Strategic Misconceptions and Market Expectations: The Brighter Side of a Dark Moon
In the last few days we’ve observed geopolitical events taking place from the Middle East to Eastern Europe and from Africa to Asia, shaking the markets and molding expectations. The Islamic State in the Middle East endangers not only regional stability but also...Hypnotized by Dreams of Utopian Placebos, Part II: Jackson Hole Meets the Texas Ratio
In the last commentary our thesis was that the economic landscape does not suffer from secular stagnation but rather from a complex and confused disequilibrium that diminishes expectations. Rather than focusing on the causes of this disequilibrium policymakers shift...Hypnotized by Dreams of Utopian Placebos: Subpar Performance in an Age of Diminished Expectations, Part I
We are dreaming. We desire utopias. We treat ourselves with placebo drugs and we are hypnotized by all of the above. The symptoms started in Japan in the early 1990s. It has been called Japanese malaise and it seems that is spreading. Subpar GDP growth rate, interest...The Groom Still Waiting at the Altar: The Medium-Term Brightening of the Economic Outlook
Over the course of the last few weeks equity markets has felt shocks, with the German DAX index dropping by more than 10% signifying correction territory. As we explained last week, a combination of consolidation/maturity issues (talk of mini-correction), geopolitical...Altering Expectations: Not Exactly What it Usually Means
The market turmoil last week persuaded some that a major correction is at work that will deflate the financial bubble. We would humbly disagree with that prediction. In our opinion there are five main reasons why the market blinked last week, namely: Uncertainty about...Sign Up for Our Publications
