The Banking Sector, Collateral Velocity, and Credit Creation, Part I: Where are we Headed?
Modern finance depends on credit. Credit creation depends on inter-bank trust. Inter-bank trust depends on asset valuation. Asset valuation is an opaque process that is a function of several parameters (economic, financial, geopolitical, strategic, among others). For...Market Hysteresis and Capitulation: Financial Stress and Secular Trends
It takes some time for the market to comprehend when stress is built up in the economic and financial systems. This is part of the hysteresis reality. When financial stress builds up for some time, a crisis ensues that is followed by a recession. The graph below from...Operation Market Garden: Can it Happen Again? (This time in the financial world)
Following the successful Normandy invasion in June 1944, the Allies executed that September the military operation known as Market Garden (Market referred to the airborne forces that were supposed to seize bridges, and Garden to ground forces). The purpose was to...Is a Secular Bear Knocking at Market’s Door? The Escalator of Spending
We are crossing correction territory (a drop of more than 10%) for some equity markets in developed countries around the world. This has brought questions about the possibility of a secular bear market (a drop of more than 20%) that will wipe out stocks. The causes...Market Sentiment and Residual Confusions: On the Finite Unpredictability of Uncertain Outcomes
Yesterday, the South African Rand lost 10% of its value. The South African economy is viewed as unstable due to its domestic politics (the President changed the Minister of Finance twice within a week) as well as its dependence on exports to China. The reality of a...Sign Up for Our Publications
