Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
July 2016 The “risky trinity” (in the words of the BIS) of (1) unusually low productivity growth, (2) historically high global debt levels and (3) remarkably narrow room for policy manoeuver explains why ultra-low interest rates, a symptom of apprehension about...Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another week of positive performance for U.S. equities comes in the midst of earnings season. So far, corporate profits have come in stronger than analyst expectations but still seem to be on track for the sixth consecutive decline. Of relief to market...From the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis to the Turkey’s 2016 Failed Coup: Geopolitics and a Series of Dreams
Somewhere in the middle of the Pacific last weekend over dinner with Bob Zimmerman the lyrics of his song “A Series of Dreams” echoed in my ears. The attempted coup in Turkey was falling apart in the midst of geopolitical uncertainties from Asia (and the pertinent...Weekly Market Update
Market Action US equities followed up on last week’s highs by resoundingly breaking out of their range bound trading zone of the past couple of years to set brand new peaks. Financials led the rally thanks to interest rates bouncing sharply off their all-time lows as...Markets’ Disconnect, Political Pandering, and Business Climate: Valuations at the Dawn of Major Chinese Refinancing Needs
It seems that the bond and equities markets are telling us two different stories. The former with the declining – and in some major cases negative – yields is like foretelling a story of slow growth, rising risks, and absence of a capital spending drive. The latter...Sign Up for Our Publications
