Credit Markets and the Financial Bloodline: The Oxymoron of an Upswing
Corporate debt is at record high. Net equity issuance has been negative for the last few years. The shares buyback pattern is simply staggering. The fact that almost 70% of corporate earnings are paid out in the form of corporate buybacks and dividends is antithetical...Dancing Around the Banquet of Stagnation: Seeking Market Catalysts
The extraordinary global increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio requires a growth rate of at least 4% in order for the debt to be sustainable. The unfortunate thing is that such growth rate looks unrealistic given today’s economic fundamentals. Moreover, the earnings...Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
July 2016 The “risky trinity” (in the words of the BIS) of (1) unusually low productivity growth, (2) historically high global debt levels and (3) remarkably narrow room for policy manoeuver explains why ultra-low interest rates, a symptom of apprehension about...Weekly Market Update
Market Action Another week of positive performance for U.S. equities comes in the midst of earnings season. So far, corporate profits have come in stronger than analyst expectations but still seem to be on track for the sixth consecutive decline. Of relief to market...From the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis to the Turkey’s 2016 Failed Coup: Geopolitics and a Series of Dreams
Somewhere in the middle of the Pacific last weekend over dinner with Bob Zimmerman the lyrics of his song “A Series of Dreams” echoed in my ears. The attempted coup in Turkey was falling apart in the midst of geopolitical uncertainties from Asia (and the pertinent...Sign Up for Our Publications
