US Presidential Election and Market Perspectives: Asset Allocation in Times of Change
Within six days the US election will (probably) be over. Serious statistical models show that the outcome may be more uncertain than pundits predict. Some of the latest polls in swing states show a pretty tight race, while some national polls show the race being a...Trapped in the Noise of the Market: Rates and Momentum
Markets are looking for an opportunity to break free from the noise of going sideways. It could be that the recently announced deals in mergers and acquisitions could become the cornerstone for such a break. On Monday the S&P 500 came close to 2150 and temporarily...Credit Impulse and Currency Outlook: Kafka’s Clamence Ponders on Currencies’ Trajectory
This year marks the 60th anniversary since Kafka published his least understood philosophical novel titled “The Fall”. The novel is a series of monologues by its main character (Clamence). Clamence’s words echo a dark masterpiece of a person who has fallen from grace....Hyperkinesis and Financial Ecology: The EU and a Lesson from the Kudzu Weed
The markets seem to be suffering from hyperkinetic activity generated from too much kudzu collateralization, securitization, credit overextension, and central banking intervention. This has resulted in impulsivity across credit markets and the result is a form of...Complacency, Deflationary Bulls, and Inflationary Bears: Japanification in an Era when the Enemy of my Enemy is Still my Enemy
Lack of foresight is not a tactical mistake. It is a dangerous strategic error whose price is paid mainly by innocents over a long period of time. In April 1917, the government of Germany found an “ally” in the person of Vladimir Lenin. Lenin wanted to overthrow the...Sign Up for Our Publications
