Probable Paths of Improbable Choices: Scotland, Devolutionary Forces, the EU, and Mr. Market
This Thursday (September 18th), the people of Scotland are called to choose between going alone as an independent state or staying under the umbrella of Britain and the United Kingdom. The pro-independence camp (that advocates a yes vote in the referendum) claims that...On the Infinite Appetite for Self-Destruction and the Unlimited Capacity for Trivialization
We are approaching the time when the ECB will pull the trigger and will start buying paper “assets” (i.e. someone else’s liabilities) in the ultimate hope of stimulating a paralytic EU economy that is devastated by regulations, high taxes, unsustainable debt and...Strategic Misconceptions and Market Expectations: The Brighter Side of a Dark Moon
In the last few days we’ve observed geopolitical events taking place from the Middle East to Eastern Europe and from Africa to Asia, shaking the markets and molding expectations. The Islamic State in the Middle East endangers not only regional stability but also...Hypnotized by Dreams of Utopian Placebos, Part II: Jackson Hole Meets the Texas Ratio
In the last commentary our thesis was that the economic landscape does not suffer from secular stagnation but rather from a complex and confused disequilibrium that diminishes expectations. Rather than focusing on the causes of this disequilibrium policymakers shift...Hypnotized by Dreams of Utopian Placebos: Subpar Performance in an Age of Diminished Expectations, Part I
We are dreaming. We desire utopias. We treat ourselves with placebo drugs and we are hypnotized by all of the above. The symptoms started in Japan in the early 1990s. It has been called Japanese malaise and it seems that is spreading. Subpar GDP growth rate, interest...Sign Up for Our Publications
