: Implications for Asset Allocation

Since December 2015 the Fed has raised short-term interest rates eight times (from 0-0.25% where it stood in December 2015) to the current level of 2-2.25%. Analysts anticipate that the […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: September 19, 2018 |

Monetary Policy, Currency Misalignments, and Markets’ Memory: Pausing the Hiking of Rates

Inflows to emerging markets dropped by over 65% between July and August of this year. A strengthening American economy and the growing trade tensions have created a rout in emerging […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: September 5, 2018 |

The Spider of Currencies and Trade: Monolithic Tribalism

Over the course of the next few months, problems in emerging markets may intensify. Here is a list of the primary candidates: Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, and China. We certainly do […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 22, 2018 |

Equities and Earnings Trajectory: What Have We Learned From the Q2 Reports?

With very little doubt the good earnings growth has uplifted and sustained stocks to high levels. At the same time, good economic growth has uplifted consumer and business confidence levels […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 16, 2018 |

Dollar Shortage, Contagion Fears, and Currencies’ Tremors

Over the course of the last few days, emerging markets currencies have been experiencing tremors due to contagion fears originating in the Turkish lira. As the first graph below shows, […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: August 1, 2018 |

Historical Incidents and Fallacies: Market Assessment Within the Underlying Currents

Warning: This is not a commentary about warnings. Forecast: Why should anyone desire to be proven wrong? Market Indexes: Distorted and inadequate to capture market movements let alone the undercurrent […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 12, 2018 |

Trade Disputes, Emerging Markets, and Supply Chains: Rising Tensions and Conflict Inflation

Emerging and developed markets depend to some extent on a China-centric supply chain. As trade tensions between the US and China (as well as between the US and the EU) […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: July 5, 2018 |

Global Synchronized Growth? Credit Markets and Earnings Potential

With little doubt, emerging markets have entered into bear territory with the Chinese index down more than 20% since January. This is happening at a time when central banks are […]