Commentaries

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: December 5, 2019 |

The Monetary Policy Challenge – Center for Financial Stability

Jacques de Larosière from the Center for Financial Stability (CFS) shares his latest thinking on inflation targets and the unintended consequences from excessively accommodative monetary policy. “This challenge could be […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: November 26, 2019 |

A Bifurcated Reality: At a Hinge of Historical Changes

We are at the hinge of a new era where we are supposed to choose between a reality of tyranny and illiberalism dominated by kleptocrats, and an age of democratic […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: November 20, 2019 |

Could Political Fragmentation Lead to an Economic & Financial Segmentation? What Could the Consequences Be?

Septimius Severus founded the Roman dynasty that carried his name in the year A.D. 193. That year is known as the “year of the five emperors.”  The year began after […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: November 14, 2019 |

The Circus and the Dreams: Paint it Black

Immanuel Kant’s definition of our modern era and of the Age of Enlightenment was that “Enlightenment is man’s emergence from his self-incurred immaturity…The motto of Enlightenment is therefore: Sapere Aude! […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: November 6, 2019 |

Historical Anachronisms and Fallacies: The Vengeance of Complacency

First of all, allow us to start with some clarifications/definitions: Heraclitus Fallacy: The belief that history imposes no constraints. Failing to comprehend the past not only signifies ignorance, but is […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 23, 2019 |

Shifting Risks and Unintended Consequences for Portfolios: We Live in a Zero-Sum World

We are now under the auspices of a zero-sum game world due to negligible productivity growth rate. Such a shift can be seen as a symptom of trade wars. We […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 16, 2019 |

Deteriorating Economic Sentiment: Down the Path of Guicciardini’s Maxims

Yesterday the IMF downgraded its projections for economic growth. In its announcement it warned that such action is the result of self-inflicted wounds created by a “precarious” trade war. At […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 11, 2019 |

Weekly Market Update

Market Action Global equity markets were buoyed late in the week by hopes for a truce in the US–China trade war and optimism that a Brexit deal might be reached […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: October 8, 2019 |

False Positive Signals Meet Immanuel Kant: Recessionary Indications & Portfolio Considerations

Composite models that assess the risk of a recession in the next 12 months indicate that the probability of a recession happening in the next 12 months has fallen slightly. […]

By: John E. Charalambakis | On: September 26, 2019 |

The Mispricing of Assets, the Repricing of Expectations, and the Incineration of Reason: Investment Strategy in the Valley of the Missing Link

What do the US and UK political developments as well as the stock market valuation have to do with the Peloponnesian War fought between Athens and Sparta (431-404 BCE)? In […]