On Risks, Currencies, and Asset Classes: Mispricing, Imbalances, and Credit Extensions
As of yesterday (July 4th), it seems that the European debt crisis is entering into a new phase, with the expected new downgrades of Greek paper by the major rating agencies, which warned that “selective default” is at hand, due to the terms of the rescue package...Market Turmoil: Signs of Tremors and Nuggets of Gold
The storm we have been writing about in the last three weeks seems to be gaining speed. The Greek debt crisis can open Pandora’s box and unleash sovereign debt, banking, bond, and equities turmoil, generating the third phase of the crisis we wrote before (see e.g. the...On Glorious Co-determination: Potential Scenarios in the Midst of Debt Concerns
The war of words was in high gear this past week. German officials demanded participation of the private sector in a new Greek bailout package that is estimated to be around $130 billion, i.e. about 40% of the Greek GDP. If that happens, then Greece will have borrowed...Assessing the Risks of an Economic & Financial Storm: Implications for Portfolio Holdings
Last Wednesday the employment and production news had significant negative effects for equities. Major indexes dropped by close to 2.3%, the worst drop this year. Private sector payrolls increased insignificantly, while production slowed down significantly. These...The Chain Reaction of a Feared Credit Event: The Roots, the Symptoms of Global Contagion, and a Possible Solution
In the last several days, the markets’ focus has been back on the Euro-zone crisis. In a nutshell this is the chain reaction that the markets are afraid of: Greece experiences some sort of default, whether it is restructuring, re-profiling (extension of bonds’...Sign Up for Our Publications
