Has the Unleashing of Animal Spirits Time Arrived? A Little Caution due to the Doom Loop
A year ago equity and commodity markets were in a panic mode. Chinese tremors, fears of deflation, oil prices below $30 a barrel, declining commodity prices (such as copper), and corporate earnings recession had infused fear in the markets. Now, a year later we found...U.S. Economic Developments Meet European Politics: Upswing Targets Convergence
The equities market continues its upswing trend and as its tide rises, other equity markets around the world follow it too, given that expectations and economic fundamentals in other places around the globe (Asia, Europe) are rising too. A couple of weeks ago we...The Enigma of a Divergence: The Uncertainty Index vs. the Volatility Index
In last week’s commentary we wrote that the earnings, production, and income pictures look good and that the market has legs to make further earnings. The market continued in its upswing mode ignoring the above-average high multiples, but also the rising uncertainty...Corporate Earnings, Production, and Hourly Wages: No Enigma to Decipher
More than 65% of companies that have reported earnings in the last few days have beaten estimates, which is a little bit higher than the long-term average. So and as the graph below shows, it seems that the earnings recession is over and that corporate profits are in...Worldviews, Solipsism, and Chissiaran: A Random Walk Down the Boulevard of Invincibility
Collective hallucinations are dangerous. Undershooting carries risks, but overshooting could have much more serious consequences. Ignoring history is detrimental. Hubris backfires and lack of foresight demonstrates foolishness. My fear is that in this meta-modernity...Sign Up for Our Publications
