The Powerhouse of Structural Changes: Co-integration, Co-movement, and Disintegration
By 460 CE the Roman Army was dominated by Germanic troops. By that time they had also forgotten a basic lesson that it is the army that elects the Emperor. By 475 CE, the barbarian chief Odoacer replaced the Roman emperor with himself. The citizens of Rome selected...Monthly Barometer’s Forward-Looking Monthly Review: An Interdisciplinary View of our Complex Global Economy
April 2017 The IMF global growth forecasts are on the move again, but for the first time in six years they’re on the up. They now anticipate global GDP will rise by 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2018, the same as last October’s forecast. Albeit a rather tepid...Weekly Market Update
Market Action After France’s election equity markets took off across the globe, approaching recent highs. The Euro reached a five-month high after the results of France’s election and the nation’s stock market rose over 4% on Monday’s opening trade. China’s...The Fading of Shocks and the Complacency Spirit: A Realistic Midterm/Longterm View
There is a sense of a cyclical recovery around the world. The shocks of the last 8-10 years (financial crisis, EU debt crisis, commodities downturn) seem to be fading, and in their place we observe rising expectations regarding growth. The latest IMF report on the...Weekly Market Update
Market Action French bond yields and spreads to benchmark German bonds narrowed throughout the course of the week as the nation heads to the polls. The race is a tight contest between four major candidates. Since no majority for anyone is expected, a runoff in May is...Sign Up for Our Publications
