Sic Tranit Gloria Mundi: Defining Moments in Global Financial History and the Undercurrent of Today’s Developments
There are revolutions, wars, and historical periods that have defined global developments and carry significant weight in shaping up the world economy to this day. There is little if any doubt that France during the Revolutionary Wars, Britain during the Napoleonic...The Powerhouse of Structural Changes: Co-integration, Co-movement, and Disintegration
By 460 CE the Roman Army was dominated by Germanic troops. By that time they had also forgotten a basic lesson that it is the army that elects the Emperor. By 475 CE, the barbarian chief Odoacer replaced the Roman emperor with himself. The citizens of Rome selected...The Fading of Shocks and the Complacency Spirit: A Realistic Midterm/Longterm View
There is a sense of a cyclical recovery around the world. The shocks of the last 8-10 years (financial crisis, EU debt crisis, commodities downturn) seem to be fading, and in their place we observe rising expectations regarding growth. The latest IMF report on the...Assessing Possible High Impact Outcomes: From Egypt to France, and from London to D.C.
As we go down the road where the improbable becomes probable and the non-tradable becomes tradable, we discuss below four possible outcomes that could alter the investment landscape. Those four are: The recently discovered offshore Egyptian energy resources; the...Complacency in the Midst of Market Cycles: Liquidity Pressures and Geopolitics
Money markets experienced some kind of distortion in the last 18-24 months due to global dollar shortages as the Fed got into the swing of “normalizing” rates. Money markets several times become the arteries of the financial system. If they get clogged, shortages are...Sign Up for Our Publications
