Shifting Cycles and Portfolio Structures: Hand Me Another Brick to Build a Shelter From the Storm
As previously noted from this page, I believe that we are entering into a period where the forces of market risk, volatility, liquidity, and credit risk encompass a cycle whose velocity may change much more frequently than during any other period in financial history....Financial Distress: Infatuations and Magnificent Illusions
In his 1984 Shareholder Letter, Warren Buffett wrote: “The corpse is supposed to file the death certificate. Under this ‘honor system’ of mortality, the corpse sometimes gives itself the benefit of the doubt”. This is an example of a magnificent delusion unfortunately...The Rolling Pyramid of Historical Financial Crises and the Moral Economic Imperatives: Distinguishing Causes from Symptoms
The Rolling Pyramid of Historical Financial Crises and the Moral Economic Imperatives: Distinguishing Causes from Symptoms We have noted in past commentaries that our global financial system moves from crisis to crisis due to the lack of an anchor. In the previous...On the Disruption of the Disruptors: The Redrafting of a New Chapter in Global Developments
In the art of war (in the general spirit of geopolitical and geoeconomic diplomacy) the opponent’s greatest strength happens to be his greatest weakness. Let’s take a look at a few examples. When we think of China, we usually think of its outstanding economic growth...Spreads and the Business Cycle: Opportunities and Risks
The Fed decided earlier today to postpone the increase in short term rates citing global growth and disinflationary concerns. We believe that such concerns are overstated, at least for developed economies. We are of the opinion that if the Fed had finally started the...Sign Up for Our Publications
